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Automotive fuel taxes and cross-border shopping
Kubovič, Jozef ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis investigates the presence of the cross-border shopping for automotive fuel between the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries over the time period from January 2005 to December 2012. Tax rates on fuels were described as one of the main source of price difference between countries that induces cross-border shopping. Using monthly data for diesel and petrol we used error correction model and estimated both long-term and short-term relationships between consumption of fuel in the Czech Republic and prices in Czech Republic and neighbouring countries. We found the evidence of a negative relationship between prices of petrol in the Czech Republic and its consumption as well as a positive relationship between relative price of petrol in Germany upon the consumption of petrol in the Czech Republic, which indicates presence of the cross-border shopping from Germany to Czech Republic.
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Comparison of coherent demand systems: The case of meat demand in the Czech Republic
Dlasková, Karolína ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
There are many models used to estimate demand elasticities. We present a complex review of these studies in our thesis. Our empirical goal is to compare LES, Translog and QUAIDS demand systems according to their performance. In parallel, we estimate the elasticities of meat demand in the Czech Republic for the period 2010 - 2015 using the data of the household budget survey. Comparing the systems by the Akaike and Schwarz criterion, LES demonstrates the best fit for this kind of data. The average of price elasticity for different kinds of meat in the examined period is -0.99, income elasticity then equals to 1.12. These results can have important implications for tax policy, or for commercial use. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Demand, comparison, LES, Translog, QUAIDS, meat Author's e-mail 55606678@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail milan.scasny@czp.cuni.cz
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Reaction of household energy demand to improvements in energy efficiency : What about the rebound effect?
Rubínová, Stela ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
Energy efficiency improvements have become a major hope for decoupling the energy demand from economic growth and for achieving environmental goals. Nevertheless, effectiveness of policies based on promoting energy efficiency may be undermined by behavioral responses. More efficiently produced energy service becomes cheaper and economic theory then suggests that consumers should demand more of it, which will cause a loss of the potential technological saving. The phenomenon is called the rebound effect and it has become a focus of energy economists since early 80s. However, even today there is no clear consensus on its importance. Quantification of the rebound effect is mainly hampered by poor data availability and the comparison of results is not straightforward due to methodological differences. Our thesis concentrates right on the economic theory of the demand for energy services, definitions and methodology of its estimation. It provides a comprehensive overview of what was done in the domain and suggests which methodological approaches correspond the most to the economic theory.
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Forecasting and nowcasting power of confidence indikators:Evidence for Central Europe
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for nowcasting and short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic and three other Central European countries. The predictive power of both the Czech business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation, so called nowcast. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on the model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. Cross- country comparison confirms economic downturn nowcasting power of confidence indices in Hungary and Poland and fails to confirm such an ability of Slovak confidence indicators. One-quarter-ahead forecasts brought mixed results and therefore we conclude that nowcasting and forecasting properties of...
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Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in European Union
Balitskiy, Sergey ; Strielkowski, Wadim (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
"Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in European Union" by Sergey Balitskiy Abstract: The objective of this Master thesis is an evaluation of relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Europe. The sample includes panel time series data over the period from 1997 to 2011 for 26 EU member states (countries of the Euro zone). Based on neoclassical growth model, a multivariate model including gross fixed capital formation and total labor forces of a country as additional explanatory variables was created. Using recent econometric techniques: panel cointegration tests and error correction modeling, it was found that there existed long-run relationship between economic growth, natural gas consumption, labor and capital. In addition, it was investigated that in the short-run there existed bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth. It appears that the causality between economic growth and the natural gas consumption is positive. On the other hand, the reverse causality (a relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth) appears to be negative.
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Empirical analysis of Czech think tanks and their role in public policy
Frič, Martin ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis studies the ability of Czech think tanks to take part in a public policy process. It also analyses Czech think tank's performance in terms of attracting the public, the ability to attract policy makers and evaluates Czech think tank's transparency. To obtain results the thesis uses quantitative analysis. Data used in empirical part were obtained mostly from online sources. Data used in part dealing with the think tank's ability to attract policy makers come from a self-conducted online survey. According to my results, Czech think tanks are not yet able to take part in public policy process. This result comes from high variation in Czech think tank's transparency. Empirical research also evaluated institutions which fight against corruption as the most transparent ones. Furthermore, empirical research evaluated a think tank established by former Czech president to be the best in case of attracting public and media attention. This work may serve think tank's representatives, which may use it to detect weaknesses in the performance of their institutions. Moreover, donors will receive an overview of work conducted by think tanks in the Czech Republic.
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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Analysis of the Natural Gas Market during the Period of Deregulation - A Comparison of Selected European Countries
Mirková, Barbora ; Mikolášek, Jakub (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The liberalization of gas markets is in the European Union and especially in its new Member States a current topic. This thesis is devoted to a comparison of the liberalization processes in three Central European countries - the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. The thesis first introduces the concepts of public and natural monopolies, the specific characteristics of gas markets and the legislation of the European Union that underlies the liberalization. Further, the thesis takes a close look at the developments in the gas markets of the three countries. The focus lies mainly on the national legislation, opening of demand side and changes in the market structure, including unbundling, new entrants and supplier switching. The final chapter of the thesis analyzes and compares the progress in liberalization of the individual markets by calculating the market concentrations using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index.
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The Theory of Capital in Past Economic Thought
Tejkalová, Natálie ; Průša, Jan (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to provide an overview of the development of the theory of capital until 1950's. We identify the main questions that are to be answered in the theory of capital and then recall the respective opinions of several well-known economists, including Adam Smith, Eugene von Böhm-Bawerk, Fridrich A. von Hayek and Joan Robinson. Main focus of our thesis is on the role of capital in production. We discuss the importance of time factor in capital theories. To illustrate the possible employment of time in the theory of production, we present the concepts of roundaboutness and production period, which are typical for the Austrian economic school. Three capital controversies are described to show the contrast between various theories of capital and to suggest the implications of their disaccord for the whole economic theory.
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Smoking - impact on the state budget and its fair taxation
Hait, Pavel ; Mikolášek, Jakub (advisor) ; Mertlík, Pavel (referee)
The paper addresses the impact of smoking in the Czech Republic in 2009. The aim is to describe the current facts and trends of tobacco consumption, assess the mortality attributable to smoking, compute its financial impact on the Czech state budget, evaluate the transmission of tax changes into the retail price of cigarettes, assess consumer price elasticity for cigarettes, and compute a fair excise tax on cigarettes for the Czech Republic as well as the tax which would maximise the benefits of smoking for the state budget. For our purposes, we define fairness as a situation in which there is no net redistribution of state budget funds between two groups of citizens: non-smokers and smokers. Smokers create benefits (for example, savings on pensions due to their earlier deaths) and costs (for instance, increased health care costs) for the state budget. We search for a tax rate that would balance smoking-associated costs and benefits. Furthermore, we also compute the tax which would maximise net revenues from smoking to the government. We realised these findings for the Czech Republic, 2009: we observed that there were 22,013 deaths attributable to smoking. About 2.281 billion cigarettes were sold illegally. The costs to the state budget caused by smoking were estimated to 30,547 million CZK,...
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