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The Causes of Inflation in Mongolia
Tsendsuren, Sayana ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
In this thesis, we study the causes of inflation in Mongolia. We estimate a small open economy VAR model for Mongolia. The model comprises of two blocks - China and Mongolia and we impose a block exogeneity restriction in regards with our estimation purpose. We assess domestic and external shock affect on price level of Mongolia using impulse response function and reveal the main contributors to the price variability utilizing the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). Therefore, we trace out that the external shocks affect the price significantly in comparison with the domestic shock. In addition, we can say that the price level is very susceptible under the supply side shock.
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Microeconomic Analysis for Evidence-Based Policy
Janský, Petr ; Bauer, Michal (advisor) ; Blundell, Richard (referee) ; Galuščák, Kamil (referee) ; Schneider, Ondřej (referee)
This dissertation thesis is focused on the microeconomic analysis of public policy in the Czech Republic. It consists of three parts, the first two parts deal with the analysis of tax policy; the third part of this thesis is focused on inflation differentials. The first chapter deals with the analysis of value added tax. The rates of value added tax (VAT) have recently changed in the Czech Republic, and I simulate the impact of these reforms. They are an example of changes in indirect taxes that change the prices of goods and services, to which households can respond by adjusting their expenditures. I first estimate the behavioural response of consumers to price changes in the Czech Republic by applying a consumer demand model of the quadratic almost ideal system (QUAIDS) on the basis of the Czech Statistical Office household expenditure and price data for the period from 2001 to 2011. I derive estimates of own- and cross-price and income elasticities for individual households. I then use these elasticities to estimate the impact of the changes in VAT rates that were proposed or implemented between 2011 and 2013, on households' quantity demanded and government revenues. One of the main findings is that the estimated increases in government revenues that take the consumer responses into account are...
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The Relation Between the Euro Cash Changeover and the Perceived Inflation in the Baltic Countries
Orosz, Előd ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Turnovec, František (referee)
The relation between the euro cash changeover and the perceived inflation in the Baltic countries Abstract This thesis focuses on the effect of euro cash changeover on inflation perception, and its relation to the inflation measured by central banks or by national statistical offices. We present an analyses of inflation gap in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at the euro introduction and detect its determinants by econometric methods. We use Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part examines the theoretical background of perceived inflation and focuses at the phenomenon of increased inflation gap at the euro introduction. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation gap. We find out that perceived inflation in Baltic countries does not show such a divergence, as it was presented at the establishment of the Eurozone. Moreover, we find out that education and available income in general has a small, but evincible effect on inflation gap observed at euro introduction.
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Why is inflation not decreasing in the Czech Republic?
Sommer, Martin ; Tůma, Zdeněk (advisor)
The paper presents a political-economy analysis of the Czech monetary policy in the mid-1990s. At the beginning of transition, the policymakers achieved substantial credibility as a result of their prudent anti-inflation policies. The high degree of credibility then temporarily created an opportunity for a deliberate choice between output and inflation. The outcome was a surprisingly high inflation of around 10 percent and a brief surge in output.
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Topics in central banking
Brož, Václav ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Tůma, Zdeněk (referee) ; Égert, Balázs (referee) ; Martin, Reiner (referee)
This dissertation consists of three research papers dealing with selected issues relevant for central banks after the global financial crisis. The post-crisis world has seen a significant strengthening of the role of central banks with regard to the financial system as well as the real economy. Correspondingly, agendas of some central bankers have grown substantially, encompassing among others monetary policy, financial stability (macro- and microprudential policies) as well as resolution mechanisms. This dissertation thesis reflects the broad focus of some contemporary central banks in three original research articles that concern current unexplored issues for monetary policy and financial stability in the European Union, the Czech Republic, and the United States, potentially bringing policy implications for the relevant authorities. The first article analyzes inflation convergence in the whole European Union (EU) over 1999-2017 and provides comprehensive and robust evidence that the process of inflation convergence among the countries of the EU was not permanently disrupted during the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, or the period of zero lower bound interest rates. Specifically, the convergence process did not noticeably weaken after the crisis and the occurrence of...
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Do Central Bank FX Reserves Matter for Inflation?
Keblúšek, Martin ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.
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Phillipsova křivka v zemích V4
Krejčová, Michaela
This diploma thesis deals with determination of the relationship between unemployment and inflation using regression analysis in V4 countries. Four models are tested. The first model is a simple model of the Phillips curve that examines the relationship between inverse unemployment and inflation. Two other models deal with the relationship between unemployment and inflation expectations. The latter model addresses the relationship between cyclical unemployment and unexpected inflation. This work also includes calculating the natural rate of unemployment and determining the standard deviation using the Delta method. This work also deals with cyclical unemployment and the presentation of supply shocks for the V4 countries.
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Ekonomické faktory ovplyvňujúce cenu dlhopisov v USA a v Nemecku
Ticháková, Simona
This bachelor thesis deals with the value of government bonds issued in USA and Germany, and the factors which influenced their market value development since the outbreak of financial crisis in years 2007 to 2017. Literature overview consists of two main parts, in first I address bonds in general, and in the second part, economic factors affecting market value of government bonds. Second part of my thesis compares American and German government bonds in conjunction with identification of the main factors influencing them in the reference period. Following research is focused on calculation of correlation between bonds market value and factors affecting it. The interest rates, which were supposed to have the greatest impact on bond’s prices, were statistically insignificant. Final chapter is dedicated to discussion of obtained results.
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