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Zone of the grey information
Pejšová, Petra
To, co se nezveřejní, ani Google o tom neví. Výzkumné zprávy, vysokoškolské práce, příspěvky z konferencí a další odborné materiály jsou sice vydávány, ale dostane se k nim pouze úzká skupina uživatelů. Toto se snažíme změnit. Hledejte na www.nusl.cz .
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Expected development of Business Intelligence applications in the coming years
Aschmann, Jakub ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Fortinová, Jana (referee)
This thesis focuses on the development of Business Intelligence applications. The main area is the potential development in the coming years, history of business intelligence and individual components. To acquire the necessary knowledge, I studied educational materials and electronic publications. In Chapter 3 I focus on the definition of BI, in the following chapter I analyse individual components and the last chapter is dedicated to the development in the future. This thesis will provide comprehensive knowledge and trends in business intelligence to readers who are interested in this area and are looking for complex information.
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Non-invasive methods for sex and steroid homones determination in gibbons of the genus Nomascus
Bolechová, Petra ; Bartoš, Luděk (advisor) ; Pavel, Pavel (referee)
The gibbon primates of the family Nomascus are classified as critically endangered species, and, to date, basic understanding and information about their biology is missing. With regard to the status of these animals in the wild and captive populations in zoos, being familiar with their reproduction, may improve captive breeding programs. Data collection in this study was to be carried out by the practical use of non-invasive methods (polymerase chain reaction for DNA extraction and enzyme immunoassays), using faecal samples for analysis. The first method, polymerase chain reaction, was used for sex determination in juveniles, because of their coat colour and visual similarity of secondary sex characteristic in both sexes; it is not possible to determinate sex without handling the animal. Another main purpose of this study is to try and answer the hypothesis regarding the ovarian cycle of females, factors influencing their hormone concentration and also the onset of sexual maturity in females and the timing of their fur colour change. Hypotheses were checked by monitoring the concentration of progesterone and oestrogen faecal metabolites and by evaluation of the composition of breeding groups of gibbons with the ZOO influence. During a four year period (from 2010 till 2014), there were a total of 51 animals analysed from 16 different zoos with a faecal sample count totalling 1618 samples. The results confirmed the use of noninvasive methods for sex determination, and thus ensuring the maximum welfare standards. Endocrinological analysis confirmed the hypothesis of the influence of the environment (ZOO) to the hormone concentrations and female´s pregnancy effect in conjunction with her age on the final results of the male - father hormone concentrations. The initial information in this study is the confirmation of the onset of ovarian cycle in young females without connection to their fur colour change and a significant factor of a mother´s impact and her territoriality. This study is the first to present a long term monitoring of ovarian cycles in females and hormone concentrations of other individuals, both male and female, and from various age groups. The results allow us to understand the possible impact of zoo environments on the reproductive status of these gibbons and contribute to the general improvement of breeding management.
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Design and implementation of e-learning in the area of interest
Marešová, Nikola ; Husa, Jiří (advisor) ; Marek, Marek (referee)
The bachelor's thesis entitled "Design and implementation of e-learning in the area of interest" deals with buying used cars. The essential part of this work is a creation of e-learning course for buyers and other people interested in this area which aims to improve their knowledge. The participants will get an overview of the most common situations and problems they can meet when buying a used car. The theoretical part presents an overview of the topics of the issue of purchase of used cars. It may serve as a theoretical guidance to the e-course, it brings its content. The topics are based on the analysis of information from printed and electronic sources, supplemented by experiences of the author and experts in the field. The practical part deals with the creation of an e-learning course. It contains an analysis of the needs of buyers, the reasons for the creation of the course and the requirements of it, its objectives, a description of the used authoring tool eXe and graphic creation process from the creation of the course after its publication in steps. All this is complemented by the feedback from six volunteers who have expressed an interest in testing the course and then doing a review. Before the creation of the course it was necessary to analyze the situation and find out why such a course is needed. The acquired knowledge was then processed in the course by the synthesis method. For the evaluation method it was used a short personal interview where the author examined satisfaction with the course, its possible shortcomings and suggestions for improvements or enhancements.
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Intraday Dynamics of Euro Area Sovereign Credit Risk Contagion
Komárek, Luboš ; Ters, Kristyna ; Urban, Jörg
We examine the role of the CDS and bond markets during and before the recent euro area sovereign debt crisis as transmission channels for credit risk contagion between sovereign entities. We analyse an intraday dataset for GIIPS countries as well as Germany, France and central European countries. Our findings suggest that, prior to the crisis, the CDS and bond markets were similarly important in the transmission of financial shock contagion, but that the importance of the bond market waned during the crisis. We find flight-to-safety effects during the crisis in the German bond market that are not present in the pre-crisis sample. Our estimated sovereign risk contagion was greater during the crisis, with an average timeline of one to two hours in GIIPS countries. By using an exogenous macroeconomic news shock, we can show that, during the crisis period, increased credit risk was not related to economic fundamentals. Further, we find that central European countries were not affected by sovereign credit risk contagion, independent of their debt level and currency.
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Improving labour productivity: How to determine standard time for performing specific tasks in the selected organization
BARTOŠKOVÁ, Martina
This bachelor thesis focuses on the standard time needed for specific tasks in the selected organization, as well as on the appropriate methods for its determination. The findings serve as a basis for the formulation of measures which should be taken to improve labour productivity. The methods include the standardization of tasks, time study and computer-based data analysis (Microsoft Excel spreadsheets). The theoretical part of the paper discusses the nature of job production, the methods appropriate for the calculation of standard production time and the ways to ensure efficient work and time management in the given factory. Apart from these, a complete description (history, facility layout, pre-production and production stages, machines and materials) of the selected organization is provided to serve as a background for the case study presented in the practical part. This includes the list of production tasks, production time tables and time standards along with materials necessary to facilitate production. The aim of the thesis is to help the organization improve its labour productivity and provide it with the algorithm which can be used to determine production time for similar orders.
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Distribution management in a large company (warehouse)
MICHALOVÁ, Jana
Distribution management in a large company. This Master´s Thesis examines the company Fruko-Schulz, s. r. o. This company has been making spirits. The goal is to map out the information and material flows toward the warehouse and from the warehouse. Subsequently, to analyze the current state of the company. Based on the information propose measures for improvement. In own work is described in detail and enterprise activities in a company. After ideas are designed to change. These proposals relate to distribution to the end customer through the gastronomical exhibitions and fairs. Other proposals are aimed at end users in the Russian market. Ideas for packaging or new products are designed, but is backed that do not make sense. Company Fruko-Schulz, s. r. o. sas a long tradition and reputation. But that's not enough, the competition is great and it isalso at a high level. The idea to focus on the Russian market is very good and there is great potential.
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The agricultural drought monitoring and its users and correspondents
Bartošová, Lenka ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Žalud, Z.
Drought monitoring in the Czech Republic is a key element in climate monitoring. The aim of this article is to describe the possible participation of agronomists, foresters and fruiterers in drought monitoring within the Integrated Drought Monitoring System. This system monitor drought occurence weekly on the base of various information (data from model SoiClim or outputs from satellite Aqua and Terra). One of the main pillar of the monitor is also information about drought impact on yields in the cooperation with especially farmers. Their expert assessment brings insight into actual situation in agricultural landscape in weekly time step. All results are free to download in www.intersucho.cz.
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