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Context of macroeconomic development and energy sector in the Czech Republic and Austria in the period 2000 - 2012
Berka, Jan ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Ševčíková, Michaela (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to verify a connection between macroeconomic development and energy sector. This connection is examined with the data from the Czech Republic and with the data from Austria, both in the years 2000 - 2012. The theoretical part describes energetics as a natural monopoly and a resource of externalities. It includes the theory of monitoring the business cycle and financial analysis of companies. The first half of the practical part compares macroeconomic development of the Czech Republic and the ČEZ group. The similar comparison is made with Austria and the Verbund company. Second half of the practical part explains how economic policies influence the Czech energetics. This impact is being studied in terms of legislation, regulations, monetary and fiscal policy. The practical part ends with rating and valuation of costs that arise from the main energy resources. The link between energetics and macroeconomic development was discovered and proved thanks to the doubled analysis used in the thesis.
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Margins of Trade: Czech Firms Before, During and After the Crisis
Galuščák, Kamil ; Sutóris, Ivan
We investigate the extensive and intensive margins of trade of Czech firms in periods before, during and after the crisis of 2008–2009. The intensive margin explains most of the aggregate export growth in 2006–2014, which corroborates previous findings for other countries. The contribution of the extensive margin is smaller, explaining on average 39% of the aggregate export growth in 2006–2007 and around 25% to 30% of that in the post-crisis period. The lower contribution of the extensive margin may signal a lower rate of convergence of the Czech economy. The results indicate that the crisis had a more severe impact on small exporting firms and that exports to countries outside the EU gained more prominence in the post-crisis years. Our results are similar to findings from previous studies on the impact of participation in global value chains on firms’ trade. Specifically, a more negative impact of the crisis was observed for exports with higher import intensity. Overall, our results point to the importance of using disaggregated data in the analysis of countries’ export performance.
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The impact of the economic cycle to finance the defense of the Czech republic in years 2004-2014
Heres, Ondřej ; Chmelová, Pavla (advisor) ; Strejček, Ivo (referee)
This bachelor work examines the impact of economic performance on financing the defense sector in the Czech Republic in the years 2004-2014. The main questions are whether this influence is clear and the extent to which is essential for funding this sector. The work also provides a basic overview about development and structure of the Ministry of Defence budget in these years. The theoretical part contains theories of business cycle and public sector and briefly introduces the basic institutions that are tasked to provide a defense. The analytic part analyzes the expenditures and revenues of the Ministry of Defence and assesses their mutual influence and simultaneously the influence of GDP on these indicators. To compare with previous findings, the GPD growth rate and the growth rate of defense expenditures in selected countries of NATO are analyzed in brief in the last chapter. While findings based on data from the Ministry of Defence have rather anticyclical development of defense expenditures, in selected countries of NATO, the development is more procyclical. It highlights the very ambiguous impact of the economic cycle on expenditures in the defense sector.
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Intraday Dynamics of Euro Area Sovereign Credit Risk Contagion
Komárek, Luboš ; Ters, Kristyna ; Urban, Jörg
We examine the role of the CDS and bond markets during and before the recent euro area sovereign debt crisis as transmission channels for credit risk contagion between sovereign entities. We analyse an intraday dataset for GIIPS countries as well as Germany, France and central European countries. Our findings suggest that, prior to the crisis, the CDS and bond markets were similarly important in the transmission of financial shock contagion, but that the importance of the bond market waned during the crisis. We find flight-to-safety effects during the crisis in the German bond market that are not present in the pre-crisis sample. Our estimated sovereign risk contagion was greater during the crisis, with an average timeline of one to two hours in GIIPS countries. By using an exogenous macroeconomic news shock, we can show that, during the crisis period, increased credit risk was not related to economic fundamentals. Further, we find that central European countries were not affected by sovereign credit risk contagion, independent of their debt level and currency.
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Analysis of Financial Time Series in Crisis
LOPATÁŘ, Antonín
This bachelor thesis is focused on the methods of analysing an additive model of time series. The theoretical part is aimed on history of business cycle, structural and cyclic deflection and individual phases of business cycle. There are described individual theories of business cycle. Crisis as one of the phases is described closer. Further it introduces the methods used in practical part. The practical part contains analysis of individual time series. For example price of gold, LIBOR, PRIBOR, Gross domestic product and other. This time series are analysed by exponential smoothing, moving averages and other methods.
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Central bank monitoring - September 2016
Česká národní banka
Document contains latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. The Spotlight article "Brazil's ways out of crisis" focuses on economic and monetary developments in Brazil, which hosted this year’s Summer Olympic Games but whose economy is going through a deep recession. In our Selected Speech, the President and CEO of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard provides a new characterisation of the US economic outlook.
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ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES ON AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN YEARS 1993-2013 IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Ďoubal, Jakub ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Czesaný, Slavoj (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse the impacts of business cycles on individual segments of the automotive industry in the last 23 years in the Czech Republic. The areas analysed are sales and production of cars. Attention is also paid to the downstream industry of parts producers. The theoretical part deals with the theoretical approaches of the business cycle, basic methods of measurement cycles and, furthermore, theories related to the automotive industry. The analysis in the practical part is developed on this theoretical basis. The analytical section is divided in three parts according to three full cycles that went through the analysed time period. What was most apparent was the difference of every cycle. It is from this difference that the different impact of cycle on analysed indicators in each period comes. However, it is evident that the automotive industry is behaving procyclically. Most of the indicators are weakly or moderately cyclical, based on the correlation coefficient.
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Composite leading index and its role in the analysis of the business cycle in the Czech republic between 1993-2015
Hornová, Michaela ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
The main topic of my thesis is the problem of monitoring business cycles. Composite leading indicators are one of the options, how to make this monitoring. In my thesis I am going inside of the process of construction of composite leading indicator. I am comparing the methods of OECD, Eurostat and Conference Board. Special attention is dedicated to the methods of czech institutions as well. These methods are still being evolved and improved, which makes the analysis more difficult. Together with all the information about business cycle and economic policy in Czech republic between 1993-2015. I am judgeing the functionality of leading indicators for the monitoring of business cycle. Method of my analysis is SWOT analysis so the result of this thesis is mentioning of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threaths of the making and application of composite leading indicators.
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Relevance of leading indicators: the example of the global crisis in the US
Nečasová, Petra ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
Bachelor thesis is focused on composite leading indicators of economic cycle. Concretely examines indicators compiled for the United States in the period from 2000 to 2013. The theoretical part provides a comprehensive view of the indicators produced by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Economic Cycle Research Institute, The Conference Board and the Federal Reserve System. In the practical part I analyze these indicators and examine their relationship with the Industrial Production Index. Composite Leading Indicator, Weekly Leading Index and Leading indicator predicted the crisis the best. At the end of the practical part, I create my own composite indicators, based on the metodology used by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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Příspěvek k rakouské teorii hospodářského cyklu: Nejistota a cenová očekávání
Frömmel, Tomáš ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.
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