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Global Economy Outlook - June 2014
Komárek, Luboš ; Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana ; Adam, Tomáš ; Novotný, Filip ; Klíma, Milan ; Benecká, Soňa ; Hošek, Jan
Výhledy HDP, inflace, předstihových ukazatelů, úrokových sazeb, měnových kurzů a cen komodit. V rámci rubriky „Zaostřeno na…“ obsahuje zpráva analýzu "Roční vyhodnocení předpovědí obsažených v GEVu".
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Economy of Chile in 1960s and 1970s with Accent on Market Reforms after 1973
Strejčková, Klára ; Pekárek, Štěpán (advisor) ; Ševčík, Miroslav (referee)
This bachelor thesis puts the stress on the analysis of economic reforms approved in Chile in the 60's and 70's years of the 20th century. The focus of this work is profoundly dedicated to the analysis of two important macroeconomic indicators: developments of inflation and trade exports, bearing in mind the context of the coup in 1973 which is seen as a direct consequence of the communist rule of the Salvador Allende's Cabinet (1970-1973). The Allende's Cabinet strove to transform the Chilean economic society into a socialist one. The bachelor thesis has validated a hypothesis stating that the pro-market reforms approved after 1973 led to diversification of the Chilean export as well as a gradual and progressive stabilization of the country's inflation that had reached as 350 % during the socialist Allende's government. This work brings a comparison of two very different economic doctrines that formed Chile in the 70's of the last century. There is being compared a socialist government approach, having focused on nationalizing of the private sector, to the liberal government's approach aimed at decreasing the public sector, privatization as well as tearing down international trade barriers.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Impact of low oil and natural gas prices on the economy of Qatar since 2014
Šamánek, Ondřej ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Hasík, Gabriel (referee)
The bachelor thesis examines the impact of the oil and gas prices slump, which befell the world in 2014, on the economy of Qatar. The main objective of the thesis is to evaluate if and to what extend the price collapse influenced the relevant economic indicators and behaviour of the state and companies active in the affected field. The selected objective is examined using the method of data comparison, namely before and after the price slump, and with the help of the case study, in which the qatari company operating in the oil and gas is examined. From the conducted analysis it is possible to conclude that Qatar was directly influenced by the oil and gas prices collapse: its GDP slumped, fiscal deficit increased. The analysed company also experienced troubles caused by low prices: one year after the price slump, total amount of assigned tenders to company decreased substantially and historically high number of tenders was cancelled. Conclusions deriving from the thesis might be applied to other oil and gas export economies in the Persian Gulf, for fundamental traits of such economies are shared with the economy of Qatar.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
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Global Economy Outlook - November 2016
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the relationship between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate over the last ten years. The results show that the inverse relationship between the Brent price and the nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar still applies, helping dampen fluctuations in the dollar price of oil in “non-dollar” economies.
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Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
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Public Opinion on the Pension System and its Reform - December 2012
Ďurďovič, Martin
December’s survey of CVVM comprised a bloc of questions concerning public opinion on the pension system in the Czech Republic. This press release presents a more comprehensive analysis of what stand people take against the current pension system and the possibility of its reform. 57 % of respondents express opinion that the current pension system needs change. About one third of Czechs (33 %) approves the introduction of the second pillar of the pension system. At the same time, only 17 % of respondents agree with the current form of the pension reform.
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Global Economy Outlook - September 2016
Česká národní banka
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the closing of the output gap in OECD countries in the current low-inflation environment. We point out that the output gap is currently closing at near-zero inflation rates rather than at rates close to 2% (corresponding to the generally accepted price stability criterion). The current output gap and inflation outlooks signal a gradual return to the output gap closing at consumer inflation rates of approximately 2%.
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Analysis of Social and Economic Development of the Municipality Jindřichův Hradec
Petrovičová, Jana ; Husák, Jakub (advisor) ; Martina, Martina (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the social and economic development of the South Bohemian town Jindřichův Hradec. Thesis is divided into two parts. The theoretical part is focused on the development of regions, regional policy, settlement theory and municipality development. In empirical part of thesis the town Jindřichův Hradec is characterised, and then the analysis of following social and economic indicators is made: population, economy, transport and technical infrastructure, social facilities and environment. Results of this analysis are used as basis for SWOT analysis, which shows strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the town. Based on this analysis the thesis evaluates whether town provides favourable conditions for the life of citizens and then future areas of development are suggested.
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