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Default Risk of Greek Government During the Crisis of 2010
Veselý, Oldřich ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Báťa, Karel (referee)
Many people have already questioned whether Greece would default: investors, economists, politicians and general public. The Greek debt crisis has also caused a great turmoil in the EU causing fears of its spreading to other countries with poor fiscal situation in Eurozone through bond markets. Finally the rescue package was prepared for Greece consisting of EUR 110 billion loan facility from both Eurozone and IMF. We study the Greek fiscal crisis in the thesis. We try to find its real causes in the historical chapter and we also show the methodology which can be used to assess the credit risk of Greek government using bond market information and CDS contracts information. In the empirical part we study the evolution of the probability of default of Greek government during the debt crisis using parsimonious model based on the bond market information.
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Credit swaps and CDOs and their use in the financial environment of the 21st century
Vágó, Ádám ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Hoffman, Andrej (referee)
The topic of this thesis is Credit swaps and CDOs and their use in the financial environment of the 21st century. The aim of this thesis is to examine how the market of these instruments works, show how they are traded and how diversely they can be used but also warns about the potential negative consequences in case these instruments are not handled with the required caution. The practical part of this thesis concentrates on the current situation on the credit derivatives market focusing on the above mentioned instruments. The role of CDSs and CDOs in the 2008 global financial crisis is examined with emphasis on the AIG case.
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Intraday Dynamics of Euro Area Sovereign Credit Risk Contagion
Komárek, Luboš ; Ters, Kristyna ; Urban, Jörg
We examine the role of the CDS and bond markets during and before the recent euro area sovereign debt crisis as transmission channels for credit risk contagion between sovereign entities. We analyse an intraday dataset for GIIPS countries as well as Germany, France and central European countries. Our findings suggest that, prior to the crisis, the CDS and bond markets were similarly important in the transmission of financial shock contagion, but that the importance of the bond market waned during the crisis. We find flight-to-safety effects during the crisis in the German bond market that are not present in the pre-crisis sample. Our estimated sovereign risk contagion was greater during the crisis, with an average timeline of one to two hours in GIIPS countries. By using an exogenous macroeconomic news shock, we can show that, during the crisis period, increased credit risk was not related to economic fundamentals. Further, we find that central European countries were not affected by sovereign credit risk contagion, independent of their debt level and currency.
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Application for Risk Management Reporting in SAP
Uhlíř, Michal ; Rychlý, Marek (referee) ; Zendulka, Jaroslav (advisor)
Hlavním cílem této práce je vyvinout aplikaci sloužící pro reportování správy rizik za použití nejnovějších technologií, které nabízí firma SAP. V první části je nastíněn koncept problematiky správy rizik, jsou vysvětleny klíčové pojmy a zmíněny některé problémy z této oblasti, se kterými se společnosti v dnešní době potýkají. Dále jsou vyjmenována a srovnána některá z komplexních softwarových řešení, které jsou momentálně dostupné na trhu. Práce pokračuje popisem technologií, které jsou využity při tvorbě výsledné aplikace. Proces vývoje zahrnoval analýzu stávajícího datového modelu, tvorbu nové datové struktury a její validaci a návrh samotného uživatelského prostředí pro zobrazování těchto dat. Výsledná aplikace umožňuje získávat správná data z databáze a zobrazovat je odpovídajícím způsobem.
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Business Plan – Building Brand Store With Apple Products
Viktorin, Ondřej ; Trunečková, Markéta (referee) ; Koleňák, Jiří (advisor)
The aim of this thesis is to draw up a detailed analysis of a business plan to build retail brand store with Apple products. The analytical part of this thesis is devoted to the selected market and to the conditions to build official Apple store. Processed business plan is based on real data, questionnaire and expert´s experiences in the field and try to determine the success of the business as precisely as possible. The financial plan includes necessary expenses and planned profits which shows in two versions what conditions must be done to achieve a profit.
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Financial crisis and moral hazard
Valtr, Jiří ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Neumann, Pavel (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on moral hazard in the recent financial crisis which was caused by the burst of the housing bubble in the United States of America almost nine years ago. The main contribution of this thesis is providing evidence of possibility to measure moral hazard. This measuring possibility is achieved by establishing key indicators which are linked to various types of moral hazard according to its origin or closest relation. The thesis also in part drafts a solution to moral hazard in the form of an effective regulation. This thesis is written comprehensibly and does not provide information about every detail of the financial crisis. Regardless of that it still provides most readers interesting and useful piece of information, which they probably have not encountered elsewhere.
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Vývoj trhu kreditních derivátů v období krize a jeho možná predikce
Dokulil, Miloš
This thesis is focused on the credit derivatives market. The aim is to identify and quantify the causal dependence of the development of credit derivatives market in relation to the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and on this basis the possible prediction. At first, it shows with the help of literature review of their present and history and gives a better look to the different types of credit derivatives. The following section deals with the use of these underlying instruments in practice, their possible trading, insurance, or speculation, whether on the OTC markets or organized exchanges. The following describes the events in the capital and commercial markets during the financial crisis that is between the years 2005-2010, from which are taken the data for the empirical part. The empirical part is based on correlation analysis (multiple regression model) of a few selected and described macroeconomic indicators enriched with Granger causality test. In the conclusion may be find the discussion of the results and possible recommendations for potential investors.
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Causes, progress, consequences and another aspects of the global financial crisis 2008 in international comparison
Novotný, Martin ; Dočkal, Dalibor (advisor) ; Urban, Luděk (referee)
The subject of this thesis is the description of trends in economy during global financial crisis in 2008. The main object of this work is to find causes and especially to analyze the mortgage bubble in financial markets, panic, uncertainty and risk spreading to other sectors. This work analyzes many consequences, which have been caused by financial crisis on global economy. This thesis also focuses on evaluation of important institution's influence, such as investment banks, insurance companies and rating agencies on financial crises. There are used microeconomic and macroeconomic indicators to analyze financial markets and national economies of countries which were affected by the crisis. Also is analyzed if interventions of central bank and government were eligible. This issue is discussed in part which describes economic cycles from perspective of the Austrian school of economics.
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Risks and options analysis of selected structured instruments
Balák, Tomáš ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor)
This paper is dedicated to structured financial instruments MBS and CDO. First chapter deals with present-day trends on capital markets with the focus on the securitization trend and credit default swap. Characteristics and evaluation of chosen investment instruments follows, along with the focus on the possibilities and risks connected with them. The last chapter of the work deals with the impact of constituent instruments on the onset of economic crisis and analyzes the possibilities of regulation and the status of rating agencies.
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The international financial markets crisis
Varga, Lukáš ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
This thesis is analyzing conditions which allowed the creation of the present financial crisis. In the first chapter I inscribe the view on the former types and models of crises. The second chapter deals with the progress of the crisis on mortgage market in the USA. Credit derivatives and structuralized commercial instruments are mentioned in the third chapter. In the fourth chapter I disassemble the transition of the mortgage crisis to the financial crisis. The fifth chapter is dedicated to the breakout into the global financial crisis which is followed by the description of the impacts in the sixth chapter. The last chapter is devoted to the future trend of the crisis and the estimated date of its end.
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