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Impact of business cycle on manufacturing industry in the Czech Republic
Havlíková, Kristýna ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Bolotov, Ilya (referee)
The diploma thesis titled Impact of business cycle on manufacturing industry in the Czech Republic deals with the manufacturing industrial production and its dependence on the current economic situation of two crucial trading partners of the Czech Republic, i.e. Federal Republic of Germany and France. At the very beginning the business cycle theory is defined, its evolution in selected countries is presented and the immense importance and great potential of the manufacturing industry in the Czech economy are described. Also, the given data are analysed and compared in order to find the relationship between the variables. Finally, the obtained results and outcomes are supported with a case study introducing a particular company and its figures.
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On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models
Andrle, Michal ; Brůha, Jan ; Solmaz, Serhat
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.
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Kapitál a monetární teorie hospodářského cyklu: Eseje o rakouské teorii kapitálu, úroku a hospodářském cyklu
Potužák, Pavel ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Holman, Robert (referee) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
This dissertation explores four big topics in the Austrian economic theory. Chapter 1 elucidates the Austrian theory of capital. It introduces basic tools that are further used in the analysis of the business cycle. It also clarifies some misunderstandings in this theory. Chapter 2 investigates the evolution of the interest rate over the business cycle that is predicted by the Austrian theory of economic fluctuations. Chapter 3 examines the pure time preference theory. It shows with the help of a simple neoclassical graphical and mathematical apparatus that there is a fundamental flaw in this theory. It suggests that the notions of want and good must be explicitly separated, and it concludes that the time preference as well as the subjective exchange ratio between present goods and future goods may take on any value. Chapter 4 explores the business cycle dynamics in the economy with permanently rising natural output. Simple monetary policy rule that was designed to eliminate economic fluctuations is discussed in detail.
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Central bank monitoring - Semptember 2009
Česká národní banka
Document contains latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. The Spotlight article: „Exit strategy from non-conventional monetary policy“. Selected speech: „Small lessons from a big crisis“ was presented by Andrew G. Haldane (Bank of England).
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Labour Market Adjustment since the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Czech Firms
Babecký, Jan ; Galuščák, Kamil ; Žigraiová, Diana
The paper reports how Czech firms reacted to changes in economic conditions in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 until 2013 and identifies specific patterns of employment, wage and price adjustment by firms. The results are drawn from a survey of firms conducted within the third wave of the ESCB Wage Dynamics Network (WDN3). Overall, while changes in demand were both positive and negative over the period, aggregate wage growth remained low, although more firms experienced an increase in average productivity over labour costs than a decline. Labour cost reduction was achieved mainly by reduction of new hires and by individual layoffs. The main obstacles to hiring workers were uncertainty about economic conditions, high payroll taxes and a shortage of labour with the required skills. The frequency of wage changes was lower in 2010–2013 than before and was attributed by firms inter alia to stronger competition. Wage freezes and wage cuts were still in use, while wage growth was more likely to be observed in very small and large firms and firms with a foreign owner. The frequency of price changes in 2010–2013 compared to 2008–2009 remained unchanged for more than 80% of firms. More frequent price changes were due to stronger competition and volatility in demand, while exchange rate changes contributed to higher frequency of price changes on foreign markets.
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Global Economy Outlook - February 2016
Česká národní banka
The February issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue we also consider how global imbalances in the world economy have changed since the start of the millennium in the context of the abating crisis period. The crisis has been reflected not only in a considerable worsening of the largest economies’ external positions (current account balances), but also in a deterioration of their domestic fiscal positions (public finance balances). Thus, an intensification of the twin deficit phenomenon is significantly complicating the process of reducing global imbalances in the world economy.
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Vývoj islandského národního hospodářství v období 1994-2013
Klement, Josef ; Zeman, Karel (advisor) ; Krebs, Vojtěch (referee)
The aim of thesis is to analyze the development of the national economy of Iceland in the period 1994-2013. In addition to the reasons for the collapse of the banking sector thesis examines the way the state handled the situation. The theoretical part deals with the theory of the national economy, the characteristics of the main macroeconomic aggregates, the current banking system and selected theories of the business cycle. The practical part presents economic and political characteristics of Iceland. It is followed by main analysis divided into two periods, each of which contains an analysis of the legal framework, institutional provision, development of key macroeconomic aggregates and a separate chapter devoted to the development of the banking sector. Research suggests that the overheating of the economy occurred due to the extreme expansion of the banking sector, expansionary fiscal policy and inappropriate monetary policy of the central bank. The State had to seek the help of the International Monetary Fund during the crisis. There has been introduction of capital controls to stabilize the exchange rate. The state let the banking sector go bankrupt and created new domestic banks. Subsequently fiscal indicators were stabilized, but not at the expense of the needy and households. The business cycle in Iceland is best described by the Financial instability hypothesis.
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Do the sales of new passanger vehicles develop procyclically?
Brožová, Dominika ; Kovanda, Lukáš (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
The thesis is focused on verifying the pro-cyclical relationship of sales of new passenger cars in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and the subsequent evaluation of the impact of macroeconomic variables in the period from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2015. In total, there are four different models estimated of multiple linear regressions of car sales, where for the Czech R. the estimation of different sectors of households and firms is available as well. By comparing the Czech R. and Slovakia regarding aggregate sales, fuel prices and gross domestic products are especially crucial and the pro-cyclical relationship is successfully verified. The economic crisis at the turn of 2008-2009 hit especially Slovakia, while the effect in the Czech R. was offset by a positive shock to fuel prices. For the model of households the procyclical relationship is denied unlike from the model of firms, shock to GDP therefore only deviate sales to firms. For Czech R. is also confirmed a significant relationship of the sales with interest rate or population growth.
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Is the development of the number of realized M&A transactions procyclical?
Červinková, Kristýna ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to reveal the relation between business cycle and the number of transactions considering mergers and acquisitions. For this purpose the appropriate macroeconomics indicators have been chosen. The base hypothesis, which stands for the procyclical development of transactions, was examined by regression analysis of panel dataset containing quarterly based data from The Visegrad Group countries in the period from 2000 to 2014. The ordinary least square method together with robust estimation of standard deviation provided the confirmation about positive relation of the quarter change of GDP as the main explanatory variable and the number of transactions. Nevertheless, more robust findings appeared in case of significance of stock markets and public debt. The positive relation of the stock price was proven to be in accordance with the behavioral theory. The increase in transaction activity is capitalized through the profit from the sold of overprized stocks. Unexpected result about positive relation of public debt required the specification of assumption about the lower preference of smooth consumption of The Visegrad group households.
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