Original title: Unpacking the countercyclicality of post-secondary enrollment in the United States
Authors: Bičáková, Alena ; Cortes, G. M. ; Foley, K. ; Mazza, J. ; McHenry, P.
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2025
Language: eng
Series: CERGE-EI Working Paper Series, volume: 795
Abstract: Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement for 1977-2023, we explore two important, yet understudied facets of the pattern of countercyclical post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. First, we show that economic downturns are associated with higher enrollment probabilities at both 2- and 4-year colleges among young men, but only at 2-year institutions among young women. Second, we show that the overall increase in enrollment propensities during downturns is primarily driven by persistence (i.e., changes in enrollment among individuals with prior PSE participation), rather than matriculation (i.e., new enrollments). However, higher unemployment rates increase matriculation probabilities at 2-year colleges among 18- year-old men and women, and at 4-year colleges among individuals in their early 20s. Our findings improve our understanding of the dimensions along which aggregate economic fluctuations induce changes in human capital acquisition.
Keywords: 2- and 4-year institutions; business cycles; college enrollment

Institution: Economics Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at external website.
External URL: https://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp795.pdf
Original record: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0366794

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-679988


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