Analysis of risk factors associated with dengue in Southeast Asia

Urbanová, Klára

The thesis focuses on analyses of relations between risk factors and dengue fever incidence in a selected area of Southeast Asia region. Specifically, it focuses on the Philippines, where the governmental organizations provide relatively sufficient amount of data. First, general problematic of Neglected Tropical Diseases with focus on dengue fever is introduced. Its transmission and influencing factors are specified. Then, current methods of dengue incidence and risk factors relationship modelling are reviewed. Furthermore, statistical processing of available data is carried out, especially, in terms of detailed analysis of the relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence in the Philippines. Based on the obtained results, a mathematical model describing the relationship between dengue, cumulative precipitation and mean temperature on regional and weekly basis, is created. Model estimation is performed with generalized linear regression by applying negative binomial distribution. With the model, the dengue incidence dependency on selected risk factors was verified. Concurrently, overall complexity of the disease development and transmission was verified by the model.

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