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Gambler's Fallacy in Investors' Decision-making
Javůrková, Tereza ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis focuses on the Gambler's Fallacy and its effect on the behavior of investors operating in the stock market. The aim is to incorporate the psychological findings about this behavioral phenomenon to the field of finance. This allows us to analyze the dynamics of the stock market that results from human misconceptions about the probabilities of independent events. More specifically, we analyze the profitability of two types of virtual investors whose decision-making is affected by distorted probabilities based on the Gambler's Fallacy. We further define two other trivial benchmark investors' strategies with different levels of randomness. We examine investors' gains in a simulated efficient market as well as in the real S&P 500 index constituents. Our analysis builds on three different approaches: simulation analysis, empirical frequency analysis, and asset pricing models. By applying the simulation approach together with frequency analysis on the historical stock prices, we find that investors affected by the Gambler's Fallacy gain statistically higher returns than a random investor. Then, we ap- ply both the three-factor and five-factor Fama & French asset pricing model to stocks sorted into portfolios based on their previous earnings per share evo- lution. Our findings reveal a negative...
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Problems of Penitencial Care and Its Consequences Projecting into the Field Postpenitencial Care
Javůrková, Tereza ; Dočkal, Jan (advisor) ; Bachmann, Otto (referee)
I worked on various philosophic themes relating to punishment and on the origins of the role of punishment in society. This chapter explores the nature of incarceration and the problems which can arise from a penology viewpoint. I later focus on the psychological aspects of the incarceration period, the stress and trauma involved and the various problems resulting from this. The following chapter is dedicated to the problems of aggression in penal institutions. I later focus on alternatives to typical incarceration methods, examine the alternatives and look at the advantages and dis advantages of the various approaches. I then focus on rehabilitation and reAsocialisation programs for prisoners released conditionally and those who served their entire sentence. These programs work with the incarcerated who were conditionally released from prison and also with those who served their sentence in its entirety. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Stochastic claims reserving with double chain ladder
Javůrková, Tereza ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
This thesis deals with an important problem of insurance which is forecasting outstanding claims liabilities. It describes the Chain-Ladder method, the basic method for forecasting outstanding claims, and then it's extention to Double Chain-Ladder method. It also uses the number of reported claims for a beter estimate. The final forecast is calculated from the IBNR and RBNS reserves which are estimated separetly. Finly we aplly those methods to a real life dataset. The results shows differences betwen those two methods and different ways of programming. 1
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Problems of Penitencial Care and Its Consequences Projecting into the Field Postpenitencial Care
Javůrková, Tereza ; Dočkal, Jan (advisor) ; Bachmann, Otto (referee)
I worked on various philosophic themes relating to punishment and on the origins of the role of punishment in society. This chapter explores the nature of incarceration and the problems which can arise from a penology viewpoint. I later focus on the psychological aspects of the incarceration period, the stress and trauma involved and the various problems resulting from this. The following chapter is dedicated to the problems of aggression in penal institutions. I later focus on alternatives to typical incarceration methods, examine the alternatives and look at the advantages and dis advantages of the various approaches. I then focus on rehabilitation and reAsocialisation programs for prisoners released conditionally and those who served their entire sentence. These programs work with the incarcerated who were conditionally released from prison and also with those who served their sentence in its entirety. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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