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Let the young vote: Potential effects of lowering the voting age on elections in Czechia
Čejka, Štěpán ; Palanský, Miroslav (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
Several countries throughout the world have already adopted a reform that enables younger voters, from 15 or 16 years old, to vote. This thesis examines the potential influence of including such voters in the Czech Republic on recent elections. A key feature of my work is that it combines several methods together to model the voter turnout of this age group. To estimate the potential voter turnout of the 15 to 17-year-old category we use fixed effects estimation, together with the exact numbers of citizens from the 2021 state Census and combine them together with the results of Student election that are held by the People in Need organization. The uniqueness of this thesis is that we model the voter turnout in every of the 76 Districts from the 2012 Region election until the 2021 Chamber of Deputies election. We particularly focus on the 2017 Chamber of Deputies and the 2018 Presidential elections both with very narrow outcomes. Finally, we estimate that the inclusion of the young voters most likely would not alter the results of neither election.
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Impact of the international trade agreements between EU and African countries
Svoboda, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
The international trade policy between the EU and African developing countries covers the negotiations of various agreements aiming to promote mutual trade flows. The goal seems to both exploit the economic potential and support local development, including poverty or inequality reduction. To gain the maximum utilization of the benefits of trade, agreements need to be optimized and set toward the right degree of integration. Therefore, this paper provides the ex-post analysis of trade agreements concluded during the period 1948-2021 to evaluate their impact on mutual trade volume. The Fixed effects and the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation methods are used in combination with two sets of dummy variables. The results reveal the negative impact of the EU-African agreements across all depth levels in comparison to the general arrangements. Furthermore, the African continent shows a relative trade reduction among agreements containing too few and too many integration ratios emphasizing the necessity of finding the right balance. Disaggregating the effect into the African regions, West Africa seems to be the worst-performing area thus far. Finally, we have found strong evidence of trade diversion questioning the positive welfare of African nations. According to our findings, the renegotiation...
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The impact of COVID-19 on election outcomes: The case of the Czech Republic
Válek, Vojtěch ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the election results in the 2021 parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic. Voter turnout together with the results of several political parties is analyzed at the district level. First, the election results of 2021 are examined separately using OLS regression, heteroskedasticity is not detected in the model. A panel dataset is then created, which also includes election results from 2013 and 2017. Based on the results of the Hausman test, the fxed efects method is used to analyze the panel data, and the frst-diferencing method is used as well for comparison. Pairs of years are then analyzed with the use of frst-diferencing, when the results are frst estimated without 2013, and then without 2017. The results of the analysis mainly show a signifcant relationship between the number of infected people and the results of individual political parties. While for political party ANO this relationship is negative, it is rather positive for the other political parties. The second dependent variable of interest is the number of deaths related to COVID-19. In this case, the results of the analysis do not indicate a signifcant connection with the election results. 1
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Seasonality in Cryptocurrency Markets
Mošovský, Jan ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Šíla, Jan (referee)
Ten years have passed since the emergence of Bitcoin and with it cryptocur- rencies as a new class of assets. Now, cryptocurrencies are not uncommon tool of investment and subject of academic research. This thesis focuses on investigating possible presence of weekly and monthly seasonal patterns in cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, Monero, Dash, Stellar and partly Ethereum, which are selected as representative sample. Insuffi- cient evidence is found for the day-of-the-week effect, the January effect is however revealed as significant by different methods in the whole sample, with cryptocurrencies generally exhibiting higher returns towards the end of the year and lowest from January to March. Examining probable causes of revealed seasonality, it is found that these are not likely to be caused by peculiar price development in 2017 and 2018, as well as the Chinese New Year or brought to the market by proposed price drivers of Bitcoin. How- ever, significant evidence for correlation of patterns followed by Bitcoin and other examined cryptocurrencies is found.
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