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Alleged Chinese Currency manipulation: the case of Yuan in relation to the USD from 2005 to 2020
Belon, Sander ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
Currency manipulation has been an increasingly infamous studied topic espe- cially since the US accusation of Chinese currency manipulation in the sum- mer of 2019. Such accusations raise the question as to what extend the Chi- nese RMB exchange rate might be considered misaligned. This paper seeks to identify grounds of the accusation of currency manipulation by applying the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model (BEER) to indicate possi- ble misalignment. Annual data from 1980 to 2019 is employed for which this paper will emphasize on the period of 2005 to 2019. The utilised Johansen co-integration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) suggest a consistent undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate from 1980 to 2019. Such undervaluation ranges from -4.623% to -2.016% with a mean undervaluation from 2005 to 2019 of -2.464%. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Currency Manipulation, Vector Error Correction Model, China, Renminbi Title Alleged Chinese currency manipulation: the case of the Yuan in relation to the USD from 2005 to 2020. Author's e-mail sander@belon.be Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz rozmezí od -4,623% do -2,016% s průměrným podhodnocením od roku 2005 do roku 2019 ve výši -2,464%.
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Modelling ethanol production in simultaneous equations model of global food demand and supply
Kozák, Miroslav ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
This thesis conducts an econometric analysis for the relationship between food price and ethanol production. A system of simultaneous equation models for the demand and supply for food are estimated, paying attention to the effect of ethanol production. The two-stage and three-stage least-squares estimation methods are adopted, which explicitly account for endogeneity in the system. Using annual data from 1981 to 2020, it is found that the ethanol production has little economic impact on food price. This may be closely related with inelastic demand and supply with respect to price that have been found in this study, where exogenous shocks such as an increase of ethanol production may have small effects on price. JEL Classification C12, C13, D12 Keywords Ethanol, Endogeneity, Food Price, Elasticity, Si- multaneous Equations Model Title Modelling ethanol production in simultaneous equations model of global food demand and sup- ply Author's e-mail kozakmiroslav92@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail karel-janda@seznam.cz
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Measuring Air Transport Industry Linkages: Input-Output Analysis
Tax, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
This thesis examines linkages of the Czech air-transport sector to the rest of the Czech economy using the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) within the input-output analysis. In order to estimate air transport total linkages on the Czech economy together with linkages air transport has with its upstream and downstream industries, three different forms of hypothetical extractions using two input-output models (the Leontief and the Ghosh models) were applied on the World Input-Output Tables (WIOTs). The Leontief model enabled quantification of the total and backward (upstream) linkages, whereas the Ghosh model was used to measure forward (downstream) linkages of air transport. Moreover, upstream and downstream domestic industries, that would be hit the most by the extraction of air transport from the Czech economy, were identified using the corresponding models. The results of the research allow to estimate how the rest of the economy would be affected by the Czech air transport's shutdown (for example due to travel restrictions connected to the Covid-19 pandemic) and help to identify industries hit the most by such industry closure.
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Where do universities recruit researchers from?
Macháček, Vít ; Srholec, Martin
Where do university researchers come from? How many remain at the same institution where they began doing research? How many have come from elsewhere? Does the tendency to employ researchers originally from the same place markedly differ across universities from different countries? How does this tendency differ between disciplines and over time? From the author affiliations in the Scopus citation database, we found how many researchers are currently based at the same university they were affiliated with at the beginning of their research careers. If their early articles were published under a different organization, we traced whether this was in the same country or abroad. We do not directly measure ‘academic inbreeding’ in the sense of universities hiring their own graduates, because due to differences in publishing practices, a researcher’s early articles may not have been published under his or her alma mater. However, in many disciplines, particularly natural sciences, this is likely to be the case. Our findings are presented for eleven large disciplines and our comparison covers eighteen major universities in fourteen countries, including the new EU member states of the Visegrad group: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. Generalizations are difficult to make, as each discipline looks a bit different. Overall, however, the most inward-looking institutions in employing researchers prove to be the national flagship universities in the Visegrad countries. In contrast, hiring researchers originally from outside is most prevalent in the leading universities in the United States and the United Kingdom, such as Princeton and Oxford. The Visegrad universities appear to be similar in their tendency to employ researchers originally from the same university to KU Leuven, the University of Vienna and Lund University in many disciplines. The main dividing line does not seem to follow the traditional ‘East vs. West’ differences, but rather tends to highlight the gap between the institutions at the top of global university rankings and the rest. Not surprisingly, the flipside of employing researchers whose research careers began at the same university is low internationalization. Cosmopolitan universities in smaller countries have the highest shares of researchers with foreign’ origins, particularly ETH Zürich, which contrasts with a strong national focus in universities in the Visegrad countries. This analysis is original and its results are not available elsewhere. The findings should be of interest not only to research managers, academics and doctoral students who are based at the universities in the study, but also to policy-makers and the broader public. Human resources management issues tend to be often underrated in research evaluations, although they are a key factor in the development of universities.
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Working in Prague but living in Central Bohemian Region, is it financially worth it?
Bíro, Lukáš ; Macháček, Vít (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The thesis analyses the costs of rental offers in Prague vs. four districts in CBR (Central Bohemian Region): Kladno, Příbram, Kolín, and Mladá Boleslav. We use data from the real estate agency to calculate the net present value of the costs of each apartment and compare it between the capital city and the districts in CBR. To do that, couples of the apartments (one from Prague and one from CBR district) are created based on matching characteristics. We assume individuals commute to Prague every workday and estimate their transportation and time costs. We evaluate 6 different scenarios and perform a sensitivity analysis of five different variables to see their effect on the probability that Prague is more expensive than one of the four districts mentioned above. The results suggest that Mladá Boleslav is unprofitable while the other three areas are comparably expensive to Prague in case an individual uses transit commuting, earns a low salary, or commutes by a car while keeping the cost of 1 km of around 2 CZK. Similarly, the annual growth rate of rental prices between 6 and 8 percent in all districts would result in comparable profitability of Kladno, Příbram, and Kolín to Prague.
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How long does it take until the positive effects of structural reforms do materialize?
Hanzal, Jan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
This thesis studies the topic of the effects of structural reforms over time. The research performed until now has suggested that the dynamic effects of reforms are clear, with neutral effects or costs in the short term, and important benefits in the medium to long term. In order to verify this seemingly settled view, this thesis tests the robustness of a well-established research paper on this topic by using an extended dataset and performing modifications to the measurement of several variables in the underlying model. Our results do not confirm the usual hypotheses, showing effects that are mostly not statistically or practically significant.
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