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Inflation targeting in dollarized economies
Dokle, Eda ; Tůma, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
Inflation targeting has become an increasingly popular regime among emerging markets. Focusing on the experience of inflation targeting adoption in the countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States, this thesis highlights the main features of the inflation targeting framework. A clear economic condition bringing these countries together is considered the dollarization issue which gains importance when designing the inflation targeting framework. The empirical study on the impact of inflation targeting in inflation, inflation volatility, output, output volatility and deposit dollarization shows clear benefits of inflation targeting in terms of inflation and inflation volatility, which are not achieved at the expense of output growth. Also, dollarization does not harm the positive impact of inflation targeting on inflation.
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Inflation targeting and inflation perceptions: an empirical analysis
Klubíčková, Kateřina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Janský, Petr (referee)
In this thesis I examine the effect of introduction of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime on the difference between actual inflation and perceived inflation. Perceived inflation is used in the analysis in contrast with previous research, because inflation perceptions are extracted from consumer surveys conducted in individual European Union countries on the whole population sample and thereby enable me to examine the effect that the introduction of inflation targeting has across the whole population. A panel data set of 19 European Union members and 1 candidate, including 7 inflation targeters, is used in the analysis, with monthly information from the period beginning in January 1990 and ending in December 2012. Based on the analysis using fixed-effects model with specific dummy variables to capture the difference-in-differences element, I find that inflation targeters experience lower differences between actual and perceived inflation and that the difference between actual and perceived inflation decreases after the introduction of inflation targeting. Furthermore, various groups divided according to socio-economic characteristics of the consumer survey respondents tend to be affected in a different way by the introduction of inflation targeting, although to a limited extent. JEL...
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Inflation Target Setting in Emerging Markets
Orosz, Előd ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis focuses on emerging market economies which are using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. We present an analyses of development of inflation target in emerging market economies and detected its determinants by econometric methods. We used Random Effects Interval Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis contains two main parts. First part surveys theoretical background of inflation targeting focusing on emerging markets. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation targeting. We find out that inflation target in emerging countries is affected by more factors than central banks report. Moreover we found out that price level has an inverse effect on inflation target if we examine just emerging countries, than if we examine whole group of inflation targeting countries.
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Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine on its Way to Inflation Targeting Regime Implementation
Shepel, Nataliia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
This thesis investigates the role of the exchange rate and interest rate channels in the monetary transmission mechanism in Ukraine. The responses on the domes- tic as well as Russian economy shocks are estimated using the Vector Autoregression Model with block-exogeneity restriction. Monetary transmission did not prove to be strongly effective via neither of the estimated channels, although the exchange rate channel demonstrates the results which are more in line with the economic theory. In addition, the exchange rate channel shows the higher and more significant pass through. Further, we estimate the importance of the shocks of both home and for- eign economies for the domestic variables deviations using variance decomposition technique. The relevance of the Russian shocks in fluctuations of home variables is found out. The current estimation of the transmission mechanism is relevant due to the planned inflation targeting regime implementation in Ukraine which requires understanding of that processes in the economy. 1
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Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
Matějů, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Two Essays on Inflation Targeting Author: Mgr. Jakub Matějů Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: Roman Horváth, PhD. Abstract: The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The first essay examines how do monetary authorities set their inflation targets. Survey of central banks' communication regarding the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topic leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than central banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of central bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literature assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting central banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will have a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.
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Inflation targeting in emerging market economies
Mašková, Veronika ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The main objective of the thesis is to analyse the suitability of inflation targeting, a monetary policy regime which focuses on the achievement of the price stability, for the emerging market economies. The performance of inflation targeting countries is compared to the performance of non-inflation targeting countries which use other monetary policies such as the monetary aggregate target or exchange rate anchor. Regressions, using the difference-in-differences estimation approach, are run to assess the contribution of the inflation targeting framework to the development of economic variables such as the CPI, GDP, national interest rate etc. Economic outcomes of the financial crisis period (2007- 2010) are crucial part of the thesis. The convenience of the inflation targeting framework for the emerging market economies is derived. This holds also for the severe situations such as the crisis since it lowers the volatility of the main variables of the interest. Keywords: inflation targeting, monetary economics, monetary policy, emerging market economies, difference in differences estimation, financial crisis
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Tools of monetary policy of the Czech National Bank
Zůna, Zdeněk ; Borkovec, Aleš (advisor) ; Bažantová, Ilona (referee)
Tools of monetary policy of the Czech national bank - summary Zdeněk Zůna The purpose of my thesis is to analyze main factors affecting economic development of Czech Republic and describe in detail the instruments of monetary policy including reasons and consequences of their use. Author chose chronological interpretation with emphasis on inclusion in historical context. Introductory chapter defines the concept of monetary policy and outlines its types and goals. Along with the second and the third chapter, it creates necessary theoretical basis for the practical part. It explains why monetary policy is given to the hands of central banks as independent institutions, and why is price stability in most countries the only main objective of monetary policy. We also get a basic idea of what monetary expansions and monetary restrictions are and what are their consequences. Second chapter deals with process of monetary policy. It describes strengths and weaknesses of different strategies and shows the chain of economic links, through which the instruments used affect final goals. In addition, it presents some problems of monetary policy and discusses the role of time lags. Third chapter looks at the tools of monetary policy in general. Beside basic characteristics, it describes, how they influence monetary base,...
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Investment in Transmission Mechanism of Inflation Targeting
Kučera, Lukáš ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee) ; Mach, Miloš (referee)
The dissertation thesis is devoted to the topic of investment with emphasis on their position within the transmission mechanism of inflation targeting. It discusses starting-points of inflation targeting regime, individual transmission channels of monetary policy including their connections, and routes through which the central bank may influence the investment. There are analyzed selected investment theories and other theoretical models that are associated with the investment. Factors, whose changes may induce changes in investment, are derived using the intersection of these two analyzed aspects. They are variables, which flow from a theoretical analysis of transmission channels, as well as variables, that are not directly accented within these channels, but they can be affected by the central bank. Even factors, that are not within the competence of the central bank, are included among the variables. Using available data, sources of investment variability are verified on data for the Czech Republic. Basic empirical analysis of time series and correlation analysis are performed and the vector error correction model is compiled.
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Velocity of money and its relevance for monetary policy
Boháčik, Ján ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
The thesis discusses some issues on the topic of money velocity. Its goal is to summarise theroretical contributions in this area, which are followed by a practical application through the monetary analysis of the Slovak Republic from 1993 to 2000. The theoretical part involves the first approaches to money velocity, explanation of the quantity theory of money and monetarism and their critique. It also describes the monerary transmission mechanism. The practical application part evaluates the impact of the stability of money velocity on the decision of the National Bank of Slovakia to abandon monetary targeting. It also focuses on the other variables that influenced monetary policy execution. The last chapter is devoted to the importance of money velocity if the central bank uses inflation targeting as its policy.
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Foreign-exchange interventions as an unconventional tool of monetary policy of the CNB: the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Israel experience comparison
Poláková, Aneta ; Vejmělek, Jan (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with the use of foreign-exchange interventions as an unconventional tool of monetary policy in inflation targeting regime. It is primary focused on monetary policy of the Czech National Bank and foreign-exchange interventions that have been executed since November 2013. Further, it is devoted to interventions executed by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Israel. The main aim is to analyse the experience of previously mentioned central banks with foreign-exchange interventions, to describe main reasons and goals, and especially impacts of interventions on economies of related countries while focusing on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The last part provides the evaluation of referred intervention regimes and their comparison.
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