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Potential sources of currency and banking crises in emerging markets
Brožka, Michal ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee)
The thesis examines potential sources of currency crisis, banking crisis and twin crisis in a region of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe and Baltics. The text assumes some basic knowledge of the theories of financial crisis and, thus, ommits some relevant details in the theoretical parts. The thesis aids at fading variables, which could signal vurnerability of a country to a curency, banking and twin crisis. In the second chapter we introduce a financial crisis typology. The text also briefly shows the theoretical and empirical studies of the financial crisis and introduces definitions of currency, banking and twin crisis. In the third chapter we identify the periods of financial crisis in the given region. Then we introduce the explanatory variables. In the fourth chapter we estimate logit model to explain the conditional probability of all the three types of financial crisis. In the fifth chapter we estimate the out-of-sample conditional probability of occurring crisis. In the end we discuss the results and possible recommendation for economic policy or investors. We find that some macroeconomic variables are significant when explaining financial crisis. For all three types of financial crisis these variables were significant: Share of total foreign debt to foreign reserves, interest rate differential, excessive credit expansion (its share to GDP).
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Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Regimes During And After Currency Crises
Zadák, Miroslav ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
Currency crises have become an essential part of one's economy life. The periodicity of currency crises and its implications towards the real economy is an issue which the international economics should bear in mind. The thesis which I am presenting tries to give an overview how the exchange rate regimes interact with the currency crises. Firstly, the Market Pressure Index (MPI), which is used for catching the crises, is introduced. Then after the introduction chapters I use gathered data to analyze the observed crises. The last chapter is there to give a summary about obtained knowledge. The most valuable information, regarding the currency crises, is that the stricter the monetary regime after the currency crises is the less of the output occurs. This is the main finding emerged from the pre and post analysis of monetary regimes. Another finding is that the loss of output is primarily connected with a shift from any pegged arrangement to a floating arrangement. The shifts which took place under the pegged arrangements completely do not seem to have an impact towards the real output. Finally, Real Exchange Effective Rate seems to be an element which connects all the studied crises. This opinion reflects the current research topic in international economics.
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Currency crises and their prediction in region of Central and Eastern Europe
Staněk, Daniel ; Helísek, Mojmír (advisor) ; Pazour, Michal (referee)
This thesis analyses possibilities of currency crises prediction in several countries of Central and Eastern Europe region. The thesis is structured into theoretical and practical part. Theoretical part generally describes currency crises, its importance and includes concrete cases of currency crises. There are also stated possibilities of currency crises prediction and usable indicators. Practical part of the thesis identifies currency crises among countries of the referenced region. Identification of currency crises is made on base of simple currency approach and also on base of Market Pressure Indices, more comprehensive method. Then risk of currency crises inception is analyzed according to method of International Monetary Fund and by using Signal approach. Last section of the practical part analyses influence of capital market on domestic currency and potential of capital market for currency crises prediction.
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Financial crisis
Petráš, Marek ; Moravec, Lukáš (advisor)
The work focuses on the approach of the financial crisis and specifically focuses on the monetary crisis in Czech republic in 1997. Discusses the theoretical causes and consequences of various types of financial crises. The focus of this work is analysis of the Czech republic as a transition economy during the years 1990 to 1998. Deals with a period of rebirth of centrally planned economy to a market economy, developing financial and capital market development as well as various indicators of economic transformation. The work will also focus on the critical year 1997 and the associated monetary crisis. Analyzes the decision of the Government and Central bank and their impact on country's economy.
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Currency crisis in Czech rep. in 1997 and its alternative scenarios
Otřísal, Gabriel ; Skopeček, Jan (advisor) ; Svoboda, Miroslav (referee)
This paper is dedicated to the first currency crisis in the Czech republic, which took place in 1997. It analyses the period perceding crisis, the development of the very crisis and its impacts. The main aim of this paper is to identify the crisis' roots and to map them. On this ground it consequently forms a hypothesis, that with a different mix of monetary and fiscal policy, nonexecution of currency interventions or with a sooner abandonment of the pegged exchange rate, we could have witnessed a different scenario. The paper is also complemented by a binary model of currency crisis prediction and an interview with a participant of the 1997' events.
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The role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises
Vránová, Jana ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis is devoted to the role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises. The first chapter elucidates basic terms concerning exchange rate, e.g. quotation, convertibility, central parity. In the second chapter there is every particular regime and its role in crisis described in detail. The term "monetary crisis", its reasons and consequences are explained in the third chapter. This is put into practise in the fourth chapter, which deals with the Czech crown's monetary crisis in 1997. The last chapter analyses the impact of the implementation of the supranational currency on the trend of the macroeconomic indicators.
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Currency crises and the role of International Monetary Fund
Dostálek, Marek ; Helísek, Mojmír (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Thesis analyses role of International Monetary Fund in currency crises its proceedings and instruments and thereof arising criticism. In the first chapter there are stated definitions of currency crises, described their causes and possibilities of prevention. Short description of the Fund and used instruments in its operations are also included. The main focus is on analysis of the approach of the IMF to significant currency crises since 1990's. Mexican, south-east Asian, Argentinean and Icelandic crises are analyzed. As a practical aspect of the thesis approach of the IMF to currency crisis in the Czech republic in 1997 is examined as well. In analysis there is always stated overall description of the crisis, approach of the IMF to mitigation of the crisis and thereof arising experts' criticism. In the last chapter there is analysis of certain reports and commissions that dealt with Fund's operations and suggested reforms. Experts' opinions (Kenen, Sedlacek, Jonas) of the IMF's functioning and its summary are also part of the chapter.
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Financial crises, identification, causes and precautions
Valeš, Tomáš ; Půlpánová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Hradil, Dušan (referee)
The main goal of this paper is to provide complete view about financial crises. Paper is di-vided into the six chapters whereas we explore the definition of crises, than history, causes, indicators and anti-crisis precautions. In last chapter we apply all theoretical observations to case study of Nordic banking crises from the beginning of the 90s in last century. We can't expect the crises to vanish completely because they are natural part of both finan-cial system and whole economy but for which they are extremely dangerous too and that's why the crisis, when it breaks out, must be at every moment managed and under control.
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Monetary crisis and state bankruptcy in Argentina
Kubíčková, Tereza ; Burgerová, Jiřina (advisor) ; Jílek, Josef (referee)
The Bachelor thesis analyses the issue of financial crises, the dominant theme is monetary crisis in Argentina. The first part focuses on theoretical causes of crises, possibilities of their prevention and attempts to anticipate coming economic problems. The work deals with the study of Argentina's systemic crisis in the second section. We can observe on historical emergence of economy and behaviour its representatives that country had conditions leading to depression for long time. The work tries to answer questions like whether government was able to avoid the crisis and why its economic incidences were so catastrophical. The extend of the adverse effects is shown on main macroenomic indicators by the help of tables and graphs.
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