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Original title:
Heat waves over Central Europe in ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model: evaluation and future projections
Authors: Lhotka, Ondřej ; Farda, A. ; Kyselý, Jan
Document type: Papers
Conference/Event: Global Change: A Complex Challenge /4th/, Brno (CZ), 2015-03-23 / 2015-03-24
Year: 2015
Language: eng
Abstract: We evaluated a simulation of Central European heat waves and analysed possible changes of their characteristics in the future climate using the ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model with 25km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral boundary conditions were provided by the ARPEGE global climate model, using historical forcing and the SRES A1B scenario. Observed data were taken from the E-OBS gridded data set. Heat waves were evaluated over 1970−1999 and changes in their characteristics were assessed for 2020−2049. Their definition is based on exceedance of the 90th percentile of summer daily maximum temperature calculated separately for modelled and observed data. ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulates characteristics for the recent climate quite well, especially the overall severity of heat waves. In contrast, temperature amplitude was considerably overestimated. This model projects an increase in overall heat wave severity by a factor of 2 to 3 in the future climate, primarily driven by an increasing number of events. The study shows that ALADIN-Climate/CZ is generally capable of simulating Central European heat waves, which gives more credibility to model projections of future heat waves.
Keywords: ALADIN-Climate/CZ; heat waves; regional climate models
Project no.: 7AMB15AR001 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MŠk
Host item entry: Global Change: A Complex Challenge : Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-80-87902-10-3
Institution: Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at external website.
External URL: http://envimet.czechglobe.cz/files/present/akce/SbornikKonference.pdf
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0248665
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-189258
The record appears in these collections:
Research > Institutes ASCR > Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Conference materials > Papers
Authors: Lhotka, Ondřej ; Farda, A. ; Kyselý, Jan
Document type: Papers
Conference/Event: Global Change: A Complex Challenge /4th/, Brno (CZ), 2015-03-23 / 2015-03-24
Year: 2015
Language: eng
Abstract: We evaluated a simulation of Central European heat waves and analysed possible changes of their characteristics in the future climate using the ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model with 25km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral boundary conditions were provided by the ARPEGE global climate model, using historical forcing and the SRES A1B scenario. Observed data were taken from the E-OBS gridded data set. Heat waves were evaluated over 1970−1999 and changes in their characteristics were assessed for 2020−2049. Their definition is based on exceedance of the 90th percentile of summer daily maximum temperature calculated separately for modelled and observed data. ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulates characteristics for the recent climate quite well, especially the overall severity of heat waves. In contrast, temperature amplitude was considerably overestimated. This model projects an increase in overall heat wave severity by a factor of 2 to 3 in the future climate, primarily driven by an increasing number of events. The study shows that ALADIN-Climate/CZ is generally capable of simulating Central European heat waves, which gives more credibility to model projections of future heat waves.
Keywords: ALADIN-Climate/CZ; heat waves; regional climate models
Project no.: 7AMB15AR001 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MŠk
Host item entry: Global Change: A Complex Challenge : Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-80-87902-10-3
Institution: Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at external website.
External URL: http://envimet.czechglobe.cz/files/present/akce/SbornikKonference.pdf
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0248665
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-189258
The record appears in these collections:
Research > Institutes ASCR > Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Conference materials > Papers
Record created 2015-09-02, last modified 2022-09-29