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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage
Červinková, Monika ; Tuček, Milan (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...
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Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage
Červinková, Monika ; Tuček, Milan (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...
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Presidential pre-election polling: for the first time in the Czech Republic
Jechová, Klára ; Vinopal, Jiří (advisor) ; Buriánek, Jiří (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with examination of research activities of selected research organizations regarding the historically first direct elections of the president of the Czech Republic. This is done with the use of pre-election surveys realized in connection with presidential elections in the United States of America. The thesis ponders whether the phenomenon of direct elections will be positively accepted not only by Czech Citizen but also by local research organizations. The aim of the presented diploma thesis is the evaluation of Czech presidential surveys and their main methods through the comparison with models from the United States of America. The subsidiary goal is the investigation of prevailing traditions in the Czech Republic and the lack of resources which cause resistance against potential research development in the Czech Republic. At last but not least the thesis evaluates how presidential polls might influence the public opinion. This thesis is divided into five chapters. The first one investigates the election system and polls in the Czech Republic. Next chapter deals with the election system and polls in the United States of America. Chapter three focuses on the comparison of research approaches in the Czech Republic and the United States of America. The fourth chapter presents the...
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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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