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Fundamental analysis of the exchange rate of EUR/USD
Ševčík, Václav ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is empirical verification of the fundamental theory of exchange rate determination in the case of the currency pair EUR/USD. The theoretical part is devoted to the issue of exchange rate theory, with emphasis on the importance of the currency pair EUR/USD, and major characteristics of the fundamental theory of exchange rate determination. Attention is also paid to methods of analysis of time series, which will be used in the analytical part. The analytical part is devoted to an empirical verification of the underlying theories. On the basis of these theories are developed econometric models, which are then tested using the methods of linear regression and cointegration. The results of the models and their relevance are discussed in conclusion.
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Currency crises and their prediction in region of Central and Eastern Europe
Staněk, Daniel ; Helísek, Mojmír (advisor) ; Pazour, Michal (referee)
This thesis analyses possibilities of currency crises prediction in several countries of Central and Eastern Europe region. The thesis is structured into theoretical and practical part. Theoretical part generally describes currency crises, its importance and includes concrete cases of currency crises. There are also stated possibilities of currency crises prediction and usable indicators. Practical part of the thesis identifies currency crises among countries of the referenced region. Identification of currency crises is made on base of simple currency approach and also on base of Market Pressure Indices, more comprehensive method. Then risk of currency crises inception is analyzed according to method of International Monetary Fund and by using Signal approach. Last section of the practical part analyses influence of capital market on domestic currency and potential of capital market for currency crises prediction.
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Selected Models of Exchange Rate Determination
Vrubel, Tomáš ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The aim of this Master Thesis is to summarize the modern theoretical models of fundamental determination of exchange rates. The Thesis contains of Introduction, four explanatory chapters and the conclusion. The first chapter provides the definition of traditional premises (PPP, IRP, expectations) and in the end of the chapter the 5-equation model is introduced. The second chapter focuses the attention on both equilibrium (Bilson-Frenkel) and non equilibrium (Dornbusch, Frankel) monetary models. In the end of the chapter there are also briefly mentioned Hooper-Morton's and Girton-Ropers models. The third chapter brings in the risk and it is focused on portfolio models. The last chapter describes the Lyons-Evans model of market microstructure based on order flow.
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Influence of Depreciation of Czech Crown Towards Euro on Czech Unemployment Rate
Sojka, Jiří ; Čermáková, Klára (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This work deals with an unemployment rate diference in the Czech Republic if Czech crown goes down towards Euro from the origin of an European currency until 2009. The first part of this work discusses Euro and its presumtions to influence Czech labour market. A connection between Euro and chosen macroeconomic indicators, which influence Czech unemployment, is shown there and the influence of Czech crown depreciation towards Euro with its impact to unemployment rate is explored too. There is a regression model used in the second part. It describes relationships of the exchange rate and the rate of unemployment. The objective of this work puts in light a fact that depreciation of Czech crown influences the Czech unemployment rate. If Czech crown goes down towards Euro about 1 CZK, the unemployment rate increases in 7,9 %. Czech currency and its cohesion with Euro is clear, which is improved in a practical example in the end of the work.
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Foreign currency in accounting
Zajíčková, Hana ; Müllerová, Libuše (advisor) ; Zelenková, Marie (referee)
The thesis describes questions of exchange differences in accordance with Czech generally accounting principle and in accordance with the International financial reporting standards. Accordance with Czech accounting principle is the choice of the exchange rate and method of evaluating and accounting for exchange rate differences. The second part of this thesis is focused on International financial reporting standards. It explains the concept of functional currency factors and its determination. It describes translation from the local currency to the functional currency and the translation from the functional currency to the presentation currency. The last part of thesis describes the functional currency in US GAAP.
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External Economic Balance of the Czech Republic
Beran, Michal ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The thesis analyses the trend in external economic balance of the Czech Republic since 2000. The main instruments for the analysis were found in level of balance of payments and external debt statistics. The emphasis is also placed on exchange rate of Czech currency which is considered to be one of the leading determinants of external economic relations. The main goal of this paper lies in examination of past, present and also expected future trend in external balance with respect to various indicators and to comparison with other EU members, especially with Central Europe region (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The thesis should provide general overview of external economic relations of the Czech Republic in situation when some European countries are being threatened by deep debt crisis and in some cases the life-line from European union or International Monetary Fund must come.
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The fulfillment of the Maastricht convergence criteria by Greece
Furicová, Veronika ; Kalínská, Emílie (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
The main objective of this work is the fulfillment of the Maastricht convergence criteria by Greece. The first chapter deals with the general characteristics, historical, political and economical development since World War II to the present. The second chapter shows and explains the Maastricht convergence criteria. The third chapter assesses the performance of Greece's convergence criteria before joining the EMU and fiscal performance during the membership in EMU. The first will focus on the implementation of the nominal convergence criteria in the 3rd stage of EMU, under which the Greeks as the only candidate country for membership were not admitted. The second objective pursued is the implementation of the fiscal criteria for membership in EMU from 2001 to present.
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The Japanese yen in the composition of international foreign exchange reserves
Vařenka, Marek ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis mainly aims to characterizeofficial foreign exchange reserves, the reasons for holding reserves, its composition, optimal size and historical development.Impacts of balance of payments and foreign exchange rate regimes are also mentioned. Among other reasons for foreign reserve accumulation, foreign exchange interventions are very important and relatively frequent use of foreign exchange holdings in Japan, therefore there is included one whole chapter dedicated do them. Currencystability,well developed financial markets and other factors are necessary conditions for currency to play a role as a reserve currency. These conditions are listed in the chapter Reserve currency. Recent and also historical development of currency composition of the foreign currency reserves is specified in the last chapter.
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Currency pairs and their development
Kotrba, Lukáš ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
The main objective of this work is to estimate and determinate methods to use when analyzing future development of exchange rate. The main goals have been achieved by a summary of past developements and listing of important elements that shaped the past and are shaping the present and also the future. Than followed the theoretical part, without that knowledge, we could not get through. I started from the definition of a currency pair, forex, macroeconomic effects, which are shapping the exchange rate more or less influence over the definitions of the market. This was followed by theoretical models of fundamental analysis, which aim to determine the exchange rate. I also added a technical analysis to fundamental analysis and in practical part. I fill real data in theoretical background and I try to determine the future exchange rate.
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