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Armenia's accession to the Customs Union : gains of losses?
Ghazaryan, Sevan ; Svoboda, Karel (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee) ; Manchin, Miriam (referee)
Armenia is going to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (the Eurasian Customs Union) in the coming months. The author uses partial-equilibrium model to investigate and calculate trade diversion, trade creation and net welfare effects of accession on the Armenian economy. The thesis concludes that the membership in the customs union would lead to welfare losses and negative static effects. The main reason is the pure trade diversion effect on Armenia resulting from the increased external tariff rate. Adopting the common external tariff of the Eurasian Customs Union would raise the prices of those imported goods which flow from outside the customs union. As the majority of Armenian imports come from outside the Eurasian Customs Union, the increase in import prices would carry high social costs for the Armenian consumers. In addition, the absence of shared border with the customs union member-states substantially diminishes the potential benefits from possible non-tariff barrier facilitation. Therefore, the thesis strongly recommends against the accession.
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The Trade Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Based on Gravity Model.
Kong, Xiangyi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Chondrogiannis, Ilias (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...
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Armenia's accession to the Customs Union : gains of losses?
Ghazaryan, Sevan ; Svoboda, Karel (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee) ; Manchin, Miriam (referee)
Armenia is going to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (the Eurasian Customs Union) in the coming months. The author uses partial-equilibrium model to investigate and calculate trade diversion, trade creation and net welfare effects of accession on the Armenian economy. The thesis concludes that the membership in the customs union would lead to welfare losses and negative static effects. The main reason is the pure trade diversion effect on Armenia resulting from the increased external tariff rate. Adopting the common external tariff of the Eurasian Customs Union would raise the prices of those imported goods which flow from outside the customs union. As the majority of Armenian imports come from outside the Eurasian Customs Union, the increase in import prices would carry high social costs for the Armenian consumers. In addition, the absence of shared border with the customs union member-states substantially diminishes the potential benefits from possible non-tariff barrier facilitation. Therefore, the thesis strongly recommends against the accession.
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Vliv východního rozšíření EU na obchod vybraných nových členských států se třetími zeměmi (Trade Effects of the East Enlargement in the CEECs)
Polášek, Petr ; Němcová, Ingeborg (advisor) ; Joklová, Kateřina (referee)
The thesis analyses the effect of the Eastern enlargement on goods flows into four CEECs. In the beginning, the Eastern enlargement and numerous related economic effects are briefly characterised. After that it focuses on trade diversion and trade creation effects, starting with a concise discussion of the traditional customs union theory and followed by the explanation of the choice of the estimation method. A gravity model applied on a panel data set is then used to model the import flows into the EU15 and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The results showed that a careful choice of the model specification and estimating technique is needed and the model that controlled for four sources of unobserved heterogeneity (time, country pair, importer, and exporter specific characteristics) was chosen. Based on this model's results, we could expect a significant increase of imports from EFTA into these countries but aggregately we should not expect any trade diversion as no further redirecting of import flows from the rest of the world is predicted. Eventually, some of the real trade flow developments (territorial and commodity structures and revealed comparative advantages of selected regions) are described.
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