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Optimization of oil production by OPEC countries
Pilátová, Markéta ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Rečka, Lukáš (referee)
Almost 4 years of low oil prices and excess supply call the relevance of OPEC for current oil market into question. Therefore to investigate its role, this thesis examines the optimum oil production of individual OPEC countries accenting the consequent profit. Firstly, Cournot's model is employed to find equilibrium price and output on the oligopolistic market. Secondly, model considering OPEC and Russia as the Stackelberg leader with competitors forming oligopolistic fringe helps to uncover the potential of the recent car- tel of OPEC and Russia. In both models, data from the year 2016 with different levels of elasticity ranging from -0.1 to -0.2 are utilized. Our re- search suggests that all OPEC members could have increased their profits by forming a non-cooperative oligopolistic market, where prices would reach up to 81.7 USD/bbl. Moreover, as a part of the cartel with Russia, OPEC could increase its joint profits by almost 27 % compared to the oligopolistic market, benefiting from coordinated output cuts followed by a steep growth in price. Thus we can conclude that either OPEC lost its power over the oil market or attempted to maintain its market share and drive higher-cost producers out of the market.
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Evaluation of Effects of "Cash for Clunkers"-like programs on car markets and macroeconomic situation
Fiebig, Florian ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Bachelor's Thesis Proposal Institute of Economic Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Author Florian Fiebig Supervisor Mgr. Ing. Vilém Semerák PhD. Proposed topic: The Impact of German policy, cash for clunkers, on the Czech market in regards to price level and output. Topic characteristics After the financial crisis in 2007-08, governments all over the world tried using several policies in order to promote growth and stability for their economies. On July 1, 2009, the USA launched its policy "Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)", commonly known as "Cash for clunkers." It was a program designed to boost car sales, by giving the US residents an economic incentive swap their old and economic inefficient cars for brand new models that are more fuel efficient as well as produce less CO2. In the same year, Germany tried to promote growth and stability using the same policy/program. However, this policy did not just had an impact on the German economy, but its neighbors as well. In addition to that, it is interesting to find out if this policy was beneficial to implement or rather harming the economy even further. Although several papers conducted research on the effects of the cash-for-clunkers policy, I will focus on the effects that the German policy had on the Czech economy with...
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Convex functions and their generalization
Krtek, Jiří ; Hladík, Milan (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
In the present work we study properties and relations between convex functions and their generalizations. We commence with definition of convex functions and we get to differentiability and searching for extreme points through basic properties as continuity.We continue with quasiconvex, explicitly quasiconvex and pseudoconvex functions. Through their definitions and basic properties we get to relations between them and convex functions. We can find even theorems about composition of these generalizations here, which enable us easier to find, whether given composite function is (explicitly) quasiconvex or pseudoconvex. This work also contains a section dedicated to minimalization of these generalizations. There are mentioned some other generalizations of convexity at the conclusion of this work, which aren't analyzed so much.
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The Inflation-Output Variability Relationship in the CEE countries: A Bivariate GARCH Model
Kubovič, Jozef ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Global optimization in practice
Figurová, Katarína ; Lachout, Petr (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Many practical applications can be formulated as global optimization problems. In this work the global optimization problem will be reviewed and some of the methods that have been proposed. Predicting the 3D form of protein from their linear sequence is one of the applications of global optimization. This problem can by formulated as a problem of finding a global minimum of energy function. Some basic information about proteins, their potential energy function and used models is given. Next, we described some of the algorithms used for determining the structure of proteins.
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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used together with other leading and coincident indica- tors to...
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Fighting Fake News with Accuracy: Dual Processing Perspective
Harutyunyan, Mikayel ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
The phenomenon of "fake news", or misleading online content, is increasingly worrisome due to its large-scale socio-economic impact. Researchers and practitioners attempted to understand what drives the virality and believability of fake news and how to reduce its influence. This research aims to shed light on these questions. Building upon a theoretical account positing that people share fake news because they simply fail to engage in deliberate thinking, we designed an accuracy prompt intervention to encourage people to think effortfully. In a pre-registered study conducted via Prolific (N = 520), we find limited evidence supporting accuracy prompts stylized as warning labels, but only for increasing sharing discernment in true, not fake news. The veracity of news articles does not impact sharing intentions, despite having a sizeable effect on accuracy judgments. This and other findings support the dual processing theory of cognition in the context of fake news. Predispositions towards more intuitive thinking increased belief in fake news and higher distrust in true news. Conversely, a better ability to engage in effortful thinking increases truth discernment. In addition, confirmation bias decreases truth discernment and increases sharing intentions. Politically concordant true headlines are...
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Daylight Saving Time and Traffic Safety: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Mironova, Olga ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Interní / Internal Abstrakt V této prace analyzujeme vliv střídání zimního a letního času, DST, na dopravní nehody v krátkém období a efekt tmy v dlouhodobém období. Použitím modelu regresní diskontinuity a negativního binomického regresního modelu odhadujeme, že dopad DST zvyšuje o 7 % počet celkových nehod v krátkodobém období a efekt temnoty významně zvyšuje všechny typy nehod v dlouhodobém období v České republice. Výsledek práce ukazuje, že letní čas během celého roku by mohl snížit počet všech typˇu nehod.
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