Název: Heat waves over Central Europe in ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model: evaluation and future projections
Autoři: Lhotka, Ondřej ; Farda, A. ; Kyselý, Jan
Typ dokumentu: Příspěvky z konference
Konference/Akce: Global Change: A Complex Challenge /4th/, Brno (CZ), 2015-03-23 / 2015-03-24
Rok: 2015
Jazyk: eng
Abstrakt: We evaluated a simulation of Central European heat waves and analysed possible changes of their characteristics in the future climate using the ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model with 25km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral boundary conditions were provided by the ARPEGE global climate model, using historical forcing and the SRES A1B scenario. Observed data were taken from the E-OBS gridded data set. Heat waves were evaluated over 1970−1999 and changes in their characteristics were assessed for 2020−2049. Their definition is based on exceedance of the 90th percentile of summer daily maximum temperature calculated separately for modelled and observed data. ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulates characteristics for the recent climate quite well, especially the overall severity of heat waves. In contrast, temperature amplitude was considerably overestimated. This model projects an increase in overall heat wave severity by a factor of 2 to 3 in the future climate, primarily driven by an increasing number of events. The study shows that ALADIN-Climate/CZ is generally capable of simulating Central European heat waves, which gives more credibility to model projections of future heat waves.
Klíčová slova: ALADIN-Climate/CZ; heat waves; regional climate models
Číslo projektu: 7AMB15AR001 (CEP)
Poskytovatel projektu: GA MŠk
Zdrojový dokument: Global Change: A Complex Challenge : Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-80-87902-10-3

Instituce: Ústav fyziky atmosféry AV ČR (web)
Informace o dostupnosti dokumentu: Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Externí umístění souboru: http://envimet.czechglobe.cz/files/present/akce/SbornikKonference.pdf
Původní záznam: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0248665

Trvalý odkaz NUŠL: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-189258


Záznam je zařazen do těchto sbírek:
Věda a výzkum > AV ČR > Ústav fyziky atmosféry
Konferenční materiály > Příspěvky z konference