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Creation of New Prediction Units in Data Mining System on NetBeans Platform
Havlíček, David ; Bartík, Vladimír (referee) ; Lukáš, Roman (advisor)
The issue of this master's thesis is a creation of new prediction unit for existing system of knowledge discovery in database. The first part of project deal with general problems of knowledge discovery in database and predictive analysis. The second part of the project deal with system developed on FIT, for which is module implemented, used technologies, concept and implementation of mining module for this system. The solution is implemented in Java language and is a built on the NetBeans platform.
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Behavioral finance: An analysis of the impact of the moon cycle on the stock market
Horniaková, Veronika ; Havlíček, David (advisor) ; Cibulka, Jakub (referee)
Work deals with the current theme of behavioral finance. The work is gradually resolving the question of development of this theory, which continues into authors description of their approaches to the topic. Attention is also paid to the psychological and calendar effects influencing the investors in the stock markets, which impact on the stock markets themselves. Analytical part solves the problem of the impact of moon phases on the stock market. The aim of this work is to determine whether the monthly cycle impact on investors' decisions. Three stock indices were examined for the period of three years. Analysis examines two phases, full moon and new moon. The analysis concluded the statistically significant effect of a new phase, for two of the three stock indices monitored.
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The analysis of selected behavioral biases in the context of the stock market
Havlíček, David ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Daňhel, Jaroslav (referee) ; Budinský, Petr (referee)
The thesis focuses on the partial synthesis of investment strategies based on the theory of efficient markets and behavioral finance. Model of investment behavior consists of three parts - the Markowitz model of portfolio approach , De Bondt - Thaler model of re-building portfolio by capital gains in past and a model of short-term behavioral biases. Parameters of behavioral biases are determined arbitrarily and calibrated using correlation analysis for stock index DJIA and the particular stock title. The assembled model of short-term behavioral biases can explain only about 1 percent of changes in market prices of assets and regression analysis doesn't confirmed their statistical significance. Better results were found in a particular stock title than the stock index. The model of investment behavior has shown that without taking into account transaction costs Markowitz model was the most successful, but taking into account the costs De Bondt - Thaler model was more successful. The model of behavioral biases couldn't even overcome market benchmark, but in terms of risk the model was the least risky. The overall model of investment behavior also suggested the possibility of prediction of financial crisis, which could also be a space for further research in this area. The synthesis would also be appropriate to explore also by other methods such as simulation or real survey.
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Use of the triage method in emergency events and its importance among selected bodies of the integrated rescue system
HAVLÍČEK, David
Subject matter of the thesis is Use of the triage method in emergency events and its importance among selected bodies of the integrated rescue system. It contains both teoretical and research parts. Theoretical part includes definition of emergency events and definition of mass disaster. It also mentions organizations, which help to deal with these events. But the main point of the thesis is formed by triage issues in terms of its history, elementary distribution and putting the most frequently used methods. An important chapter is a description of the documentation associated with issues, especially triage and identification cards from the perspective of emergency medical services and fire protection units. The last point of the theoretical part is the mention of traumatology planning. The research part sets out three hypotheses, which focus on finding a theoretical readiness among selected bodies of the integrated rescue system. The first presupposition was that the knowledge of the staff of medical rescue services is better than knowledge of the members of other selected bodies. The remaining hypotheses put the same requirements, but in terms of lenght of employment of selected workers in integrated rescue system. Better knowledge is expected for the longer-acting staff and for staff, who have some experience with triage issues. Chapter also describes the statistical method which enabled the confirmation or refutation of the hypotheses - pair t-test. The methodology describes the method of data collection by using questionnaire, describes used statistical methods, provides basic empirical parameters and their comparison. The result of this comparison was expressed in percentage. The result of data processing from secondary sources was to determining that examined issue in the Czech Republic is very fragmented, in terms of used methods and documentation. Data needed to confirm hypotheses was collected from the staff of emergency medical services, fire rescue units and volunteer firefighters. Only a single hypothesis was confirmed. Theoretical knowledge of the staff of emergency medical services is not better than the knowledge of the other selected bodies. It is very similar to knowledge of staff of fire rescue units. However members of volunteer firefighters have the worst triage knowledge. Another finding was that lenght of employment of workers of ambulance components doesn´t affects the quality of their theoretical preparedness. Empirical research identified knowledges approximately the same. On the contrary, previous experience affects the degree of this knowledge. This assertion is based on the fact that workers from examined bodies, who had to solve real or training emergency events, by triage methods, have better degree of theoretical knowledge. The objective of the thesis was, besides process determination of the theoretical knowledge and hypotheses also identification of weaknesses in triage knowledge of workers from selected bodies and determination methods for their correction. Therefore, based on the results, was created a graphic manual procedure for triage in emergency events. It was created as a learning tool to deepen the knowledge or as a reminder tool of triage procedure for training or real situations. It is designed for all workers, especially for members of volunteer fire units, or other people, who are interested in this issue. Conclusion of the thesis includes suggestion for correction of some of the weaknesses identified in the theoretical readiness of employees or members of integrated rescue system, especially units of volunteer firefighters. This objective can be achieved by better access to educational materials, exchange of expertise focused on this issue and the possibility of greater participation of mass casualties training with other bodies of integrated rescue system.
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A Performance Comparison of mutual funds and ETFs available in Czech Republic from the CZK investor's point of view
Kůna, Jakub ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
This diploma thesis "A Performance Comparison of in Czech Republic available mutual funds and ETFs from the view of CZK investor" elaborates on collective investing in Czech Republic; focusing on mutual funds and their exchange traded alternatives in ETFs. In the thesis, a history of Czech collective investments' development is briefly mentioned and of ETFs' beginnings in the US, also a legislative framework for the mutual funds in CZ is shortly discussed; furthermore, different approaches to fund classification based on various criteria are provided. An impact of fund fees and expenses is also analysed. A Current situation on the capital market of funds and ETFs and its trends are showed in many graphs and tables. In the second part of the thesis, author introduces not only the basic ones but also the more sophisticated methods of portfolio's or fund's performance measurements, including yields, risks, risk-adjusted yields etc... The third and last chapter aims at application of the previously mentioned methods on a selection of 20 funds and ETFs; therefore building a financial model enabling that. The analysis is viewed as from the CZK investor, thus all calculations are made in CZK.
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Shortcomings in Financial Risk-modeling as a Factor in Financial Crisis
Kovár, Peter ; Havlíček, David (advisor) ; Baran, Jaroslav (referee)
In this bachelor's thesis we explore research on the importance of inclusion the factor of liquidity into risk-measuring and asset-pricing models. We also illustrate the price impact of liquidity shocks on major stock-exchange indices during the financial crisis of 2008. We look at the changes addressing the issue of liquidity in currently proposed Basel III regulation and identify some of the potential pitfalls therein. Presenting a case study, we evaluate whether these provisions would have been sufficient to stave off the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, Inc. We also investigate the role of complexity behind newly designed financial derivatives products and the risk associated from badly managed securitization process.
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Use of Agent-Based Models in Investigation of Behavioral Finance Phenomena
Motloch, Pavel ; Havlíček, David (advisor) ; Matejašák, Milan (referee)
This Bachelor thesis joins two areas which currently attracted increased attention --- Behavioral Finance theory and agent based models. Goal of this work was to overcome deficiencies of known agent based models and to create a model focusing on decision-making of individual agents, optimally using findings of Behavioral finance. We managed to find such a model and proved that it is capable of reproducing basic statistical properties of market prices, which is a basic test of the quality of the model. Its further use in investigation of Behavioral phenomena is currently impossible, because we are not able to sufficiently constraint the space of parameters. At the end of the thesis we discuss how it would be possible to overcome this obstacle.
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Harmonic Pattern Share Analysis
Kubát, Jan ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
The aim of this work is to test harmonic chart patterns on europen and american stock markets. The logic of classical chart patterns is based on behavioral psychology. In the year 1997, Larry Pesavento introduced harmonic chart patterns in his book "Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition" [1]. Harmonic chart patterns contain ratios based on fibonacci principle. Fibonacci principle is not based in behavioral psychology, it is based in natural law. Harmonic patterns are the first chart patterns, that are not based in behavioral psychology. The main goal of this work is to answer two questions: Is strategy based on harmonic chart patterns more profitable that pasive portfolio strategy? Are the harmonic chart patterns more profitable than the classical chart patterns?
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Analysis of the effect of credit rating
Svatková, Eliška ; Havlíček, David (advisor) ; Stádník, Bohumil (referee)
This bachelor work doesn't deal with only theoretical explanation of terms, but also issues with credit rating agencies inherently linked. The first five chapters are dedicated to theoretical concepts of history and credit rating agencies. The sixth chapter explains some of the factors that affected increasing the rating mark of the ČR. The conclusion can be found regression analysis investigating the effect of a credit rating to the bond risk premium of the czehc government bond. The last chapter is dedicated to a questionnaire survey which aimed to find out how it is currently viewed by the public and bankers who work in banks in the ČR.
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