Údajné čínské měnové manipulace: případ vztahu Yuanu k USD v období 2005-2020

Belon, Sander

Currency manipulation has been an increasingly infamous studied topic espe- cially since the US accusation of Chinese currency manipulation in the sum- mer of 2019. Such accusations raise the question as to what extend the Chi- nese RMB exchange rate might be considered misaligned. This paper seeks to identify grounds of the accusation of currency manipulation by applying the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model (BEER) to indicate possi- ble misalignment. Annual data from 1980 to 2019 is employed for which this paper will emphasize on the period of 2005 to 2019. The utilised Johansen co-integration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) suggest a consistent undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate from 1980 to 2019. Such undervaluation ranges from -4.623% to -2.016% with a mean undervaluation from 2005 to 2019 of -2.464%. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Currency Manipulation, Vector Error Correction Model, China, Renminbi Title Alleged Chinese currency manipulation: the case of the Yuan in relation to the USD from 2005 to 2020. Author's e-mail sander@belon.be Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz rozmezí od -4,623% do -2,016% s průměrným podhodnocením od roku 2005 do roku 2019 ve výši -2,464%.

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