Efekt německých voleb na vývoj akciových trhů Visegradských zemí

Skála, Jakub

This thesis deals with the behaviour of stock markets during the period of election process. We focus on the influence of elections to the German Bundestag on stock market performance of the countries allied in Visegrad Group during the reference period 1994-2013 covering six Bundestag elections. Germany is a major export partner for all members of Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We examine whether there are abnormal returns on stock markets in Visegrad Group countries around the date of German Bundestag elections. We thus examine if the fact that performance of German economy is important for performance of economies of countries allied in Visegrad Group means that Bundestag elections influences their stock markets. We also analyze the influence of elections to German Bundestag on domestic stock market during the reference period 1961-2013. To measure the effect of elections we employ event study methodology using the mean-adjusted return model to measure normal returns. Our event window consists of 65 trading days around the election day (-15,50). We use the estimation window of 100 days (-150,-51). We assess our main hypothesis for each country around every Bundestag elections in our reference period separately over three event windows and also over eight event...

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