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Connectedness and spillover effects between forex and stock markets: Evidence from Scandinavia
Mkhitaryan, Arman ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...
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The US Financial Market Uncertainty and Its Spillover to European Stock Markets
Karolík, Richard ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
This thesis studies the spillover of the financial market uncertainty arising from the United States to three major European stock markets by analyzing the impulse response functions that were estimated using the local projections method. European stock markets are represented by their corresponding in- dices: the DAX 30 index for Germany, the CAC 40 for France, and the FTSE 100 for the United Kingdom. The results prove the existence of uncertainty spillover from the United States into Europe with the negative relationship be- tween the performance of a particular stock market and the uncertainty shock emerging from the US. Additional analysis examines the response to uncer- tainty shock for the two subsamples based on the Lehman Brothers collapse. The results show a possible interesting improvement in the ability to recover from uncertainty shock since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and can serve as a starting point for the further analyses in the field. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Uncertainty, financial market, stock market, United States, Europe Title The US Financial Market Uncertainty and Its Spillover to European Stock Markets
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Connectedness and spillover effects between forex and stock markets: Evidence from Scandinavia
Mkhitaryan, Arman ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...
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Working stress of Czech employees and its relation to job status and personal life
Veverková, Martina ; Vinopal, Jiří (advisor) ; Buriánek, Jiří (referee)
This paper explores issues of the work stress of Czech employees using the data from Quality of working life survey conducted in Sociological institute of Czech Academy of science in 2014. However work stress is generally seen as a serious problem, employers in the Czech Republic do not take it enough into account yet. The aim of this paper is to define groups of employees which are the most endangered by work stress, sources of stress (stressors) and explore the relationship between work stress and life satisfaction with special focus on employee status. As a theoretical background, we use the theory of spillover (transmission between life spheres), theories of high status stress and low status stress and balance models of work stress (namely Job demands-control model and Effort- reward imbalance model). Apart of work demands, overtime work, low social support and negative phenomenon as well as monotonous and unattractive job content and poor job security were identified as important stressors. As the most endangered group were identified those who have lower employee status, high level of stress and also lower satisfaction in all studied aspects of life. Situation of this group can be seen as a serious social problem. All identified stressors occur in this group together with other unfavourable...
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FDI and the spillover effect analysis: the case of Ethiopia
Turi, Abeba Nigussie ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
This thesis presents the spilling over effect resulting from the foreign direct investment with a focus on the manufacturing firms. It covers extensive econometric analysis based the Central Statistics Agency's (CSA) survey on the manufacturing firms and an Input-Output matrix done by the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). A pooled, Fixed and Random Effect estimation techniques are employed for estimating the log transferred production function augmented for the spillover proxies: Backward, Forward and Horizontal. Yet, as is stated in a lot of literatures like that of Javorcik (2004), the Cobb-Douglas production function suffers from the endogeneity problem and there is a need for a better estimation technique that can capture and solve this problem. As a result, I also used the Levinsohn-Petrin estimation technique, which used intermediate inputs as a proxy for unobservable shocks and the residuals from this estimate used as a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) of the firm. The TFP analysis from the LP estimation suggests that a one percentage point increase in the foreign presence in the downstream sectors is associated with the 1.1 percent rise in the total output of each supplying industries. Likewise, a one percentage point increase in the weighted share of output in the...
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Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News
Claeys, Peter ; Vašíček, Bořek
Although there is by now strong evidence that sovereign risk premia are driven by a common factor, little is known about the detailed linkages between sovereign bond markets. We employ the VAR method by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) to analyse the strength and direction of bilateral linkages between EU sovereign bond markets using daily data on sovereign bond yield spreads and a common factor. The forecast-error variance decomposition of this FAVAR indicates a lot of heterogeneity in the bilateral spillover sent and received between bond markets. Spillover is more important than domestic factors for all eurozone countries. The CE countries mostly affect each other. Only Denmark, Sweden and the UK are rather insulated from spillover. The spillover has increased substantially since 2007, despite starting from a high level. We use this framework to measure the impact of sovereign rating news and analyse the dynamic linkages between spreads and the ratings of the main credit rating agencies. We find a two-sided relation between rating news and sovereign risk premia. The spillover of rating news is very heterogeneous, and it is substantially stronger for downgrades at lower grades. The impact is often weaker domestically than on bond spreads of other sovereigns. JEL
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Mechanisms of Crisis Transmission and Spillovers in the Conditions of the European Union
Sokolova, Vesela ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
The last global financial crisis spread from the United States of America to the rest oof the world is a result of interacting factors. On the real estate market there emerged a bubble which after boosting caused an economic decrease in most of the world economies. Global imbalances also contributed to different reactions of the single states on the coming crisis. Due to the membership in the European Union the impacts were transmitted tto the surrrounding state of the Union. The negative impacts were sufficiently and fast suppressed, in other countries, like in Greece or Ireland the impact was worsening of the already bad economy condition. The thesis analyses the spillover and transfer of the crises to the EU through the trade channel and it's further spread among the EU. The goal of the thesis is to discover the main causes of the different immpact on the single economies in the EU and to analyse the mutual affecting considering sharing one currency.There is an outline for a possible measure for future cases of occurrence of similar crises considering especially the membership in the European Monetary Union.
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