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Forecasts of the public debt for the Czech Republic
Sentivany, Daniel ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is to forecast future trajectory of the public debt level of the Czech Republic when taking into account ongoing fiscal reforms of the government and the after- math of the global financial crisis. A short survey of existing literature concerning fiscal austerity is presented in the first part, followed by the further motivation for the forecast- ing of the public debt level. Second part of thesis focuses mainly on the most important question, which is sustainability of the debt. We found out, that the public debt of the Czech Republic is clearly unsustainable, we also calculated so called fiscal gap to determine the amount needed to sustain it. The last third part contains numerous scenarios showing the future development of the public debt of the Czech Republic starting the year 2003, up to the year 2060. According to our results when assuming that no strict fiscal reforms will be introduced by the government in the following decades, we found that the level of the debt in the year 2060 will exceed 260% of GDP. Keywords: public debt; fiscal gap; public deficit; public budgets; public debt forecast; sustainability; debt consolidation; debt management Author's e-mail: sentivany.daniel@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail: jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
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DSGE modeling of business cycle properties of Czech labor market
Sentivany, Daniel ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Rečka, Lukáš (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to develop a DSGE model that accounts for the key business cycle properties of the Czech labor market. We used standard New Keynesian framework for monetary policy analysis and incorporated an elaborated labor market setup with equi- librium wage derived via an alternating offer bargaining protocol originally proposed by Rubinstein (1982) and follow the work of Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (2013) in the following steps. Firstly, we calibrated the closed economy model according to values suited for the Czech economy and found that the model can not only account for higher volatility of the real wage and unemployment, but can also explain the contemporaneous rise of both wages and employment after an expansionary shock in the economy, so called Shimer puzzle (Shimer, 2005a). Secondly, we demonstrated that the alternating offer bar- gaining sharing rule outperforms the Nash sharing rule under assumption of using the hiring costs in our framework (more so while using search costs) and therefore is better suited for use in larger scale models. Thirdly, we concluded that after estimating the labor market parameters using the Czech data, our model disproved the relatively low values linked to the probabilities of unsuccessful bargaining and job destruction. JEL...
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Forecasts of the public debt for the Czech Republic
Sentivany, Daniel ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is to forecast future trajectory of the public debt level of the Czech Republic when taking into account ongoing fiscal reforms of the government and the after- math of the global financial crisis. A short survey of existing literature concerning fiscal austerity is presented in the first part, followed by the further motivation for the forecast- ing of the public debt level. Second part of thesis focuses mainly on the most important question, which is sustainability of the debt. We found out, that the public debt of the Czech Republic is clearly unsustainable, we also calculated so called fiscal gap to determine the amount needed to sustain it. The last third part contains numerous scenarios showing the future development of the public debt of the Czech Republic starting the year 2003, up to the year 2060. According to our results when assuming that no strict fiscal reforms will be introduced by the government in the following decades, we found that the level of the debt in the year 2060 will exceed 260% of GDP. Keywords: public debt; fiscal gap; public deficit; public budgets; public debt forecast; sustainability; debt consolidation; debt management Author's e-mail: sentivany.daniel@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail: jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
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