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Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics
Peštová, Barbora ; Hušková, Marie (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee) ; Jarušková, Daniela (referee)
Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics Barbora Peštová Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Czech Republic Abstract of the doctoral thesis We deal with sequences of observations that are naturally ordered in time and assume various underlying stochastic models. These models are parametric and some of the parameters are possibly subject to change at some unknown time point. The main goal of this thesis is to test whether such an unknown change has occurred or not. The core of the change point methods presented here is in ratio type statistics based on maxima of cumulative sums. Firstly, an overview of thesis' starting points is given. Then we focus on methods for detecting a gradual change in mean. Consequently, procedures for detection of an abrupt change in mean are generalized by considering a score function. We explore the possibility of applying the bootstrap methods for obtaining critical values, while disturbances of the change point model are considered as weakly dependent. Procedures for detection of changes in parameters of linear regression models are shown as well and a permutation version of the test is derived. Then, a related problem of testing a change in autoregression parameter is studied....
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Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics
Peštová, Barbora
Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics Barbora Peštová Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Czech Republic Abstract of the doctoral thesis We deal with sequences of observations that are naturally ordered in time and assume various underlying stochastic models. These models are parametric and some of the parameters are possibly subject to change at some unknown time point. The main goal of this thesis is to test whether such an unknown change has occurred or not. The core of the change point methods presented here is in ratio type statistics based on maxima of cumulative sums. Firstly, an overview of thesis' starting points is given. Then we focus on methods for detecting a gradual change in mean. Consequently, procedures for detection of an abrupt change in mean are generalized by considering a score function. We explore the possibility of applying the bootstrap methods for obtaining critical values, while disturbances of the change point model are considered as weakly dependent. Procedures for detection of changes in parameters of linear regression models are shown as well and a permutation version of the test is derived. Then, a related problem of testing a change in autoregression parameter is studied....
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Robust Metalearning: Comparing Robust Regression Using A Robust Prediction Error
Peštová, Barbora ; Kalina, Jan
The aim of this paper is to construct a classification rule for predicting the best regression estimator for a new data set based on a database of 20 training data sets. Various estimators considered here include some popular methods of robust statistics. The methodology used for constructing the classification rule can be described as metalearning. Nevertheless, standard approaches of metalearning should be robustified if working with data sets contaminated by outlying measurements (outliers). Therefore, our contribution can be also described as robustification of the metalearning process by using a robust prediction error. In addition to performing the metalearning study by means of both standard and robust approaches, we search for a detailed interpretation in two particular situations. The results of detailed investigation show that the knowledge obtained by a metalearning approach standing on standard principles is prone to great variability and instability, which makes it hard to believe that the results are not just a consequence of a mere chance. Such aspect of metalearning seems not to have been previously analyzed in literature.
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Various Approaches to Szroeter’s Test for Regression Quantiles
Kalina, Jan ; Peštová, Barbora
Regression quantiles represent an important tool for regression analysis popular in econometric applications, for example for the task of detecting heteroscedasticity in the data. Nevertheless, they need to be accompanied by diagnostic tools for verifying their assumptions. The paper is devoted to heteroscedasticity testing for regression quantiles, while their most important special case is commonly denoted as the regression median. Szroeter’s test, which is one of available heteroscedasticity tests for the least squares, is modified here for the regression median in three different ways: (1) asymptotic test based on the asymptotic representation for regression quantiles, (2) permutation test based on residuals, and (3) exact approximate test, which has a permutation character and represents an approximation to an exact test. All three approaches can be computed in a straightforward way and their principles can be extended also to other heteroscedasticity tests. The theoretical results are expected to be extended to other regression quantiles and mainly to multivariate quantiles.
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Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics
Peštová, Barbora ; Hušková, Marie (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee) ; Jarušková, Daniela (referee)
Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics Barbora Peštová Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Czech Republic Abstract of the doctoral thesis We deal with sequences of observations that are naturally ordered in time and assume various underlying stochastic models. These models are parametric and some of the parameters are possibly subject to change at some unknown time point. The main goal of this thesis is to test whether such an unknown change has occurred or not. The core of the change point methods presented here is in ratio type statistics based on maxima of cumulative sums. Firstly, an overview of thesis' starting points is given. Then we focus on methods for detecting a gradual change in mean. Consequently, procedures for detection of an abrupt change in mean are generalized by considering a score function. We explore the possibility of applying the bootstrap methods for obtaining critical values, while disturbances of the change point model are considered as weakly dependent. Procedures for detection of changes in parameters of linear regression models are shown as well and a permutation version of the test is derived. Then, a related problem of testing a change in autoregression parameter is studied....
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Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics
Peštová, Barbora
Testing Structural Changes Using Ratio Type Statistics Barbora Peštová Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Czech Republic Abstract of the doctoral thesis We deal with sequences of observations that are naturally ordered in time and assume various underlying stochastic models. These models are parametric and some of the parameters are possibly subject to change at some unknown time point. The main goal of this thesis is to test whether such an unknown change has occurred or not. The core of the change point methods presented here is in ratio type statistics based on maxima of cumulative sums. Firstly, an overview of thesis' starting points is given. Then we focus on methods for detecting a gradual change in mean. Consequently, procedures for detection of an abrupt change in mean are generalized by considering a score function. We explore the possibility of applying the bootstrap methods for obtaining critical values, while disturbances of the change point model are considered as weakly dependent. Procedures for detection of changes in parameters of linear regression models are shown as well and a permutation version of the test is derived. Then, a related problem of testing a change in autoregression parameter is studied....
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Free movement of persons from the perspective of coordination of health insurance of migrants within the EU countries
Peštová, Barbora ; Scheu, Harald Christian (advisor) ; Štefko, Martin (referee)
English summary Free movement of persons from the perspective of health insurance coordination of migrants in the countries of EU The aim of this thesis is to render an integrated commentary of basic rights, which are granted by European Union to its citizens in the field of health care, mainly through coordination regulations. It concentrates on specific situations when people travel to different member states, temporarily or permanently, and their opportunities of access to the health care system in a different state than the competent state. Furthermore, it follows with systems which are used by member states between themselves to provide effective realization of these rights and the interpretation of relevant provisions of coordination regulations by the Court of Justice of the European Union. The thesis is thematically divided into three parts, whereas the first introductory part contains three chapters concerning basic terminology and explaining terms related with health insurance in the EU such as social policy, social law and social rights, free movement of persons, social security and finally health insurance and health care. Historical progress of social policy in the European Union explained in chapter two, helps to increase the awareness of the backfround, which is standing behind current...
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Robust Regression Estimators: A Comparison of Prediction Performance
Kalina, Jan ; Peštová, Barbora
Regression represents an important methodology for solving numerous tasks of applied econometrics. This paper is devoted to robust estimators of parameters of a linear regression model, which are preferable whenever the data contain or are believed to contain outlying measurements (outliers). While various robust regression estimators are nowadays available in standard statistical packages, the question remains how to choose the most suitable regression method for a particular data set. This paper aims at comparing various regression methods on various data sets. First, the prediction performance of common robust regression estimators are compared on a set of 24 real data sets from public repositories. Further, the results are used as input for a metalearning study over 9 selected features of individual data sets. On the whole, the least trimmed squares turns out to be superior to the least squares or M-estimators in the majority of the data sets, while the process of metalearning does not succeed in a reliable prediction of the most suitable estimator for a given data set.
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Exact Inference In Robust Econometrics under Heteroscedasticity
Kalina, Jan ; Peštová, Barbora
The paper is devoted to the least weighted squares estimator, which is one of highly robust estimators for the linear regression model. Novel permutation tests of heteroscedasticity are proposed. Also the asymptotic behavior of the permutation test statistics of the Goldfeld-Quandt and Breusch-Pagan tests is investigated. A numerical experiment on real economic data is presented, which also shows how to perform a robust prediction model under heteroscedasticity. Theoretical results may be simply extended to the context of multivariate quantiles
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On Exact Heteroscedasticity Testing for Robust Regression
Kalina, Jan ; Peštová, Barbora
The paper is devoted to the least weighted squares estimator, which is one of highly robust estimators for the linear regression model. Novel permutation tests of heteroscedasticity are proposed. Also the asymptotic behavior of the permutation test statistics of the Goldfeld-Quandt and Breusch-Pagan tests is investigated. A numerical experiment on real economic data is presented, which also shows how to perform a robust prediction model under heteroscedasticity.
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