| |
|
Development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic between 2006-2016
Ditrichová, Gabriela ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Klement, Josef (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on the development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic in the decade between 2006 and 2016. A strong economic growth between 2006 and 2007, which had positive effects in the mortgage loan market, was followed by a deep slump in the form of global financial crisis unleashed by speculations in the real estate market in the U.S. The main aim of the work is based on the development of mortgage interest rates and the significant factors that affect their amount - to verify or disprove the hypothesis that interest rates respond to changes of these factors. The results confirm the hypothesis only in certain areas. The influence of changes of interest rates has been proven in the case of inflation and discount rates by usage of the econometric model. Factors that have not shown a significant direct influence of interest rates may have an indirect influence on their change.
|
|
Valuation of company Lesní společnost Broumov Holding, a. s.
Sichrovský, Chananel ; Štamfestová, Petra (advisor) ; Toušek, Jan (referee)
The aim of this master thesis is to estimate the value of the company Lesní společnost Broumov Holding, a. s. as of the valuation date 01/01/2016. The thesis consists of two main parts, theoretically-methodological and related practical part. For accomplishing the objective, the strategical and financial analysis were made, also the main generators of the value were identified and scheduled and the financial plan was composed. The valuation itself was realized by three different methods that were afterwards calculated together which resulted into final estimation of the company's value, that reaches 147 024 thousand Czech crowns. The thesis is usable as a full overview of the company's situation and may be also helpful to the owners as a base for price negotiations, in case of potential investor's interest in buying it.
|
|
The American Foreign Policy with the Middle East : from the earliest days to the Obama’s mandate
Petraud, Jean-Félix ; Eichler, Jan (advisor) ; Dubský, Zbyněk (referee)
The following dissertation is an attempt of analysis and understanding of the foreign policy of the United States in the Middle East region and its evolution through time. Considering the fact that the Middle East region is or at least used to be a vital region for the United States national interests, the dissertation presents an exhaustive list of major events that have been major shifts in the US foreign policy in the region. The more or less chronological timeline allows the reader to have a better understanding of the evolution of the US foreign policy. The result of the dissertation is the identification of different patterns of foreign policy and to put the spot on the reasons of the changes of these patterns. Nevertheless, the history of the Middle East region and the incredible number of major events through the 2Oth century and the early 21st century make impossible to deal with all of them. Moreover, analysis and comments are based on academic research, but the dissertation remains subjective and may lead to discussions and debates.
|
|
Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
|
|
Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
|
|
Awareness of women about nutrition problems such as breast cancer prevention
STAŇKOVÁ, Denisa
This thesis focuses on the awareness of women of the nutrition issue as the prevention of breast cancer. The aim of this thesis is to find out whether the women have enough information about nutrition and life style as the prevention of breast carcinoma, where they look for information, if they are interested in this issue and whether they consume food that could work as the prevention. Another goal is to detect possible differences in the attitude to the prevention between women without the potential risk and women with the increased risk, i.e. women over 45. Research questions were determined as follows: "What is the knowledge of women about the issues of nutrition as the prevention of breast cancer?", "What is the proportion of the food that has preventive effect on the rise of breast carcinoma and, on the contrary, the food that supports the tumour growth in the eating habits of women?", "Where do women get information on this issue?", "What is the difference in awareness and consumption of food between women without the potential risk and women with the increased risk, i.e. over 45. The thesis is divided into two parts, a theoretical and a practical one. In the theoretical part I focus on the breast anatomy, basic information on breast cancer and risk factors that are divided into influenceble ones and non-influenceble ones. In the most extensive part of my thesis focuses on the influenceble factors, that is nutrition and life style. I focus especially on nutriments, food and other life style factors that are most connected with breast cancer and have antitumour effects or, conversely, support the tumour growth. The practical part was made by means of a questionnaire which I placed on the Internet and handed out in the waiting room at the general practitioner. The questionnaire was anonymous with 34 questions of a closed and semi-enclosed type. Questions concerned nutrition and life style in relation to the risk of breast cancer and were devised to answer previously defined research questions. The questionnaire survey took place in January and February 2013. I acquired 105 filled in questionnaires from which I randomly chose 86 to obtain two numerously equal groups of women without the potential risk and with the increased risk, i.e. over 45. The result of the research part is that women do not have much information on the life style in connection with the breast cancer. Some respondents, while selecting food with preventive effect, were only guessing and often also marked food which was not related to the breast carcinoma at all. About one third of the respondents even believe that nutrition and other factors are not related to this disease at all. One third of the respondents also stated that they had no interest in learning more information on this issue. Women that have some information usually get it from the magazines and from the Internet. In terms of eating habits, the food of most respondents does not reach the needed quantity to have preventive effects. On the other hand, the food and drinks that support tumour growth do not occur on the menu of the respondents very often. While comparing answers of the women younger 45 and the older group of respondents, it was found out that the younger respondents showed greater unawareness of this issue. No significant differences were recorded in other questions. The results of the survey are graphically processed and evaluated in the final part of this thesis. I suppose this thesis is the contribution to clarifying the current situation of this issue. I believe that the topic of my thesis is up-to-date and that I managed to summarize the most significant information regarding this topic and fulfil the aims I set down. I would be very glad if my work led to the contemplation of this issue and subsequently to a more extensive propagation of the breast cancer prevention.
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - November 2016
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the relationship between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate over the last ten years. The results show that the inverse relationship between the Brent price and the nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar still applies, helping dampen fluctuations in the dollar price of oil in “non-dollar” economies.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
Assesment of Ethiopian Monetary Policy: The Prospect of Inflation Targeting Using Monetary Var
Jehar, Mustofa Seid ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Šolc, Jan (referee)
This paper tries to assess the Ethiopian monetary policy, in order to investigate the prospect of inflation targeting. The paper starts by reviewing the literature on the evolution of Ethiopian monetary policy and Macroeconomy. This is followed, by the requirements of adopting inflation targeting and the practical experience of inflation targeting countries; finally the paper focuses on the requirement to have a stable and persistent relationship between the policy instrument and price level. Vector auto regression model with some monetary policy instrument and macroeconomic variables was used. To explore different transmission mechanism i have analyzed the Granger causality, impulse response, and Variance decomposition. Result showed that, there is a weak relationship among prices, interest rate and exchange rate channel. The paper, therefore, recommended it is not the right time to adopt the full-fledged inflation targeting. Rather, better try to adopt inflation targeting as an implicit policy.
|
guest ::
