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Euro and the Effect on Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Analysis
Gabaš, Ondřej ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Euro and the Effect on Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Analysis Ondřej Gabaš The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the impact of common Euro- pean currency on bilateral trade. Using data from 1993 to 2015, we employ structural Gravity model of trade on the sample of 19 European Monetary Union members and 25 developed countries. In our analysis, we use two different methods to account for the endogeneity, country-pair fixed-effects and Baier and Bergstrands (2009) specification of the Gravity model esti- mated by OLS. In order to examine the effect of missing observations, we employ Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimator. Last, we focus on the adoption of the Euro as a reason behind the effect of trade diversion. The results of all three models show that the creation of the EMU had sta- tistically insignificant effect limiting to zero. In the case of fixed-effects and OLS, the estimated effect is negative, while in the case of the PPML, we found a positive impact. In addition, the results of our analysis show that the adoption of the Euro did not cause a trade diversion. 1
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The Importance of Non-Price Competitiveness: Oil Downstream Sector in Europe
Sláma, Ondřej ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis investigates the role of price and non-price competitiveness factors using a relative export price index, introduced by Benkovskis and Wörz (2016), that is adjusted for changes in quality and taste. First, we replicate their model employing an updated dataset, confirming previous results. Then, the framework is used to study the recent developments in the Europe's oil product market. Given the saturation of the market, decreasing demand, and converging prices, importance of non-price competitiveness factors, such as quality, increases. The results suggest that the problems of the underinvested oil downstream industry in Northwestern European producers are caused not only by decreasing aggregate demand, high costs, and low margins, but by non-price competitiveness factors as well. We find profound improvements in product quality in CEE countries, following substantial investments into the sector and market consolidation. Both regions are at risk of rising imports of high-quality products from the Middle East, Russia and USA. This thesis provides a comprehensive picture of price and non-price competitiveness developments of all players in the highly competitive European oil downstream market.
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The impact of China's demographic policy on its current GDP growth
Rotar, Karina ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The topic of this paper is relation between the current demographic policy of China and its GDP. A large number of papers have been already written on the subject; however, there is still a space for theoretical analysis and empirical estimation: use more recent data, find new variables and relations. In this thesis we have performed a research based on panel data on 31 Chinese provinces for the years 1995 - 2015. Based on Solow growth model, we chose gross regional product of each province as dependent variable; gross capital formation, foreign direct investment and joint variable of percentage of ethnic minorities multiplied by birth rate have been chosen as independent variables. As an estimation technique we use fixed effects model. Empirical estimation led us to the following findings. Firstly, the impact of the one child policy on economic growth of China is negative. Secondly, the impact of the foreign direct investment on gross regional product is insignificant. Thirdly, high percentage of ethnic minorities in the population of the region negatively affects its economy. We come to a conclusion that the government of People's Republic of China has to further adjust the demographic policy in order to secure further sustainable growth. JEL Classification Keywords demography; one child policy;...
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Social Inequality and Green Energy: The Case of India
Rakshit, Shoumyadeep ; Salamon, Janusz (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The problems of social inequality has plagued the Indian society since the history known. The caste system and its intersection with other religions have compounded the situations even further. This study focuses on the issue of marginalization between the three religious communities of India, namely Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam. Furthermore this investigation try to propose a solution to this ensuing problem of marginalization by involving the case of green energy sector and its components. The potential that green energy entails for the economy will be studied at close quarters and evidences will be portrayed to see the positive effects. The creation and realization of the fertile grounds for the intersection or the juxtaposition of green energy over marginalization will be studied by combining the two philosophies of complex equality and equality of condition. The investigation reveals that marginalization can be solved by introducing Green energy on a large scale. The proposed model under the architectures of the conceptual frameworks of Spheres of Justice and Development as Freedom creates Green Energy as an independent sphere of influence that shows positive effect in reducing Inequality by interacting with other spheres of influence. Keywords Social inequality,green energy,HDI,Capability...
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The effect of the New Silk Road on EU-China trade
Philipps, Andreas ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
The thesis tries to investigate which impact the new Silk Road announced 2013 by the Chinese president has on EU-China trade potentials. The so called OBOR initiative is an infrastructure project that aims to promote trade facilitation along the ancient Silk Road. The initiative includes more than 60 countries. The gravity model of trade will be applied to run a simulation exercise to estimate trade potentials from the EU to China and vice versa. The results suggest that China can increase its trade potential to the EU. Among the EU countries there are winners and losers. Those countries which participate in the initiative will benefit from an increased trade potential others will lose trade potential.
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Risk in international trade
Svobodová, Michaela ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Cazachevici, Alina (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to define and classify international trade risks and provide an overview of key types of international trade operations. Furthermore, it describes the process of risk analysis, including the following decision-making, and outlines the most important tools in risk mitigation. Most importantly it uses a micro-founded gravity model to find a link between political risk indicators and international bilateral trade flows. Results were estimated using OLS and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator and multilateral resistance terms were approximated with use of Taylor series and dummies. Key words: International trade, Risk, Political risk, Gravity model
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Strategy of Slovak Republic's government to use higher education as an investment into human capital
Smereková, Erika ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Mouralová, Magdalena (referee)
Bc. Erika Smereková Strategy of Slovak Republic's Government to use higher education as an investment in human capital Abstract The Master thesis on the topic "Strategy of Slovak Republic's government to use higher education as an investment in human capital" presents results to the following research question: To what extent is it a part of strategy of Slovak Republic's educational policy to use higher education as an investment in human capital? The thesis specifically focuses on the idea of human capital contributing to growth of economy and society, however it does not oppose and refuse other importance and value of human capital. The thesis presents theoretical background of the concepts of human capital, higher education and the higher education as an investment in human capital. In the analytical part, there is research of Governmental strategic documents concerning higher education presented; international discourse and other related studies considered; and results of empirical research based on interviews with experts on higher education in the Slovak Republic presented. The results of analysis are, for example, that based on legislative regulation, long-term strategy of government serves only as a guideline for individual universities/colleges, which are obliged to prepare their own long-term...
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Comparative Analysis of Determinants of Trade in Services: Cases of Ireland and United Kingdom
Saktor, Ira ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis aims to estimate determinants of Services Export from Ireland and United Kingdom. The main contribution of the research lies in the multiple aggregations and categories at which the determinants are examined. Also, this thesis is up to date, to the best knowledge of the author, one of the most exhaustive and deep studies applying gravity model of trade to the exports of services. The core of this thesis consists of the evaluation of determinants for Travel and Business Travel for both, Ireland and United Kingdom; and subsequent analysis of the differences. Furthermore, other categories are discussed. Gravity Model with additional explanatory variables is estimated using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator and robust inference is based on large sample properties. We find that the impact of distance largely depends on category for which the model is estimated. Moreover, we have found substantial impact of both trading partners' GDP and perhaps surprisingly, relatively large and statistically significant impact of common legal origins, regardless of category and aggregation. On the other hand, we have found no evidence of significant impact of trade agreements. JEL Classification F01, F14, C23, C52 Keywords International trade; Determining factors of decision making of...
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Preventing the optimal Outcome - Free-Riding at Charles University
Kibitzki, Jonas Moritz ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Group work is pervading modern society's life with potentially huge advantages but also the peril of motivational losses. This master thesis focuses on the latter ones, namely on free-riding and social loafing, in the educational context. I conducted a field research at the Institute of Economic Studies at Charles University in Prague. The results are set into context with existing studies from the US, scrutinizing the generalizability of these studies. Students of this sample consider teamwork as relatively neutral, appreciate the possibility to learn from each other the strongest and consider free-riding as the biggest disadvantage. Free-riders are described as poorly prepared, having trouble to complete work at home and delivering poor quality work. As remedy, students prefer to be able to pick a team on their own. This thesis can partially confirm prior research but also contradicts some anterior findings since free-riders in this thesis are not described as behaving distractively and students do not primarily want instructors to grade them on their individual performance.
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