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Clustering and regression analysis of micro panel data
Sobíšek, Lukáš ; Pecáková, Iva (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee) ; Brabec, Marek (referee)
The main purpose of panel studies is to analyze changes in values of studied variables over time. In micro panel research, a large number of elements are periodically observed within the relatively short time period of just a few years. Moreover, the number of repeated measurements is small. This dissertation deals with contemporary approaches to the regression and the clustering analysis of micro panel data. One of the approaches to the micro panel analysis is to use multivariate statistical models originally designed for crosssectional data and modify them in order to take into account the within-subject correlation. The thesis summarizes available tools for the regression analysis of micro panel data. The known and currently used linear mixed effects models for a normally distributed dependent variable are recapitulated. Besides that, new approaches for analysis of a response variable with other than normal distribution are presented. These approaches include the generalized marginal linear model, the generalized linear mixed effects model and the Bayesian modelling approach. In addition to describing the aforementioned models, the paper also includes a brief overview of their implementation in the R software. The difficulty with the regression models adjusted for micro panel data is the ambiguity of their parameters estimation. This thesis proposes a way to improve the estimations through the cluster analysis. For this reason, the thesis also contains a description of methods of the cluster analysis of micro panel data. Because supply of the methods is limited, the main goal of this paper is to devise its own two-step approach for clustering micro panel data. In the first step, the panel data are transformed into a static form using a set of proposed characteristics of dynamics. These characteristics represent different features of time course of the observed variables. In the second step, the elements are clustered by conventional spatial clustering techniques (agglomerative clustering and the C-means partitioning). The clustering is based on a dissimilarity matrix of the values of clustering variables calculated in the first step. Another goal of this paper is to find out whether the suggested procedure leads to an improvement in quality of the regression models for this type of data. By means of a simulation study, the procedure drafted herein is compared to the procedure applied in the kml package of the R software, as well as to the clustering characteristics proposed by Urso (2004). The simulation study demonstrated better results of the proposed combination of clustering variables as compared to the other combinations currently used. A corresponding script written in the R-language represents another benefit of this paper. It is available on the attached CD and it can be used for analyses of readers own micro panel data.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Building and use of smaller computer networks
Kyzivát, Marek ; Pinkas, Otakar (advisor) ; Šmejkal, Ivo (referee)
The thesis describes the initial state of the computer network Basic Schools and Kindergartens Ohradní (ZŠMŠ Ohradní) in Prague 4 and then its reconstruction, which I largely contributed. ZŠMŠ Ohradní consists of four pavilions and from one building on the other side of the street. The aim of this study is to assess the initial state of the network and point out the shortcomings that we discovered. We found deficiencies in the operation stress tests, measurements and data cabling overall analysis. Original networks connectivity was 100Mb/s. Together with a colleague, we are network administrators. Furthermore, I am going to introduce a new form of network, which has identified deficiencies improved, by using on newer technologies. I will describe its structure, address allocation, active and passive components, and operated services. New network is capable of 1Gb/s, and its spine is going to be 10Gb/s soon. Benefits of this reconstruction is faster, more stable and more modern network that will facilitate the work of employees of ZŠMŠ Ohradní. To these improvements, I have mainly contributed by measurements. I participated in the design and implementation of new form of data network. I collaborated with fellow Poc to the configuration of active elements and network services in reconstructed network.
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The perspectives of tourism in the Canary Islands (with special focus on Gran Canaria)
Pazderová, Monika ; Abrhám, Josef (advisor) ; Havlíčková, Blanka (referee)
The Bachelor´s thesis is aimed at discussing tourism and analyzing diffferent perspectives of developement in the Canary Islands, namely in the island of Gran Canaria. The goal of this thesis will first be to evaluace the current situation of tourism in Gran Canaria. It is necessary to find the various perpectives of developement for this area, while also assessing strategic proposal plans in order to increase the competitive ability. The theorical section of this thesis is focused on tourism determination, and destination of tourism. In addition, the origin and developement of tourism in the Canary Islands is discussed. The practical part of this thesis is focused on tourism in Gran Canaria; the life cycle is applied to the destination of Gran Canaria, and there is a complete description of the attractions and infrastructure of the destination. Additionally, a SWOT analysis will take place analyzing the strengths, weakeness, opportunities and threats of tourism in Gran Canaria. In the final chapter, suggestions and solutions for tourism in Gran Canaria will be made based on strategic plans from the Canary institutions of tourism.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Process Analysis As the Basis for the Implementation of a New Information System
Kmochova, Zdena ; Říhová, Zora (advisor) ; Svatá, Vlasta (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the processes in the company POP service, Ltd., also to analyze the current problem in this company and to recommend and propose measures which eliminate the causes of the emergence of the problem. The causes originate from the aspects of the management of people and processes are identified through the analysis of processes associated with the problem and eliminated on the basis of proposals metrics and responsibilities for these processes. The theoretical part of the thesis is devoted to concepts in the field of process management. The theoretical part characterizes these concepts process management, business processes, process analysis and process modeling methods, process maps, graphical notation for writing business processes, business process improvement and analysis organization. In the second part of the thesis is presented the examined organizations POP service, Ltd.. Based on the analysis of the current state are defined vision, mission and goals of the organization. Then there is described a procedure of the analysis of the current state, which is process analysis and proposal of selected processes, metrics and responsibilities for these processes. Methods of analysis are SWOT analysis, analysis of the activities, structured interviews and process analysis. The result of this thesis is to analyze the selection of processes of the company POP service, Ltd., proposal metrics, define jobs and responsibilities and suggestions for improving the selected process.
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Communication Strategy of Komerční banka, a.s. with a Focus on the Youngsters
Bartůňková, Eva ; Postler, Milan (advisor) ; Jelínková, Jitka (referee)
Thesis explores communication strategy of Komerční banka, a.s. with a focus on the Youngsters. The aim of this thesis is an analysis of previous and current campaigns, corroborated by original research. The thesis comprises six chapters, the first two chapters dealing with theory, the rest dealing with empirical findings. The first chapter discusses the difference between marketing and commercial communication and kinds of commercial communication; the second chapter delves into the issue of communication strategy, its types and development. The third chapter consists of a presentation of Komerční banka, a.s. including an evaluation of the competition; the subsequent chapter discusses the characteristics of the G2 brand, its target group and includes an SWOT analysis. The content of the fifth chapter is a description of previous communication and of new communication campaign of the G2 brand. In the conclusion of the thesis, research results are assessed and future steps are recommended.
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Specifics of nursing care of a child patiens with oncological pain.
ČAŇKOVÁ, Helena
The topic of the thesis is: Specifics of nursing care of a child patient with oncologic pain. Children{\crq}s pain is a phenomenon surrounded by many myths and false information. It is also not sufficiently assessed and treated and often bagatelized by both nurses and doctors. Nurses play irreplaceable role in pain treatment, they are with the child patient more frequently then the doctor and are in close touch with the child{\crq}s parents. The care of a suffering child is a serious task in nursing. Treatment of a patient in pains requires a complex, holistic approach. Nurses, even if they diagnose pain properly, do not set an adequate nursing care plan and do not carry it out. Nurses have to defend interests of the sick child and must not let him/her suffer. The data was obtained by quantitative and qualitative research. The quantitative research was carried out by the technique of anonymous questionnaire. The questionnaire was made for the parents of children with oncologic disease. The qualitative research was carried out by the technique of semi-structured in-depth interview. The research sample consisted of nurses working at the Department of children{\crq}s oncology One of the aims of this thesis was to outline the problems in nursing care of a child patient with oncologic pain from the point of view of the parents. We observed if the parents had been informed about their child{\crq}s pain, if they know what symptoms they should watch in their child, if they know all the aspects of pain to be assessed and treatment methods to relieve the pain and also how nurses respond to their child{\crq}s pain. For this aim, a following hypothesis has been set forth: The parents of children patients with oncologic pain are educated about the possibilities of nursing care focused on relieving the pain. This hypothesis was confirmed by statistic testing. Another aim of this thesis was to find out the specifics of nursing care of a child patient with oncologic pain. Nurses think that the specifics of nursing care of a child patient with oncologic pain are not different from any other care of a child in pains. They just state that an oncologic disease is associated with pains caused by the disease itself or by diagnostic or therapeutic procedures. Therefore they consider a specific feature the fact that the pain is observed more intensively and the staff is more precise in relieving the pain. It is obvious from the research that it would be effective for both parties, both for the nurses and the parents, to use educational materials on pain intended for them. I suppose that if there were such materials available, the parents would not need to contact nurses repeatedly. There was also a positive finding in the research that 92.5% of parents stated that nurses respond to children{\crq}s pain within 10 minutes. Further, that nurses believe that the child has pains, which was stated by 98.2% of the parents.
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The Conclusion of a Contract under the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods in Comparison with Czech National Legislation
Krčálová, Kristýna ; Boháček, Martin (advisor) ; Levý, Jan (referee)
This Master's thesis focuses on the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG), better known as the Vienna Convention. The main purpose of this thesis is to evaluate conditions for application of this international treaty and to assess the contracting process under the CISG including the similarities and differences with the Czech national legislation. Finally, it seeks an answer to the question, which of these rules (international or national) are more advantageous for a Czech contractual party with respect to concluding a contract. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first one represents an introduction to the CISG, its origin and the Czech Republic's attitude to it. The second part identifies the conditions for application of the CISG and therefore defines a subject and an object of an international contract of sale under the CISG. Both third and fourth parts gradually introduce two phases of the contracting process (offer and acceptance) including the relevant case-law. The last chapter strives to complete the contracting process with an analysis of the exact moment, when a contract is concluded, as well as with an analysis of a potential battle of the forms and its impact on a contract conclusion.
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Potential of MIST and its influence on international trade
Gecko, Alexandr ; Bolotov, Ilya (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The thesis deals with the analysis of MIST markets (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) in comparison to BRIC countries. The aim of the thesis is to emphasise the attractiveness and potential of MIST economies for international business and investments relating to their growing competitiveness. The first chapter introduces world trends in international trade and it describes the origin as well as the development of the group. The carried-out macroeconomic and demographic analysis in the second chapter reveals strengths and weaknesses of the MIST. The third chapter describes trade activities of the MIST and its current position in international trade. The fourth chapter analyses the entrepreneurial and investment environment of the group as well as its level of competitiveness. The carried-out research in the thesis has shown that the MIST economies represent a perspective group of developing markets with potential for trade and investment activities.
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