Vliv fiskální politiky na nedávný inflační šok v České republice

Řepa, David

Following a massive fiscal expansion worldwide during the COVID-19 pan- demic, global inflation suddenly started to upsurge at a long-unseen pace. In- spired by the case of the Czech Republic, a country that experienced one of the sharpest hikes in the price level in the European Union between 2021 and 2023 and whose public finances have been considerably disrupted by expansive fiscal policy, the thesis aims to reveal to which extent both phenomena are related. Using panel data spanning from 1996 to 2022, the Fixed Effects and Common Correlated Effects estimators are applied to several dynamic models in which four alternative measures of fiscal stance are considered and that allow for heterogeneity in the magnitude of the coefficients as well as the presence of common effects in some cases. However, no robust evidence that the relation- ship would be economically relevant in the standard times has been revealed. Consequently, the analysis hence does not reveal a clear fiscal source of the recent inflation shock. Different drivers are likely to have affected it. Addition- ally, evidence of generally strong inflation persistence and a role of openness to international trade are observed. JEL Classification E31, E37, E62, E65, H62, H63 Keywords inflation, fiscal policy, Czech Republic, COVID- 19,...

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