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Using Model Averaging Techniques to Examine Determinants of Stock Returns
Tóthová, Miriama ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
The predictability of stock returns has been a widely discussed topic in the fi- nancial literature. In the presented thesis, we examine the effect of 20 possible predictors on S&P 500 excess returns in the time period from June 1998 till December 2016. However, traditional models examining stock returns usually ignore the issue of model uncertainty. In order to explicitly incorporate uncer- tainty about the model into the analysis, we employ two model averaging tech- niques, in particular Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and frequentist model averaging (FMA). As a robustness check we use three different combinations of priors within BMA framework. We assess the quality of their predictions and compare the results with the traditional methods based on model selection cri- teria. We find out that among the most important variables explaining excess returns on S&P 500 stock index are three-month Treasury bill rate, dividend yield, term premium, payout ratio, excess returns lagged twice, and default risk premium. These are robust across all models we have estimated. Although fre- quentist model averaging provides in-sample predictions superior to BMA as the literature suggests and it also performs better than models selected accord- ing to popular statistical criteria, it fails to outperform the Bayesian...
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An investigation of Foreign Currency loans exposure contribution to the soundness of the Financial System
Özalan, Eda ; Tůma, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis investigates the impact of foreign currency lending on financial stability for the case of Balkans, CEE and Balkans and CEE together. Such investigation has been carried out by identifying the impact of foreign currency lending across 3 main channels, which are: 1) households, 2) non-financial corporations, and 3) central government. This thesis was able to prove the foreign currency lending relevance, significance, main impact, and remarkable heterogeneity characterizing the Balkans and CEE samples. With respect to each of the subsamples and the full sample, the results can be summarized in 3 main points. For the case of Balkans, the financial instability has been identified to be transmitted through the household and government channels. Regarding the CEE, the dynamics are completely different as household channel provides mixed evidence, while the non-financial corporation one serves as the main transmission channel. When investigating the full sample, it has been pointed out that the prevailing dynamics reveal the non-financial corporation and government channels as the ones with the largest contribution to financial instability. JEL Classification C33, C36, F34, G20, G21, G32 Keywords Financial stability, foreign currency lending, household, non-financial corporation, central...
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Measuring Bank Efficiency
Iršová, Zuzana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Michalíková, Eva (referee)
This thesis provides an empirical insight on the frontier efficiency estimation methods in banking and their sensitivity toward the change in definition of particular characteristics in the techniques used. The two methods, stochastic frontier approach (SFA) and deterministic data envelopment analysis (DEA) are compared over several variations, results of which are supported by the meta-regression part including 32 studies on the USA and 14 on the transitional countries. The main findings of this study include: the efficiency score is highly dependent on the methodological design, the largest variation in the estimated scores of SFA and DEA are due to Fourier-flexible functional form application, and the rank order correlation between these methods raises with an increase of the homogeneity degree in the sample. JEL Classification C13, C61, G21, L25, P27 Keywords Bank Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Approach, Data Envelopment Analysis, Meta-Regression Analysis Author's e-mail zuzana.irsova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail petr.jakubik@cnb.cz
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Extending volatility models with market sentiment indicators
Röhryová, Lenka ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
In this thesis, we aim to improve forecast accuracy of a heterogenous au- toregressive model (HAR) by including market sentiment indicators based on Google search volume and Twitter sentiment. We have analysed 30 com- panies of the Dow Jones index for a period of 15 months. We have performed out-of-sample forecast and compiled a ranking of the extended models based on their relative performance. We have identified three relevant variables: daily negative tweets, daily Google search volume and weekly Google search volume. These variables improve forecast accuracy of the HAR model se- parately or in a Twitter-Google combination. Some specifications improve forecast accuracy by up to 22% for particular stocks, others impair forecast accuracy by up to 24%. The combination of daily negative tweets and weekly search volume is a superior model to the basic HAR for 17 stocks according to RMSE and for 16 stocks according to MAE and MASE. The daily nega- tive tweets specification outperforms the basic HAR for 17 and 19 stocks, respectively. And, the combination of daily negative tweets and daily search volume outpaces the basic HAR for 15 and 18 stocks, respectively. Based on the average MASE improvement, the combination of daily negative tweets and weekly search volume is a clear winner as it lowers the...
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Macro-Financial challenges in Emerging Markets
Jašová, Martina ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Schmieder, Christian (referee) ; Babecký, Jan (referee) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on macroeconomics and finance. In these essays, I focus on events which adversely affect emerging markets and present challenges to economic policy and central bank thinking. My aim is to contribute to the existing empirical literature by providing new evidence on the role of private credit, effects of macroprudential policies and understanding of the exchange-rate pass-through. The first essay evaluates policy measures taken to curb bank credit growth in the private sector in the pre-crisis period 2003-2007. The analysis is based on an original survey conducted on central banks in Central and Eastern Europe. The findings reveal substantial policy intervention and indicate that certain measures - particularly asset classification and provisioning rules; and loan eligibility criteria - might have been effective in taming bank credit growth. The second essay contributes to the existing literature on early warning indicators as well as to the discussion on the appropriateness of credit-to-GDP gap as a leading variable for any country for activation of the countercyclical capital buffer instrument in Basel III. We exploit long-run credit series for 36 emerging markets and evaluate their quality to signal a crisis by using receiver operating characteristics...
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Impact of the low yield environment on banks and insurers: Evidence from equity prices
Juřena, Filip ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Using static and dynamic panel data analysis, we examine how interest rates influenced equity prices of European banks and insurance companies between 2006 and 2015. Identification and quantification of effects of the low yield environment, which is a consequence of decreasing interest rates, are crucial for regulators and policy makers. Our static and dynamic models show that decreasing short-term interest rates had a negative impact both on banks and insurers. In this thesis, dynamic models are estimated by means of the Blundell- Bond system GMM estimator and we consider their results superior to the results of static models because all underlying assumptions of the dynamic models are met here. Results obtained by employing the Blundell-Bond system GMM estimator suggest that life insurers were effected more than banks, while banks were effected more than non-life insurers. In case of a 1 percentage point decrease in short-term interest rates, equity prices of life insurers are estimated to decrease on average by 18 %, equity prices of banks by 8 %, and equity prices of non-life insurers by 3 %. JEL Classification C33, C36, C61, E44, G21, G22 Keywords interest rates, equity prices, static panel analy sis, dynamic panel analysis, system GMM esti mator Author's e-mail jurena.filip.l@ gm ail.com...
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Analysis of Energy Economy to drive Ukraine's economic growth
Kariagina, Viktoriia ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Valíčková, Petra (referee)
This thesis investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in 15 post- Soviet states with a primary focus on Ukraine over the time period 1991-2013. First, panel unit root tests are applied to the time series for energy use and GDP for each post-Soviet country, then cointegration tests are run to identify the relationship between the variables. The empirical strategy of the panel data analysis is based on a neoclassical growth model specification, which includes the gross capital formation and total labor force of each country as additional explanatory variables for economic growth, along with energy inefficiency, % fossil fuel use, liberalization of the energy sector, and several other variables. The dataset is analyzed using Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects models, with Fixed Effects being identified as the optimal estimator. The results of the analysis show that there is a positive, bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and energy consumption for Ukraine (the "Feedback Hypothesis"). In addition, the results of the panel data analysis suggest that reducing energy inefficiency, increasing "own production" of energy (including renewable energy), and liberalizing the energy sector of Ukraine could all be valuable strategies for increasing the...
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Beyond Global Imbalances: Gross capital flows and the role of Shadow Banking
Václavíček, Tomáš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This study provides an empirical analysis of Shadow banking as a factor influencing cross- border financial flows. It builds upon emerging literature on Shadow banking and empirical literature on global imbalances and global financial flows. The aim of the thesis is to test three hypotheses, which relate global financial flows to lending, change in cross-border bank liabilities, and shadow banking, respectively. The second and third hypotheses are tested on gross capital flows, which, in contrast to net flows, better reflect financing activities. The results suggest that Shadow banking activities are related to higher gross capital flows in periods, when this sector is growing. These flows, however, tend to dry up when Shadow banking activities level off or decline. Among other important factors is the output growth differential and global risk aversion. JEL Classification E44, G20, G23, F32, F34, F21, F65 Keywords Shadow Banking, Global Imbalances, Capital Flows, Financial Stability Author's e-mail tomas.vaclavicek@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail petr.teply@fsv.cuni.cz
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Updating the Ultimate Forward Rate over Time: a Possible Approach
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr
This study proposes a potential methodological approach to be used by regulators when updating the Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimisation of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises the UFR based on the distance between the value implied by the long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of the UFR valid in the prior year. We employ both the Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the UFR and compare them with the observed yields using the mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameters of the proposed UFR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.
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Multi-agent Network Models of Financial Stability
Klinger, Tomáš ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Tripe, David (referee) ; Stavárek, Daniel (referee) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
The thesis focuses on banking regulation and on the nexus between financial sovereign crises. After illustrating the main mechanisms on the recent financial crisis, we construct several multi-agent network models of a financial system for testing its stability under different parameters. In the first part, we focus on the rationale for banking regulation and we describe its development including the recently introduced Basel III measures. The main conclusion of this part is that regulation is to a large extent influenced by the banks and it does not always secure financial system stability. In the second part, we build an agent-based model which enables us to simulate the impacts of various types of negative shocks given various settings of the banking system and the regulatory environment, including the capital and liquidity measures. Our simulations show firstly that sufficient capital buffers are crucial for systemic stability, secondly that the discretionary measures have little effect once a crisis breaks out and thirdly that liquidity measures are a relevant regulatory tool. In the third part, the model is extended so that it allows for testing effects of state support on systemic stability is tested with various parameter settings in Monte Carlo simulations and for testing of feedback loops in which...
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