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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Architectural database refactoring
Nguyen Trung, Hoa ; Palovská, Helena (advisor) ; Krch, David (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with database architectural refactorings. Its purpose is to describe each and every architectural refactoring method in detail on theoretical level with following author's own examples. These examples contain schema update mechanics and an outline of application code update. First of all, there will be an explanation of what refactoring stands for and what are the main differences between database refactoring and code refactoring. Following is detailed description of each and every architectural refactoring method with its principle, benefits and potential tradeoffs. The next part consists of author's own examples where update mechanics from theory are applied. Final chapter evaluates achievement of objectives, contribution of thesis and proposals on how can this thesis be extended.
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Design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform
Kabrhelová, Kateřina ; Novotný, Ota (advisor) ; Vysoký, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with the design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform Shopio. The first part describes the theoretical concepts of Business Intelligence and e-commerce focused on possible approaches to performance measurement of electronic commerce. Furthermore there is a comparison of analytical tools for measuring performance of e-shops which are available on the Czech market. The second part of the thesis first describes the e-commerce platform and the current status of the reporting module. Then the requirement analysis is conducted for the purpose of identifying the current company client's needs and requirements. The new Business Intelligence solution is designed based on the identified requirements described in the previous chapters. This solution is then tested and verified with the use of real e-shop data. The main purpose of this thesis is to refine the current status of the reports and provide a better tool to measure the e-shop performance for the e-shop owners.
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Analysing company's behaviour and communication on social networks
Němec, Milan ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Jelínek, Ivan (referee)
This thesis focuses on measuring company´s communication and behaviour on social networks. To capture the interaction between the company and its users the thesis uses web analytics tools. Therefore, the main objective of the thesis is analysis of these tools. To achieve this goal, the thesis characterizes social networks and their marketing opportunities for business promotion. Thanks to this, needs of using these tools is identified. The needs are: competitive analysis, optimizing communication, measuring achievement of objectives or detection competitive viral content. Research questions were determined and then analysis tools found answers to research questions. It was found that the tools provide various views of data and create a complete system for measuring and analysing behaviour and communication companies on social networks. The results were validated in a case study focused on the Facebook profile of the University of Economics in Prague. The study analysed the interaction profile of the school and its users and compared with others schools. In the results the analysis tools are validated and it is designed recommendation for improve engagement. This thesis revealed strengths and weaknesses of tools for measuring company´s communication and behaviour on social networks. It was found that these tools have wide range of use. They can be used for understanding the company's profile, its users, for purposes of competitive analysis, monitor corporate goals and optimize communications on social networks.
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The Conclusion of a Contract under the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods in Comparison with Czech National Legislation
Krčálová, Kristýna ; Boháček, Martin (advisor) ; Levý, Jan (referee)
This Master's thesis focuses on the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG), better known as the Vienna Convention. The main purpose of this thesis is to evaluate conditions for application of this international treaty and to assess the contracting process under the CISG including the similarities and differences with the Czech national legislation. Finally, it seeks an answer to the question, which of these rules (international or national) are more advantageous for a Czech contractual party with respect to concluding a contract. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first one represents an introduction to the CISG, its origin and the Czech Republic's attitude to it. The second part identifies the conditions for application of the CISG and therefore defines a subject and an object of an international contract of sale under the CISG. Both third and fourth parts gradually introduce two phases of the contracting process (offer and acceptance) including the relevant case-law. The last chapter strives to complete the contracting process with an analysis of the exact moment, when a contract is concluded, as well as with an analysis of a potential battle of the forms and its impact on a contract conclusion.
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Possibilities of Big Data use for Competitive Intelligence
Verníček, Marek ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Šperková, Lucie (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the use of Big Data for the methods and procedures of Competitive Intelligence. Among the goals of the work is a toolkit for small and large businesses which is supposed to support their work with the whole process of Big Data work. Another goal is to design an effective solution of processing Big Data to gain a competitive advantage in business. The theoretical part of the work processes available scientific literature in the Czech Republic and abroad as well as describes the current state of Competitive Intelligence, and Big Data as one of its possible sources. Subsequently, the work deals with the characteristics of Big Data, the differences from working with common data, the need for a thorough preparation and Big Data applicability for the methods of Competitive Intelligence. The practical part is focused on analysis of Big Data tools available in the market with regard to the whole process from data collection to the analysis report preparation and integration of the entire solution into an automated state. The outcome of this part is the Big Data software toolkit for small and large businesses based on their budget. The final part of the work is devoted to the classification of the most promising business areas, which can benefit from the use of Big Data the most in order to gain competitive advantages and proposes the most effective solution of working with Big Data. Among other benefits of this work are expansion of the range of resources for Competitive Intelligence and in-depth analysis of possibilities of Big Data usage, designed to help professionals make use of this hitherto untapped potential to improve market position, gain new customers and strengthen the existing user base.
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Valuation of the company Jihoměstská sociální a.s.
Hovorka, Luboš ; Smrčka, Luboš (advisor) ; Strouhal, Jiří (referee)
The goal of this master´s thesis is to perform an evaluation of the company Jihoměstská sociální a.s. on the date of evaluation of December 31st, 2015, for the purpose of a possible sale to a private company. The thesis consists of two parts: theoretical part and practical part. The theoretical part describes process and methods, which are applied in the practical part. The practical part contains an analysis of previous company´s results and forecast of the future by 2020. Next comes the valuation of Jihoměstská sociální. The conclusion discusses possibilities of sale.
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ELECTRON BEAM REMELTING OF PLASMA SPRAYED ALUMINA COATINGS
Matějíček, Jiří ; Veverka, J. ; Čížek, J. ; Kouřil, J.
Plasma sprayed alumina coatings find numerous applications in various fields, where they enhance the properties of the base material. Examples include thermal barriers, wear resistance, electrical insulation, and diffusion and corrosion barriers. A typical structure of plasma sprayed coatings, containing a multitude of voids and imperfectly bonded interfaces, gives them unique properties - particularly low thermal conductivity, high strain tolerance, etc. However, for certain applications such as permeation barriers or wear resistance, these voids may be detrimental.\nThis paper reports on the first experiments with remelting of plasma sprayed alumina coatings by electron beam technology, with the purpose of densifying the coatings and thereby eliminating the voids. Throughout the study, several parameters of the e-beam device were varied - beam current, traverse velocity and number of passes. The treated coatings were observed by light and electron microscopy and the thickness, structure and surface morphology of the remelted layer were determined and correlated with the process parameters. Based on the first series of experiments, the e-beam settings leading to dense and smooth remelted layer of sufficient thickness were obtained. In this layer, a change of phase composition and a marked increase in hardness were observed.\n
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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Individual human odor as a forensic trail in criminal proceeding made by contact or contactless transmission and its resistance to physical agents
Santariová, Milena ; Bartoš, Luděk (advisor) ; Chmelíková, Eva (referee)
The dissertation thesis consists of four papers that have been published in scientific journals.
Study n. 1
The need to recover evidence from water is quite common in criminal investigation. The article deals with the possibility to collect human scent from such objects and with the ability of specially trained dogs to match such scent samples with scent samples collected from detained suspects. During an experiment, designed as a blind one, it has been proved, that human scent can survive on submerged objects and can be later used for scent identification.
Study n. 2
To collect odors the Czech Republic Police use special fabric sorbents manufactured under the registered mark ARATEX. Before use the fabric sorbent is treated by water vapor sterilization. After the scent identification the sorbent is destroyed. The goal of the study was to verify if the vapor sterilization is effective enough to remove human scent that has already penetrated into the sorbent structure or in other words if the sorbent can be exposed to vapor sterilization and then used again. Specially trained dogs were used to match starting odors with target odors in the line-ups. The results showed that dogs are able to correctly match human odors even after they have being exposed to vapor sterilization.
Study n. 3
The purpose of the study was to determine the temperature at which the human scent is degraded so that a dog would not be able to identify it. In contrast to expectations, eight dogs used in the experiment almost flawlessly identified human scents from five scent donors exposed to temperatures of 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 500°C, 600°C, 700°C, and 800°C. Only two of the dogs were able to identify 5 of 15 scent samples exposed to 900°C. No dog identified a scent exposed to 1000°C. Our study verified heat survivability of human scent far beyond existing expectations.
Study n. 4
We tested the hypothesis that if odor fallout (the release of a human odor onto an untouched object) in human subjects exists, then holding a hand above an absorbent will produce a detectable scent which will be subsequently matched in a detection test by trained dogs. Scents were collected from seven males to sterile cotton absorbent squares. The left hand was used to get the control scent and the right hand served as the target scent. Each experimental subject was sitting and his left hand was laid down on a cotton square for 3 min. The right hand was held 5 cm above another cotton square for 3 min. The scent identification was done by two specially trained police German shepherds. Both dogs performed 14 line-ups and correctly matched the collected scents of all test subjects. The results suggest the existence of human odor fallout, whereby a human scent trace is left by humans even if they do not touch an object.
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