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Identifying the causal link between the desiccation of Lake Chad and Boko-Haram recruitment in the Sahel region
Bharkhada, Jayesh ; Anceschi, Luca (vedoucí práce) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
The relationship between the effects of climate change and developing security issues around the world are becoming increasingly complex as the effects of climate change become more dangerous. Climate change impacts food, energy and water supplies and causes the mass loss of life and international displacement, these are effects felt most notably by those who experience poverty or rely on natural resources for their livelihoods (Environment, 2017). This thesis highlights a theatre of conflict involving the relationship between those who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and those who seek to take advantage of their weaknesses. The vulnerable group in question are those who operate across the agricultural sector in the Sahel in West Africa, their livelihoods are endangered by the desiccation of the region's main water source, this being Lake Chad. As Lake Chad continues to shrink Boko-Haram have been capitalizing on the community vulnerabilities that have been exposed and have increased recruitment efforts as a result. A close analysis of the shrinking of Lake Chad and Boko-Haram recruitment increases garners data so compelling that one can create a causal link between the two factors. This causal link is what the thesis strives to create, it does so with the reliance on a vast...
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Managing state-militia relations
Waddington, Michael ; Aslan, Emil (vedoucí práce) ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (oponent)
Title- Managing State-Militia Relations Subtitle- Divide and Control 25/07/2022 Glasgow Student Number: 2610868 Dublin City Student Number: 592498 Charles Student Number: 39388528 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree Of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 20050 Supervisor: Emil Aslan Date of Submission: 26/07/2022 Abastract Militias are playing an increasing role in an array of conflicts across the globe. This makes understanding how states can successfully manage these groups vital as they have both the potential to be key counterinsurgency tools, as well as the causes of instability and unnecessary violence. Existing research on state-militia relations highlights many mechanisms used to shape the partnerships between these groups. However, they have failed to acknowledge the impact the organisational structure of militias has on shaping these partnerships. This dissertation investigates this gap in research by exploring the role decentralisation of militia leadership plays in the management of state-militia relationships during civil wars. States seek to limit the independent capacity of militias while protecting their anti-rebel capacity. Existing study of the mechanisms through which this is achieved have focused on identity and...
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Terrorists or trafficking victims? An analysis of how the UK Prevent policy frames those at risk of joining terror groups abroad
Slater, Caitlin ; Anceschi, Luca (vedoucí práce) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
The aim of this research is to analyse whether the Prevent policy in the United Kingdom has resulted in the labelling of the Muslim community as 'suspect' and to assess the impact this has on potential victims of terrorism related trafficking. The strategy was first implemented in 2003 in the wake of 9/11 and in the early years of the 'War on Terror'. It has been accused of being Islamophobic and playing a large role in labelling Muslims as a suspect community. Prevent is a referral system through which anybody who causes concern regarding extremism can be reported. Once reported the case is assessed and it is decided if it will be dismissed, signposted to other services or taken further (UK Government 2019). This report will analyse statistics released by the government regarding Prevent referrals as well as case studies through which it is evident that the policy creates a suspect community. The rise of ISIS in 2011 led to a rise in people travelling to join in the following years. Among these people there were children aged under 18. The international definition of human trafficking lays out that there does not need to be proof of deception involved in order for a child to have been a victim of trafficking (OSCE 2021). Prevent is the policy that would be employed if there was believed to be risk...
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Lethal crossroads: The evolution of Taliban violence in response to counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021
Mccafferty, Sean ; Biagini, Erika (vedoucí práce) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent) ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (oponent)
Lethal Crossroads: The Evolution of Taliban Violence in Response to Counterinsurgency Strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021. July 2022 Presented in partial fulfilment for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21861 Date of Submission: 24/07/2022 Student Number Glasgow: 2188272M Dublin: 20109547 Prague: 19142078 Supervisor Dr Erika Biagini Abstract This thesis examines how the Taliban's use of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) evolved in response to changing counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. The work aims to identify the role of state counterinsurgency strategies in affecting variation in IED use by insurgents. The evolution of methods of violence in Afghanistan has rarely been focused on. Yet, the Taliban's return to power in 2021 amid the withdrawal of the last coalition forces necessitates reflection on the conflict across academia and policy making. To investigate the evolution of the IED this research employs a longitudinal case study design applying qualitative research methodologies such as the constant comparative method to analyse three distinct phases of insurgent and counterinsurgent violent competition in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. An evolutionary theoretical framework outlined by Veilleux-Lepage...
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Risk assessment: VNSAs' ability to achieve CBRN capabilities
Lucas, Makenzie Troi ; McDonagh, Ken (vedoucí práce) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
Academics disagree on the risk of VNSAs being able to build or acquire CBRN weapons. Their analysis is based on motivation, geographical factors, potential targets, and VNSA group attributes. Missing is the detailed investigation of how and where a VNSA obtains the necessary precursor materials and the type of security surrounding common materials used for CBRN weapons. This paper will explore the possible routes an actor could take to acquire the knowledge, skills, and materials necessary to make an operable CBRN weapon. Case studies are used to show past routes that allowed VNSAs to achieve capability and the type of weapon and attack utilized. The implementation of regulations, both in response to CBRN attacks and their effectiveness in preventing VNSA CBRN weapon capability, are analyzed. Public online forums, weapons manuals and weapons research along with past prosecuted criminal CBRN attacks revealed the financial capacity needed to acquire materials as well as the technical capacity required to build a successful CBRN system. Existing databases logging insecurity in nuclear facilities, radioisotope thefts, chemical and biological incidents and more are used to establish trends among past and present pursuits and use of CBRN weapons. Viable routes to CBRN capability remain reenforcing the...
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Gender equality, women's participation in the post-conflict society, and civil war recurrence
Drevená, Katarína ; Aslan, Emil (vedoucí práce) ; Kotvalová, Anna (oponent)
Veľké množstvo odbornej literatúry dokázalo, že vnútroštátne konflikty sa často vyskytujú v krajinách, ktoré už zažili občiansku vojnu. Tento opakujúci sa vzorec prinútil viacerých výskumníkov analyzovať, ktoré faktory prispievajú a ktoré znižujú riziko opakovania vojny. Táto diplomová práca sa zameriava na znovu sa opakujúce občianskej vojny cez prizmu rodovej rovnosti. Budem tvrdiť, že väčšia miera rodovej rovnosti môže znížiť riziko obnovenia vnútroštátneho konfliktu. Ak sú krajiny organizované podľa noriem rodovej nerovnosti, reprodukuje sa rovnaké zaobchádzanie aj voči ostatným skupinám v spoločnosti. Na druhej strane, spoločnosti s väčšou rodovou rovnosťou môžu tieto vzťahy transformovať na rovnako tolerantné vzťahy s tými, ktorí sú v krajine vnímaní ako iní, odlišní a cudzí. Okrem toho socializácia a spôsob výchovy detí zohrávajú dôležitú úlohu v tom, ako sa budú správať v dospelosti. Menej patriarchálne spoločnosti s nižším dôrazom na normu dominancie vytvárajú priestor pre normy tolerancie, rešpektu, mieru, slobody a rovnosti, čo má pacifikujúci účinok na správanie štátu a ľudí v ňom. Preto v práci predostieram hypotézy, že čím vyššia je politická, ekonomická a sociálna participácia žien, tým dlhšie trvá mier po občianskej vojne. Kvantitatívna analýza, v ktorej bol využitý Coxov model...
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Countering Religious Extremism and Online Radicalization in Uzbekistan
Khakimov, Farrukh ; Anceschi, Luca (vedoucí práce) ; Fitzgerald, James (oponent) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
From the early days of its independence the Republic of Uzbekistan considered religious extremism and terrorism as the most serious threat to national and regional security. During the 1990s internationally designated terrorist organizations: "The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" (IMU), "The Islamic Jihad Union" (IJU)1 , Central Asian branch of "Hizbut-Tahrir al Islamiya" (HT) and other radical groups emerged in Uzbekistan as opponents to secular political system of the newly independent state - Republic of Uzbekistan. Due to strict counterterrorism policy of Uzbekistan the level of the threat in the country steadily declined, however, religious extremism and radicalism have not disappeared as major radical organizations moved to neighbouring Afghanistan and Tajikistan; some of which still conduct covert activities within the country and abroad. In addition, the recent emergence of different radical militant groups in Afghanistan such as Katibat al-Imam al-Bukhari (KIB) and Katibat Tavhid wal Jihod (KTJ), which have returned to the region from Syrian civil war, caused concerns for Central Asian countries, especially for Uzbekistan as these radical militant groups are fighting in the north of the Afghanistan, not far from Uzbekistan's border (Cornell & Zenn, 2018). Moreover, with the development of...
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Contemporary conceptualisations of anti-drug efforts in Central Asia
Supueva, Zarina ; Berg, Julie (vedoucí práce) ; Connolly, Catherine (oponent) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
Since the end of the Cold War, the security agenda has shifted from a strictly state-centric focus to one focusing on protecting individuals and the international community. The nature of the new security threats has challenged national security, thus encouraging joint regional and international cooperation. One of the significant risks posed to security is the rapid proliferation of organised crime, which entails a variety of different activities that pose a danger humankind. With illicit trafficking being a substantial financial resource for organised crime groups, along with the significant societal and health risks of illegal drugs, this paper focuses on one of the main trafficking routes from Afghanistan, the world's leading opium producer, to Central Asia. While the number of known trafficking routes is always changing, there are several general routes that are used to smuggle Afghan drugs, the Balkan, Northern, and Southern routes. Since becoming independent in the 1990s, the Central Asian countries are still in the development stages of both establishing their legal systems and exercising effective policies, while at the same time being challenged by chronic economic underdevelopment, high levels of corruption, and transnational threats. Thus, this research will study anti-drug efforts in...
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Counterterrorism strategies as a consequence of terrorism: understanding United Kingdom's CONTEST 2018
Orozbakieva, Aizhan ; Aslan, Emil (vedoucí práce) ; Aliyev, Huseyn (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
The relative peace that the world citizens enjoy today keeps being sabotaged by forces that kill and injure innocent civilians via terrorist attacks. In recent times, a number of violent attacks took place between 2013 and 2017 in all parts of the world. The territories that have been affected the most are the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and Western Europe. While terrorism in the MENA region, for instance, was mostly carried out by local forces, in Western Europe it was either external powers or domestic perpetrators who have been indoctrinated by foreign radicals. Western European states started becoming more cautious and alert. As a consequence of terrorism, new counterterrorism strategies have been written and implemented. The following research project seeks to analyse and interpret the United Kingdom's counterterrorism strategy in order to understand the dynamics of the legitimisation of security- oriented policies. The UK has been selected as a case study because it has predominantly struggled with the phenomenon of Northern-Irish related terrorism, long before the infamous September 11th , 2001 attacks in the US. Post-2001, the UK has been mostly targeted by jihadi- inspired terrorism. In response to the growing threat, the country initiated and implemented strategies to reduce...
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Hybrid Warfare' or 'Weaponisation' of Information? Comparative study of the evolution of Russian assertive (dis)information actions
Topuria, Revaz ; Cheskin, Ammon (vedoucí práce) ; Murphy, Karl (oponent) ; Aslan, Emil (oponent)
Russian assertive actions over the last decade have led some observers to think that Kremlin is employing fundamentally new concepts of armed conflict. Subsequently, scholars came up with a number of buzzwords and ill-defined concepts such as 'hybrid warfare' and 'Gerasimov Doctrine'. This paper believes that novelty of Russian actions is not in terms of its military, but rather the specific nature of operations employed by Kremlin had to do more with the way military was integrated with other instruments, mostly state-run and coordinated information operations. Thus, the project puts a whole new emphasis on information operations and claims that while in certain cases Moscow still uses conventional military, Kremlin's new plan is to achieve goals through information online in the first place, rather than fight the enemy on the battlefield. As paper intends to analyse how Russian information strategy has evolved, it employs quantitative and qualitative content analysis to examine narratives built by RIA Novosti and Russia Today/RT during Russo-Georgian War of 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014. The results show that Russia has learnt its mistakes from Georgian case as in 2014 pro- Kremlin media was more sophisticated and relied on using contested areas of international law to depict Russian...
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