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Dynamika inflace v Česká republice: Odkad novokeynesiánské Phillipsove křivky
Milučká, Daniela ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Recent breakthrough studies by Gali and Gertler (1999), Sbordone (2002) and Roberts (2001) argue that the New Keynesian Phillips curve (based on Calvo pricing model) is empirically valid concept and they conclude that the real marginal costs are preferred driving force to output gap in inflation dynamics for open economies. Neiss and Nelson (2002) and Gali, Gertler and Salido (2001), in turn, contradict that to date, there has been only little empirical evidence to support this statement. Neiss and Nelson (2002) add that "once output gap is defined consistently with economic theory, the gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve has a fit with data which is at least as good as the real marginal costs-based one". For this purpose, my study investigates relationship between output gap and inflation described in the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. Study estimates key coefficients of the hybrid gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve, with both forward- and backward-looking inflation components, in the Czech Republic for periods 2000Q1 - 2012Q4 using Kalman filtration. My findings suggest that (i) output gap has a significant impact on Czech inflation dynamics (ii) share of forward-looking agents predominates to backward-looking agents in the Czech Republic and (iii) Czech inflation seems to be significantly driven by change in import prices.
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Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
Bulíř, Aleš ; Hurník, Jaromír ; Šmídková, Kateřina
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of in flation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced - form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the r eported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across fa ctors, time, and countries.
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Impact assessment of tax policy with static CGE model regarding environmental protection in Czech Republic
Smejkal, Tomáš ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
At the beginning of the year 2014 carbon tax should be introduced in Czech Republic with the main focus on decreasing CO2 emission from firms not involved in EU ETS. Potential repercussions of this regulatory tool depend on multiple complex events occurring within the economy. In response a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with the base year of 2009 was created. This model is able to identify complex events within the economy and simulate initiation of the tax itself. As a result of this model there is a conclusion that not all sectors will decrease their demand for newly taxed fossil fuels and that an increase of consumption for relatively less taxed fuels for instance natural gas might be expected as a result of the tax initiation. Carbon tax will be according to the simulation results indirectly but significantly influencing the energy sector, which will in spite of the relative cut-price of input fuels respond with decrease in electricity production. Consequent higher electricity price will then cause additional costs for taxed sectors. Important conclusion is also the fact that rational behavior of economic agents could lead to a lower emission reduction than is currently being expected and even further increase in the tax rate beyond 15 EUR/tCO2 would probably not lead to a significant reduction of CO2 emissions.
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Impact of online user reviews on demand for PC and video games
Veselá, Anna ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Hurník, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis examines impact of online user reviews, expressed in 5-star rating system, on demand for PC and video games. Used weekly data are collected from www.amazon.co.uk for period 2000 - 2012. The thesis contributes to discussion which takes place between supporters of superstar theory and supporters of long tail theory. Panel structure of the dataset referred to application of fixed effects model for estimation of basic and extended model. Both estimates proved negative influence of assigned number of stars on sales rank. Basic model estimated influence of one unit change of stars on rank by 9 positions, extended model estimated this change to be 10 positions. Quantile estimate also proved negative influence of stars on sales rank. The influence is strongest for the lowest quantile of dependent variable (tau = 0,05) representing 5 % best-selling titles, where one unit change of stars causes change of 35 positions in opposite direction. With increasing quantiles this influence decreases to zero. It proves that within the market for PC and video games online user reviews contribute to superstar effect.
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Fiscal consolidations in Czech republic in 2002-2012
Zmítko, Milan ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The subject of this diploma work is to analyze proposals of fiscal consolidations in the Czech Republic and their following implementation in the years of 2002 to 2012. This work is trying to answer a question whether these proposals of the fiscal consolidaions were elaborated in agreement with research conclusions in the given field and whether they were successful in the sense of reduction of a deficit of the public budgets and public debt. In the first part of this work recent empirical studies with the following recomendations in the terms of realization of a fiscal consolidation are presented. Subsequently, a theoretical background in the form of keynesian and, so called, non-keynesian (expansionary fiscal consolidation hypothesis) effects of consolidation on economy is discussed. In the second part of this work an analysis of the proposals and implementation of the fiscal consolidations in the Czech Republic are presented with an attention to the evolution of the public budgets deficits and the public debt dynamic. The work uses, so called, narrative approach which is based on a study of open public documents from the archives of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Parliament of the Czech Republic and the Czech National Bank. In the conclusions of this analysis it is stated that not a single implemented fiscal consolidation was successful in the terms of a reduction of the public budgets deficits and the public debt.
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The costs anf benefits of a patent regime
Třísková, Julie ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Hurník, Jaromír (referee)
This thesis deals with patents and their impact on innovative activity. Patents represent some kind of regulation of a free market which should improve market failures and create incentives for innovation activity. This stimulation should be then reflected in the growth of technologies. The relation between patenting and productivity which represents the growth of technologies is analyzed on panel data comprising of Finland, Denmark, Italy, Great Britain and the Netherlands. The analysis is undertaken on the industry level, namely on chemical industry, as firms in this industry consider patents as being an efficient form of invention protection. The outcomes of my analysis imply a difference between short term and long term relation between patents and productivity. Patents do not seem to influence productivity immediately, they seem to have a negative impact in the long run though.
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Comparison of Discounted Utility Model and Hyperbolic Discounting in Intertemporal Decision Making
Koranda, Martin ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Hurník, Jaromír (referee)
Article compares two basic models of intertemporal decision making used for computation of discount rate. In application part it is tested if there are so called anomalies of discounted utility model in preferences of real agents. Article examines Sign Effect, Magnitude Effect and preference reversals by discount rate. For measuring of discount rate and for identifying of these anomalies it is used a questionnaire method of expressed preferences. The comparison of both models is firstly theoretical and then in the aplication part they are compared with a data. It was proved in aplication part that there is evident Sign Effect, Magnitude Effect and preference refersals that indicates inconsistent time preferences. It was observed that people in real life discount rather hyperbolically than exponentially. Annual discount rate measured from mean and median data is 94,47% and 52,26% respectively.
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Supply-side performance and structure in the Czech republic (1995-2005)
Dybczak, Kamil ; Flek, Vladislav ; Hájková, Dana ; Hurník, Jaromír
In this paper, writers apply the aggregate production function to approximate the path of potential output. Writers use a time-varying NAIRU to derive the amount of potential labour and a newly developed measure of capital services to account for the productive impact of capital. In addition, trend total factor productivity is estimated. Production functions for the key sectors (Agriculture, Industry, etc.) are also calculated, exploring the growth accounting approach and decomposition of total factor productivity growth.
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