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	Dissent voting behavior of central bankers: what do we really know? Horváth, R. ; Rusnák, Marek ; Šmídková, K. ; Zápal, J. Detailed record
	Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech republic Franta, Michal ; Horváth, Roman ; Rusnák, Marek Writers investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the 1996–2010 period by employing a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. They evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to exchange rate or interest rate shocks changes over time, with a focus on the period of the recent financial crisis. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Are Bayesian fan charts useful for central banks?: uncertainty, forecasting, and financial stability stress tests Franta, Michal ; Baruník, Jozef ; Horváth, Roman ; Šmídková, Kateřina This paper shows how fan charts generated from Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models can be useful for assessing 1) the forecasting accuracy of central banks’ prediction models and 2) the credibility of stress tests carried out to evaluate financial stability. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	How are inflation targets set? Horváth, Roman ; Matějů, Jakub This paper contributes to a better understanding of how inflation targets are set. First, writers gather evidence on how inflation targets are set from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire of our own design. Second, writers estimate the determinants of the level of the inflation target in 19 inflation-targeting countries using unbalanced panel interval regressions to deal with the issue that targets are typically set as a range rather than as a point. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for moentary policy? Baxa, Jaromír ; Horváth, Roman ; Vašíček, Bořek Writers examine whether and how selected central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. They employ a new monetary-policy rule estimation methodology which allows for time-varying response coefficients and corrects for endogeneity. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	How to solve the price puzzle?: a meta-analysis Rusnák, Marek ; Havránek, Tomáš ; Horváth, Roman Writers collect about 1,000 point estimates of impulse responses from 70 articles using vector autoregressive models and present a simple method of research synthesis for graphical results. Their results suggest that the reported impulse responses depend systematically. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Reform Redux: measurement, determinants and reversals Campos, Nauro F. ; Horváth, Roman In this paper writers put forward improved measures of economic liberalization across countries over time. They show that structural reforms, carefully measured, follow richer dynamics (than those from existing indexes) which are very closely linked to the theoretical work. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Central banks' voting records and future policy Horváth, Roman ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Zápal, Jan Writers assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy. First, they specify a theoretical model of central bank board decisionmaking and simulate the voting outcomes. Three different versions of model are estimated with simulated data: 1) democratic, 2) consensual and 3) opportunistic. Next, the model predictions are tested on real data on six countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States). Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Do financial variables help predict macroeconomic environment?: the case of the Czech republic Havránek, Tomáš ; Horváth, Roman ; Matějů, Jakub In this paper, writers 1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and 2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record
	Does money help predict inflation?: an empirical assessment for central Europe Horváth, Roman ; Komárek, Luboš ; Rozsypal, Filip This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Writers construct monetary indicators similar to those the ECB regularly uses for monetary analysis. Fulltext: PDF Detailed record

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