Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework

Rasenko, Elena

The goal of the following paper is to analyse the trade potential for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and China in the trade of food products. Even though the trade in food products is comparably low, there are several reasons why it is worth a deeper analysis. Food security is having an important role in the Chinese domestic politics. Due to environmental, socio- economic and demographic changes, China cannot be self-sufficient and is therefore dependent on food imports. Since the introduction of the One Belt One Road Initiative and the 16+1 framework, China aims to improve the cooperation and trade in food commodities with participating countries. CEE can be a reliable partner because it produces high quality products with comparative advantages. With the help of the Gravity Model, the effects of the 16+1 framework was estimated, as well as the trade potential. Following the results, the introduction of the 16+1 framework has a positive and significant effect on agricultural trade between CEE and China. However, only five countries have potential to increase their food exports to China, while the remaining eleven already exceed their food exports. China on the other hand, is exporting below its potential in most of the cases.

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