Cenová elasticita elektřiny přehodnocena: Metaanalýza

Šikl, Vojtěch

Despite a plethora of empirical research on electricity demand, results regard- ing estimated price elasticities persist to be inconclusive. Our meta-analysis synthesizes 4521 estimates from 413 studies to explore the presence of publi- cation and endogeneity bias. We code for over 100 variables to quantify the response of electricity consumers to price shifts. The price elasticity of electric- ity is inelastic and the short-run elasticity sample average of -0.231 is double (in magnitude) the short-run elasticity corrected for publication bias, which is -0.116. The long-run elasticity adjusted for publication bias is -0.303. We conclude that experimental studies, while also su ering from publication bias, report unbiased elasticities of -0.07. Our thesis also confirms a significant occur- rence of p-hacking across multiple specifications. By employing Bayesian model averaging, we explore the heterogeneity among reported elasticities, finding that factors such as decreasing tari s, demographics and fuel usage controls, daylight hours and number of citations critically influence the variability in findings. The average and marginal price of electricity and time of use tari s play a negligible role in explaining the di erences in estimated elasticities. JEL Classification D01, Q40, Q49, C11 Keywords...

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