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Essays on Research Reproducibility in Economics
Buliskeria, Nino ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Furukawa, Chishio (referee) ; Reed, William Robert (referee) ; Brodeur, Abel (referee)
Tato disertační práce přispívá k pokračující debatě o důvěryhodnosti empiric- kého výzkumu v ekonomii, která začala kritikou selektivních postupů při výběru modelů Edwardem Leamerem na počátku 80. let. Tato práce se proto prostřednic- tvím série podrobných analýz zabývá klíčovými problémy meta-výzkumu, repliko- vatelností a rozšíření publikačních zkreslení a p-hackingu v akademickém výzkumu. První studie se vrací k vlivné analýze Burgesse a Pandeho o dopadu státem iniciovaného rozšiřování bankovních poboček do chudých oblastí Indie na míru chu- doby. Odhaluji, že údajný významný efekt nových poboček se výrazně sníží, pokud vezmeme v úvahu komplexnější analýzu politických změn v daném období. Toto zjištění podtrhuje nutnost zohlednění vlivů vnější politiky, aby byla zajištěna ro- bustnost empirických výsledků. Druhá část analyzuje indexy nejistoty hospodář- ské politiky (EPU) z Německa, Francie, Itálie, Španělska a Spojeného království a zjišťuje, že dlouhodobé trendy v těchto indexech pramení spíše z metodologických rozhodnutí při tvorbě indexu než ze skutečné ekonomické nejistotě. Použitím al- ternativních normalizačních technik tato studie ukazuje, jak takové metodologické nuance mohou vést k výrazně odlišným interpretacím ekonomických jevů, jako je Brexit nebo pandemie COVID-19. Poslední část...
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Expansionary Fiscal Consolidation Revisited: Evidence from the Over-Indebted Europe
Máca, Jaroslav ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis studies macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on a sample of EU-28 countries for a period from 2004 to 2019 sticking primarily to the state-of-the-art narrative approach. For this purpose, we collect additional 2037 new fiscal measures to update publicly available dataset used in some previous papers. This is of interest as we demonstrate that cyclically adjusted primary balance in case of conventional approach can disregard a number of relevant findings. We do find moderate indications that fiscal consolidation can turn out to be expansionary in terms of enhancing GDP growth. In line with the existing literature, private investment is shown to react more strongly than private consumption. Nevertheless, success in terms of reducing public debt-to-GDP ratio is limited due to the low persistence of austerity measures. However, currency appreciation in countries with floating exchange rate regime can inhibit full materialization of growth-enhancing potential of fiscal consolidation. In the end, central bank is shown to cut interest rates to offset recessionary pressures. Further research shall revisit the role of composition. In fact, we reveal that tax-based austerity measures are typically chosen as "adjustment of the last resort" and successfully reverse course of history, while...
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Role of Fiscal Policy in the Recent Inflation Shock in the Czech Republic
Řepa, David ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Pavlova, Alena (referee)
Following a massive fiscal expansion worldwide during the COVID-19 pan- demic, global inflation suddenly started to upsurge at a long-unseen pace. In- spired by the case of the Czech Republic, a country that experienced one of the sharpest hikes in the price level in the European Union between 2021 and 2023 and whose public finances have been considerably disrupted by expansive fiscal policy, the thesis aims to reveal to which extent both phenomena are related. Using panel data spanning from 1996 to 2022, the Fixed Effects and Common Correlated Effects estimators are applied to several dynamic models in which four alternative measures of fiscal stance are considered and that allow for heterogeneity in the magnitude of the coefficients as well as the presence of common effects in some cases. However, no robust evidence that the relation- ship would be economically relevant in the standard times has been revealed. Consequently, the analysis hence does not reveal a clear fiscal source of the recent inflation shock. Different drivers are likely to have affected it. Addition- ally, evidence of generally strong inflation persistence and a role of openness to international trade are observed. JEL Classification E31, E37, E62, E65, H62, H63 Keywords inflation, fiscal policy, Czech Republic, COVID- 19,...
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Social Enterprise-Centered Varieties of Capitalism: How does the variant of capitalism impact the social enterprise sector?
Lopinski, Justin James ; Schwarz, Jiří (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Sociální podniky představují způsob, jak využít již existující instituce a trhy k řešení sociálních potřeb, které nejsou dostatečně pokryty soukromým sektorem nebo státem. Sociální problémy, které se snaží řešit, jejich institucionální rámec a trhy na kterých operují jsou jedinečné v rámci svého národního nebo dokonce regionálního kontextu. To vytváří problémy s rozšiřováním a implementací úspěšných modelů do nových komunit. Tato diplomová práce definuje tyto institucionální kontexty pomocí teoretického rámce odvozeného z literatury o Modelech kapitalismu na základě srovnání ukazatelů ekonomické koordinace a vládní intervence v různých zemích. Pomocí regresních technik nejmenších čtverců na průřezovém souboru dat ze 49 zemí byly posuzovány následující tři výzkumné otázky. Zaprvé, má model kapitalismu vliv na sektor sociálních podniků? Za druhé, mají cílené snahy zaměřené na podporu podnikání vedlejší účinky, které prospívají sociálnímu podnikání? Za třetí, poskytují společnosti ve kterých převládají postmaterialistické hodnoty příznivější prostředí pro rozvoj sociálních podniků? Výsledky této analýzy ukazují, že zatímco komerční podnikatelská aktivita je pozitivně ovlivněna ekonomickou koordinací a negativně ovlivněna vládní intervencí, neexistuje důkaz, že by podobný vztah existoval i v případě...
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Reflection of the Czechoslovak Monetary Policy in the thoughts and writings of German-speaking Economist that worked at the Charles-Ferdinand University during 1918 - 1938
Zatřepálková, Hana ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Doležalová, Antonie (referee)
The thesis focuses on German-speaking economists, specifically Oskar Engländer, Alfred Amonn, and Hugo Müller, who taught economically oriented subjects at the German University in Prague during the interwar period. Through a combination of historical research and textual analysis of their works, the thesis explores the extent to which these economists expressed interest in the monetary policy of Czechoslovakia and its notable figures, Alois Rašín and Karel Engliš. Additionally, it investigates the predominant themes in their works during this period and provides insights into the potential applications of computer-based textual analysis in the field of the history of economic thought.
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Spillovers of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from GVAR model
Poloček, Adam ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This thesis aims to supplement extensive literature on uncertainty impact in the real world and much scarcer literature on its spillover properties. Recently, numerous events induced high economic policy uncertainty such as the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Brexit referendum, tariff dis- putes, etc. have highlighted how relevant are the spillover properties. To investigate them across a global panel of countries, we propose a GVAR model that incorporates the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as a measure of uncertainty. We model effect of an uncertainty shock to the US economy on quarterly and monthly data. Our model reveals two key findings. First, uncertainty spillover occurs immediately without lags and causes spikes in local uncertainty. Secondly, it negatively impacts output, interest rates, inflation and equity prices, but share of impact taken by each variable varies country by country. This is supportive of "real options" hypothesis and indicates, that majority of impact occurs via investment. Overall, this paper sheds new light on the intricate relationship between uncertainty and economic conditions, emphasizing the need for policymakers to carefully consider the impact of policy uncertainty on both domestic and international economic conditions
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Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Difference?
Trubelík, Ivan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Euro adoption constitutes a major step in the economic integration within the European Union. The aim of this work is to quantify the effects it would have on the Czech Republic should it join the Euro Area at various dates in the recent past. Employing a Global VAR model to make unconditional and conditional counterfactuals of the 29 modeled economies, the probabilities of a higher real output and of lower prices are estimated. The results suggest that, from the viewpoint of the Czech Republic, entering the Eurozone during the financial crisis of 2009 would deteriorate both the recession as well as the deflation. On the other hand, the most favorable entry date was estimated to be the beginning of 2020 with very high probabilities of a larger real output after a few initial periods of a slower growth. The Euro adoption thus appears to be an economic decision with benefits materializing in the longer term rather than an opportunity for an immediate stimulus. JEL Classification C32, C53, C54, C55, E52, F45 Keywords Euro Adoption, Global VAR, Probabilistic Fore- casting Title Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Differ- ence?
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Macroeconomic consequences of Covid-19 and the role of stabilisation policies
Karhánek, Tomáš ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis applies panel data analyses supported by vast stream of empirical literature with aim to capture and quantify effects of the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on the macroeconomic indicators during COVID-19 pandemic, while also comparing effects of UMP and CMP monetary regimes. The results show that both the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies had positive and statistically significant impact on the real GDP growth. On the other hand, the effect of the stabilization policies did not have significant effect on the inflation during 2020-2021. The thesis also presents a small subsample of forecasting utilizing properties of VECM and comparing recovery paths of 3 European countries with different monetary regimes. We also conclude that there is no significant difference between monetary regimes utilizing UMP or CMP in terms of effectivity of the GDP growth stimulus and recovery paths of the macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, we have concluded that the GDP sectoral composition played an important role in the economic impact on the country as countries with larger share of services suffered larger decrease of the real GDP and countries with large industrial sector faced higher inflation due to supply chain disturbtion. JEL Classification E52, E31, E470, H51, H68, H61...
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Determinants of green growth
Trouble, Elisa ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Ščasný, Milan (referee)
This thesis evaluates the evidence of decoupling of emissions and economic growth. More specifically, it draws upon previous literature and estimates both the short run and long run elasticities of emissions using an altering method. Most recent data for production and consumption based CO2 emissions on the world's top 23 emitters is used. The baseline model is extended to measure decoupling at the global level by using panel data analysis and by aggregating emissions and growth variables to create a world level time series. Further, the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is tested at the individual country and global levels. Results provide evidence of absolute decoupling in richer nations and relative decoupling in less developed countries. At the global level evidence of decoupling is mitigated. Comparison between consumption and production based elasticity estimates also provides evidence in favor of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Finally, sensitivity checks are conducted by estimating elasticities on a subsample and robustness checks suggest evidence is weak and not robust to the estimation method. Keywords:: Emissions-output decoupling, HP filter, OLS, absolute decoupling, Environmental Kuznets Curve, emissions-output elasticity Title: Emissions-output decoupling:...
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