Measuring and Formalising the Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan

Turaev, Bekhzod

The thesis focuses on the estimation of the size of the shadow economy with the use of Multiple Indicators and Multiple causes (MIMIC) approach in the example of Uzbekistan. Along with the MIMIC approach, different direct and indirect methods of measuring the informal economy have been introduced shortly. A sample of observations for MIMIC modelling have been based on post-soviet states (excluding Estonia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) within the time frame from 2002 to 2019. Tax burden, Government Size, Control of Corruption Index, Rural population and Unemployment and Cash in Circulation (M0/M1) and Labor Participation rate are selected as cause and indicator variables of the model, respectively. There are also reviews on the relationship between the shadow economy and various factors such as tax burden, corruption, quality of government regulations, cash in circulation (M0/M1), size of government, size of agriculture, public goods and services, public infrastructure and so on. In addition, discussions about the formalization and effects of the formalization of the shadow economy have been raised in regards with the tax and administrative system, business environment, agricultural and rural development, and macroeconomic indicators in Uzbekistan.

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