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Social Cohesion and Growth
Frydrych, Milan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Franče, Václav (referee)
In this thesis, we examine the effect of social cohesion on economic growth. As a measure of social cohesion, we use Social Cohesion Index that combines several data sources into one comprehensible index covering 155 countries. We deal with model uncertainty and endogeneity of social cohesion at the same time by employing Bayesian model averaging together with two-stage least square estimation. Considering more than twenty regressors for fifty-three countries, we show that social cohesion has a positive effect on economic growth. We perform a prior sensitivity analysis to assess variability of social cohesion across different prior structures. As a robustness check, we include Rule of Law and Integration variables into our model and estimate it with Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging (IVBMA) methodology to cope with a considerable degree of instrument uncertainty. The results suggest that social cohesion is indeed a vital determinant of economic growth. 1
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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used together with other leading and coincident indica- tors to...
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Can Monetary Policy Create Asset Price Bubbles?
Mareček, Jan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to find out whether expansionary monetary policy creates an upward pressure on asset prices and can thus create asset price bubbles, or more precisely significantly contribute to their creation. In doing so, we test the significance and the sign of coefficient on monetary policy stance indicator as a determinant of real estate and stock prices on 19 OECD countries quarterly panel data since 1980. Further we assess periods of real estate and stock price bubbles and periods of expansionary monetary policy and examine their relationship. The asset price bubbles are assessed on the basis of relevant price indices developments without examining the underlying fundamentals. Based on our results it appears that expansionary monetary policy has a positive effect on real estate prices and can thus contribute to formation of real estate bubbles. The effect on stock prices is ambiguous and mostly statistically insignificant. By examining the relationship between assessed asset price bubbles and periods of expansionary monetary policy we found out that monetary expansion is neither sufficient nor necessary condition for formation of asset price bubbles but also that there is a relatively strong relationship between these events. JEL Classification C23, E43, E52, E58, G12, N10, N20...
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U.S. Monetary Policy and Bank Liquidity Creation: VAR Evidence
Lacko, Branislav ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
With recent financial crisis the importance of liquidity not only as indicator of financial health of banks heightened. Thus this thesis aims the focus to relationship between real economy and bank liquidity creation, and provides empirical evidence of significant relationship between bank liquidity creation and GDP or inflation. Moreover, it shows that implementation of bank liquidity creation indicator into Taylor rule, in order to address for financial stability and health, is suitable alternative for financial stress index.
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Exchange Rate Pass - Through to Domestic Prices: The Case of the Czech Republic
Hájek, Jan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
In this thesis, we examine the exchange rate pass-through phenomenon in the Czech Re- public over 1998:1-2014:1 period. As our vector autoregression results indicate, short-term pass-through effect slowed down and prolongated its duration substantially. Consequently, the accumulated value to be transmitted increased compared to previous findings. In the case of exchange rate pass-through effect to CPI, the accumulated response after 18 months accounts for about 40-60 per cent. In this regard, our time-varying results using unique Chebyshev Time Polynomials points to period 2008-2014 to be the leading cause. It seems that during macroeconomically less stable periods the exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic tends to increase. Even though the consensus on the pass-through lev- els and its development over time is rather scarce, we find support for our conclusions. More interestingly, having in mind November's currency interventions of the Czech Na- tional Bank to weaken koruna (and thus avoiding deflation), our results reveal that this measure has become much more effective in the latest years (as consequence of the crisis) than previous literature suggested. Following up on that, it seems that exchange rate regained some of its rather historical importance while conducting monetary policy...
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Comparison of the inflation prediction approaches: Monetary growth vs. Output gap analysis
Kuliková, Veronika ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
Inflation is one of the often used monetary indicators in conducting monetary policy. Even though money supply is an essential determinant of inflation, it is not used in inflation modeling. Currently, output gap is considered as most predicative variable. This thesis brings the empirical evidence on the hypothesis of money supply carrying more information on estimating inflation than the output gap. It is provided on the case of 16 developed European economies using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA is a comprehensive approach that deals with the model uncertainty and thus solves the variable selection problem. The results of analysis confirmed that money supply includes more information of inflation than the output gap and thus should be used in inflation modeling. These outcomes are robust towards prior selection and high correlation of some variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Ethiopia: An Empirical Study
Taye, Alemayehu Demissew ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
In this paper, a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach is used to empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on output (measured by real GDP) and prices (measured by consumer price index) in Ethiopia. We isolated the SVAR structural shocks by imposing restrictions on the long- run behavior of the variables in the model, which places a recursive restriction on the disturbances of the SVAR. We considered three alternative policy instruments i.e. broad money supply (M2), lending rate and the real effective exchange rate (REER). We find evidence that price-based nominal anchors (Interest rate and REER) have an effect on real output, a modest effect of the lending rate while a significant effect of REER is documented, with a slightly faster speed of adjustment. Similarly, innovation in the quantity based nominal anchor (M2) affects economic activities significantly. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Voting in central banks: An empirical analysis
Jonášová, Júlia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Fišerová, Tereza (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to assess informative power of the voting records of central banks. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of future repo rate changes based on the voting records in longer horizons, level of disagreement in Monetary policy committee (MPC) and financial markets' expectations, comparison between results of the analysis before and during the financial crisis and weighting every vote according to attendance of the policymaker. The results confirm that voting records are, indeed, informative about future monetary policy changes and can increase predictability of the particular central banks. Negative dispersion coefficient for the Bank of England (BoE) and Czech National Bank (CNB) suggests that increase in uncertainty stimulates looser monetary policy. For the BoE and Riksbank voting records signal the change of the repo rate approved also at the further meetings, which is partially true for the Czech Republic and Poland. Regarding the period of financial crisis, it is shown that markets heavily rely on the minutes as the source of knowledge and the magnitudes of the estimate for the skew coefficient are much higher. The effect of experience is present in the case of CNB and National Bank of Poland (NBP).
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: The Case of the Czech Republic
Hájek, Jan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
In this thesis, we examine the exchange rate pass-through phenomenon in the Czech Re- public over 1998:1-2014:1 period. As our vector autoregression results indicate, short-term pass-through effect slowed down and prolongated its duration substantially. Consequently, the accumulated value to be transmitted increased compared to previous findings. In the case of exchange rate pass-through effect to CPI, the accumulated response after 18 months accounts for about 40-60 per cent. In this regard, our time-varying results using unique Chebyshev Time Polynomials points to period 2008-2014 to be the leading cause. It seems that during macroeconomically less stable periods the exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic tends to increase. Even though the consensus on the pass-through lev- els and its development over time is rather scarce, we find support for our conclusions. More interestingly, having in mind November's currency interventions of the Czech Na- tional Bank to weaken koruna (and thus avoiding deflation), our results reveal that this measure has become much more effective in the latest years (as consequence of the crisis) than previous literature suggested. Following up on that, it seems that exchange rate regained some of its rather historical importance while conducting monetary policy...
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