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Sustainable use of natural resources in the Krkonoše Mountains National Park under climate change
Jakubínský, Jiří ; Cudlín, Ondřej ; Plch, Radek ; Purkyt, Jan ; Hellerová, S. ; Cudlín, Pavel
The ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities in the landscape can significantly influence the environmental values of the Krkonoše Mts. landscape and the resulting benefits for the humans. The paper presents selected partial results of the project, focused on the study of processes mentioned and mutual relations on the territory of the Krkonoše Mountains National Park. In particular, current problems and their causes were analysed in several key sectors related to the use of natural resources in the territory of the National Park – specifically agriculture, forestry, water resources, settlement structure and tourism. The topic is addressed using the DPSIR methodological framework whose individual components (socio-economic causes, pressures, state, profits and human responses) are quantified using a set of data available between 1991 and 2015. The development of the monitored indicators is expressed using an index of change, comparing the state at the beginning and the end of the given period. Based on the assessment of the development of individual DPSIR components, then it is possible to describe the trajectory of changes in the sub-sectors and to propose appropriate adaptation measures. The overall situation in water resources utilization can be described as rather positive, with a slightly improving trend. However, from the long-term point of view it will be necessary to realize measures to increasing water retention capacity of the landscape and maintain water consumption of big consumers, especially water for snowmaking of ski slopes.\n\n
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Prediction of changes in landscape and biodiversity development as important factors in maintaining the current state of forest ecosystems
Cudlín, Ondřej ; Pechanec, V. ; Purkyt, Jan ; Štěrbová, Lenka ; Holá, Š. ; Cienciala, E. ; Cudlín, Pavel
We used a combination of several analytical tools to analyse change and predict the land use, carbon storage and biodiversity assessment in the cultural landscape. First, the GIS layer, consisted of Habitat mapping (NCA CR 2014) for 138 natural and close to nature habitats and Corine LC for 54 more anthropically influenced habitats, was created. The Land Change Modeler (scenario type - business as usual, pixel resolution 500 m) was used to predict the development of land cover on the basis of data comparison in several historical periods (Corine LC from 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012). We also did prediction of carbon storage under climate change in model InVEST 3.0 – carbon. Changes in carbon storage were calculated from four carbon pools: above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, necromass and soil organic carbon. To assess and predict the changes in biodiversity in the \nforest-agriculture landscape we used the model GLOBIO 3, which works with five basic driving forces for biodiversity loss: land use, infrastructure, fragmentation of territory, atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change. Last used model Marxan enables us to select up to now unprotected areas with a high degree of biodiversity and naturalness of habitats for environmentally friendly agriculture and forestry management.\n
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Forest regeneration within the treeline ecotone in the Giant Mountains under climate change
Cudlín, Ondřej ; Chumanová-Vávrová, Eva ; Edwards-Jonášová, Magda ; Heřman, Michal ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Cudlín, Pavel
Natural regeneration of mountain spruce forests began in the Giant Mountains 25 years ago after a reduction\nof severe and long-enduring air pollution. This process has been influenced by climatic change.\nThe aim of our contribution was to present background data for the potential elevational shift of spruce\nregeneration under conditions of climate change. These upslope shifts may also depend on constraints\nsuch as climate extremes, unfavourable soil conditions, absence of ectomycorrhizal symbionts, and lack of\nmicrosites suitable for seedlings. Since 2014, we have studied the main driving factors affecting Norway\nspruce regeneration, and in particular soil conditions, ectomycorrhizal symbionts, ground vegetation cover,\nand forest health, in six transects across the treeline ecotone located on a NW-to-NE transect through\nthe Giant Mountains. Microclimatic measurements showed that the mean difference in growing season\ntemperature between the montane spruce forests and forests at the treeline was −0.54°C. The model\nHADGEM2 predicted that in 20 years the temperature at the treeline will be similar to the current one at\nmontane elevations. The difference in prevailing soil types between the montane spruce forests and forests\nat the current treeline (i.e. podzol vs. ranker type) could be an important factor limiting success of the\nupslope spreading of spruce. Furthermore, areas covered by microsites favourable for natural spruce regeneration,\nespecially spruce litter patches, decaying wood, mosses, and Avenella flexuosa stands, were\nshown to decrease with increasing elevation. It is likely that spruce will move upslope in response to climate\nchange, but the process is likely to be slow or even blocked for some periods, especially by unfavourable\nsoil conditions and climatic extremes.
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