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System of Labour Market Information
Duspivová, Kateřina ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Gottvald, Jaromír (referee) ; Galuščák, Kamil (referee)
The main aim of this dissertation thesis is to present a new system of statistical information concerning the labour market in the Czech Republic with respect to the theoretical background as well as to latest trends in the labour market statistics. The structure of the thesis is as follows. In the first chapter, there is a theoretical framework of the labour market introduced. This framework interlinks relations among employees and employers and is neutral with respect to all the economic schools of thought. Besides, I describe an actual state of the labour market statistics in the Czech Republic and evaluate its compliance with the theoretical research. The second chapter is focused on the state of the art concerning labour market statistics from the point of view of both data integration and comprehensive systems of labour market indicators. In the first part of the third chapter, there is a proposal of the new system of statistical information concerning the labour market that complies with both the economic theory and latest trends in the labour market statistics. The most likely advantage of the new system is the fact that all the key aspects of the labour market (i.e. employment as well as remuneration) are surveyed and evaluated together. In addition to the generally known indicators of both economic activity and remuneration, I propose new indicators of job creation, job destruction, hires, separations, job reallocation and worker reallocation. In the second part of the third chapter, there is a proposal of the integrated data source that will allow us to quantify all indicators provided that there are no legal restrictions concerning data integration in the Czech Republic. In last two parts of the third chapter, there are discussed both the main issues concerning the implementation of the system and the pros and cons of the system. There have never been quantified the indicators concerning job and employee flows using the linked employer-employee data in the Czech Republic, so the pilot results are introduced in the fourth chapter. It is obvious that using the new system, we could prove some hypotheses that were impossible to prove using standard set of indicators. In the last part of the fourth chapter, there are worker and job flows balanced with respect to the stock information concerning labour market in the Czech Republic. In the fifth chapter, I investigate the possibility of a wider use of the new system in order to be able to identify and analyse an array of labour market phenomena in more detail. The thesis brings a new insight to the dynamics of the labour market compared to the generally known basic set of labour market indicators. The systematic approach, based on a wider use of linked employer-employee microdata combined with new indicators, has the advantages of a higher information capability as well as of complying with the requirements of the academics.
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The Construction and Use of the Time Input-Output Tables in context of the Semi-dynamic Input-Output Model
Zbranek, Jaroslav ; Fischer, Jakub (advisor) ; Hronová, Stanislava (referee) ; Rojíček, Marek (referee)
The aim of the dissertation thesis is to develop a methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The following aim is to create an input-output model which is based on the compiled symmetric Time Input-Output tables. For the practical applications of this model it is crucial to link the created Input-Output model with the Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model. Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model in the conception of the submitted dissertation thesis takes into account several multiplier effects and presents more comprehensive tool for the use of the Input-Output analyses in this way. The first chapter focuses on the development of the issues linked to the Input-Output tables and analyses on the territory of the Czech Republic and in the world as well. The second chapter which is also theoretical is focused on mapping of different kinds of Input-Output analyses which are done in the world using Physical, Time or Hybrid Input-Output tables. The third chapter is a purely methodological because here it is described the methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables as well as methodological approach to the various sensitivity analyses. The fourth chapter focuses on the creation Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model and on the formal linking with the Input-Output model based on the Time Input-Output tables. The last fifth chapter is focused analytically. Methods described in the third chapter are applied on the official published data on the Czech economy. The analytical chapter is perceived in the submitted dissertation thesis as a tool for the sensitivity analysis in the sense of validation of the quality of the compiled Time Input-Output tables.
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Indirect methods of quarterly estimates of macroeconomic aggregates
Klučka, Jiří ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Sixta, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of my diploma thesis is to describe indirect methods that are used in the compilation of quarterly national accounts. The diploma thesis is divided into three parts and three chapters. The first chapter presents the theoretical background and describes the development of national accounts in the Czech Republic and the basic macroeconomic aggregates. The second chapter is devoted to the quarterly national accounts and mathematical and statistical methods that are used in their compilation. The third chapter describes in detail selected indirect methods, which consists in linking the indicator and aggregate. Consequently, this method is applied to the data of the Czech Republic and then quarterly estimates are constructed which are compared to actual values.
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Effective System of Evaluation and Financing of Research, Development and Innovations Project: hopes and expectations
Hronová, Stanislava
Since 2004 the methodology of evaluating research and development results (later: methodology of evaluating results achieved by research institutions) applied in the Czech Republic has gone through many revisions which however have not changed the principles of what was devised as a not very suitable system. The deformations resulting from such evaluation became fully apparent when the results were directly linked to the distribution of funds provided for the long term development of a given organisation. In 2011 the Council for Research, Development and Innovation decided on the basis of discussions within expert community about the fate of evaluation methodology, negative effects it had on research institutions, partial outputs (at that time) of the RDI System International Audit in the Czech Republic to adopt the Long Term Principles of Evaluating the Research Institutions Results. These principles are the backbone of IPn Methodology Project that should provide the scientific community as well as the public administration with an instrument of evaluating research institutions and with the system of research and development in the Czech Republic respecting international standards and departmental differences, based on quantitative and qualitative criteria
Slides: idr-464_2 -  PDF
Video: idr-464_1 -  MP4
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Mezinárodní statistické standardy pro sektor vládních institucí
Valentová Půlpánová, Lenka ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Hindls, Richard (referee) ; Vebrová, Ludmila (referee)
The analysis of the government sector gained prominence after the World War II as the Keynesian theory attributed the government sector key importance in battling economic cycle and the post-war reconstruction and development involved state interventions on a large scale. In 1990s a strength-ened interest in the government sector was triggered by the need to coordinate fiscal policies and closely monitor fiscal health in the countries forming the Economic and Monetary Union. Finally, in the context of the recent global economic crisis, the government sector returned to the centre of the economic policy debate as fiscal policy was used as a main tool to fight the economic recession and subsequently sustainability of government finances became a pressing issue for many countries around the Globe. Increasing importance of the fiscal analysis and fiscal policymaking always generated and continues to generate demand for appropriate statistical data. The international statistical standards played a key role in meeting these requirements. This dissertation offers a comprehensive historical overview, a comparative analysis and evaluation of main internationally recognised statistical standards dealing with the government sector produced by the United Nations, the OECD, the European Communities (Eurostat), the IMF and the European Central Bank. It covers a period since the first international guidelines in late 1940s up to present. It analyses evolution of the statistical treatment of the government sector including its historical roots and gradual revisions and extensions to reflect changing needs and shifts in economic environment. The study compares individual standards with each other and across time and points out differences in basic definitions, concepts and classifications, the institutional coverage of the government sector, structure of government accounts and balancing items, integration of flow accounts with balance sheets and consolidation of transactions or stocks. The dissertation shows that the international statistical standards were successful in offering common statistical guidance, recommendations and best practices. The international organizations have proven to be well suited to deliver widely acknowledged standards. Their cooperation with national statistical agencies and engagement of the most competent experts in the field contributed to building credibility of these statistical systems, if properly applied. The comparative analysis also demonstrates a clear long-term effort of the international statistical community to enhance international harmonization. The application of the international statistical standards also improved quality and availability of government statistics as individual countries are in principle bound -- through their memberships in the international organizations -- to compile agreed data on the basis of a common methodology. This was in particular the case for EU countries for which provision of statistical data according to a given standard is legally binding, as the data are relevant for budgetary and surveillance procedures. As a special case, the history since early 1990s and current situation of statistics on the government sector in the Czech Republic is presented.
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Estimation of drug trade as a part of illegal economy
Vopravil, Jiří ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Seger, Jan (referee) ; Radimecký, Josef (referee)
Drug trade is a part of non-observed economy in the system of national accounts. Estimations of drug trade were made from demand side based on estimation of drug consumption. This needs estimations of drug users, which was possible to estimate from drug use prevalence in last year. Several surveys done in society were the data source. Other information from the surveys was information about frequency of drug use. Several research studies gave information about consumed drug quantity by one opportunity. Police and customs have a common database about drug seizures. The database is source for information about import and export of drugs, drug purities by production or import and by consumption or export. Police reports drug prices also. The physical indicators of the drug trade are recalculated by wholesale and retail prices into financial indicators, which are possible to record into system of national accounts.
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The use of mathematical and statistical modeling for the estimates of consumption of fixed capital and stocks of non-financial assets
Sixta, Jaroslav ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Fischer, Jakub (referee) ; Macek, Jan (referee)
The aim of this dissertation thesis is to compile a systematic methodical approach for fixed assets as a national methodology. It focuses on stocks, consumption of fixed capital and capital services. The thesis is divided into three parts and six chapters. Chapter one and chapter two are used as a general theoretical base for chapters 3 to 5. Chapter 3 is based on a standard approach to the perpetual inventory method (PIM) as it is used in the Czech Republic. Chapter 4 is devoted to capital services and to an alternative approach to PIM. It is not used in the Czech Republic until now. Estimates are an integral part of the chapter. Chapter 5 describes capital services for other non-market producers, both methodology and estimates are covered. The impact of the change of the so-called cost method used for the estimates of output of other non-market producers on gross domestic product is calculated. The change consists in the substitution of consumption of fixed capital by capital services. Chapter 6 summarizes and explains the consequences in terms of national accounts.
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Statisitcal models of the renewable energy market
Kozma, Petr ; Marek, Luboš (advisor) ; Coufal, Jan (referee) ; Hronová, Stanislava (referee) ; Janáček, Kamil (referee)
An efficient application and development of renewable energy sources is one of the most important contribution to the energetic balance of the human society. Anyhow, statistical model of the renewable energy market, which would fundamentally explain relevant economical rules related to these perspective energetic resources, is not clearly known up to now. Nevertheless, the relevant statistical data concerning application of solar energy (photovoltaic and thermo-solar heating) are available for the last twenty years. Based on the economic models, statistical data concerning sales of photovoltaic models and thermo-solar collectors sales have been analysed in this work. It has been shown that the model of constant elasticity predicts an exponential increase which will slow down when a certain level of annual cumulative sales was reached. The model of constant elasticity was found to be successful to interpret past sales data. In the approach of variable elasticity model the parameter of the elasticity has been modified as a function of variables such as market volume, price and time through the statistical evaluation. It enabled to calculate initial, saturation and competitive market conditions, as well. Whereas the constant elasticity demand model describes exponential growth of sales and installations, which was characteristic for the beginning of the application of these renewable resources of energy, the variable elasticity demand model describes a more realistic situation, where cumulative sales either increase or decrease and prices vary subsequently. Simple growth model of unlimited demand based on the growing sales is not realistic and could not be feasible in the long term. The market elasticity could be understood as a real economical parameter representing percentual market increase or decrease at a given time; in the variable demand elasticity model, the constant elasticity is replaced by a function of a market volume, price and time. In this case, we can estimate model parameters for the different market conditions: growth, saturation and decrease. The function representing the capital adequacy in the generalized market model has also been deliberated. Statistical models have been used to determine cumulative sales and market prices of photovoltaic modules and thermo-solar collectors. Moreover, model parameters have been used for the calculation of the realized photovoltaic and thermo solar projects' capital adequacy on the renewable energy market. By using model parameters, renewable energy market forecast up to 2020 has been estimated. We have used generalized market model to credibly estimate future renewable energy market until 2020; as well as extend model parameterization on other resources of renewable energy (water and wind, geothermal sources, biomass) and set prices of energy produced from these renewable sources. Potential energetic savings have been estimated for households (apartments and private houses), who can be relevant consumers of energy from renewable sources. We have performed statistical findings on randomly selected files, where we have reached a real energy consumption, to prove this. This research allowed us to perform a real estimate of a renewable energy contribution to the total energy balance. We have successfully proved that linearly growing capital adequacy function, with an annual growth between 2.5% and 3.0%, is reflecting the renewable energy market sufficiently and is fully in line with an average growth of the total energy consumption. Renewable energy share on the total energy balance will grow substantially to reach a level of 15% in 2015 on the world market and a level of 8% in the Czech Republic for the same period with a perspective to reach a level of 11% in 2020 respectively. Assuming this level of renewable energy on the total production will lead to a decrease of CO2 emissions by three million of tones in 2015 and by four million of tones in 2020. Final reach of this status quo is fully predicted by our statistical model for renewable energy market.
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Kvantitativní analýza interakcí fiskální politiky a reálné ekonomiky v České republice
Valenta, Vilém ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Slačálek, Jiří (referee)
After many decades, macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy have returned to the centre of the economic policy debate. Both automatic fiscal stabilizers and discretionary fiscal stimuli have been used to support aggregate demand during the recent global economic crisis with a subsequent need for large-scale fiscal consolidations. In this context, a proper assessment of the size of automatic fiscal stabilizers and fiscal multipliers represents a key input for fiscal policymaking. This dissertation provides a quantitative analysis of the interactions between fiscal policy and real economy in the Czech Republic. The impact of real economy developments on public finances is assessed based on the methods of the OECD, the European Commission and the ESCB for the identification of general government structural balances, i.e. balances adjusted for effects of the economic cycle and net of one-off and other temporary transactions. I find that the underlying fiscal position, as approximated by the government structural balance, was mostly below the level stabilising the debt-to-GDP ratio since mid-1990s. An indistinct improvement in the structural balance can be identified in the period 2004--2007, which was subsequently reversed by the adverse structural impact of the world economic crisis. At the same time, dynamics of unadjusted fiscal balance was largely determined by one-off transactions in the past. The effects of fiscal policy on real economy are analysed using the structural VAR approach. I find that an increase in government spending has a temporary positive effect on output that peaks after one to two years with a multiplier of around 0.6. Tax multiplier appears to be small and, in contrast to standard Keynesian assumptions, positive. Government spending is supportive to private consumption, contradicting the hypothesis of Ricardian equivalence, but it crowds out private investment in the short run. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis is complicated by rapidly changing economic environment in the period of the economic transition, relatively short available time series and a large number of one-off fiscal transactions.
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The analysis of the economic behavior of institutional sectors in non-financial corporations, households and government institutions
Mrkvová, Kristýna ; Hronová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Sixta, Jaroslav (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to picture the economic behavior of institutional sectors in non-financial corporations, households and government institutions during years 1995 -- 2007. The analysis focuses on selected institutional sectors from the Czech Republic and Slovakia; for a wilder comparison are also included two developed West-European countries -- France and Switzerland. It is based mainly on a data analysis of the national accounts and it is pointing out the problems connected to its outcomes. The thesis is divided into four parts. The first part is dealing with the history of national accounts, development of international standards in the selected countries and its comparison; it is also defining each of the institutional sectors and summarizes economic development of these countries. The second part examines the outcomes from the sectors of the non-financial corporations based on national accounting's regular accounts, and on proprietorial accounts. The third part is considering the households and analyzing specific indicators related to the households. The fourth part is related to the earnings, expenditures, and outcomes of the government operating. In the end the indicators of each institutional sector in some other European countries are also looked at.
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