| |
|
Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
|
|
Support for Unemployed People Aged Under 30 Years at Entry to the Labor Market
ŠABARTOVÁ, Alžběta
The Bachelor Thesis deals with the problems of unemployment benefits for people at the age up to 30 when entering the employment market. Unemployment is currently one of the serious problems in the world. The reduction in the number of unemployed people is one of the political priorities. The meaning of work as a job is taking an irreplaceable position for the life within our culture. Job loss has a considerable influence on social as well as personal life of an individual. The age is playing a significant role when seeking a job. Especially the time connected with the beginning of the career. School leavers who apply for their first job are concerned. They have no working experience, no practice, and they have so far had no possibility to acquire the basic work habits. A disharmony between zero experience and excessive earnings demands belongs to other root causes of the lack of interest in giving work opportunity to school leavers. Employment Office plays an irreplaceable role for the mediation of job and the consultancy. To solve unemployment within each target group, active and passive labour policies are available. The situation of the specific target group is stimulated especially through single programs and projects. The theoretical part pays attention to the definition and objectification of the unemployment-related terms and the analysis of labour market in Ceske Budejovice. Observations of a number of authors who are dealing with these problems and the related issues are summarized herein. The empirical part is formed by observations from own investigation. Two job-related targets have been set. The first target is to analyse the ideas the young people aged up to thirty, living in the district of Ceske Budejovice, have of their employment. The other target is to analyse the employers´ ideas of giving work to school leavers and young people. In order to fulfil the above targets, two investigative questions have been put: 1: Young peoples´ ideas of earning possibilities are unrealistic. 2: Employers find the European Social Fund helpful in giving work to young people. For the purpose of answering the investigative questions a qualitative research method, namely a case study the study of a few cases was selected. Interviewing was chosen as the most suitable method of data gathering. Initially, ten participants aged up to thirty were interviewed. At the time of interviewing, all of the participants were registered at the Employment Office in Ceske Budejovice and were taking part in a retraining scheme arranged by the Employment Office. When talking with young people I found that their gross commencing salary is expected to amount to approx. 16 200 CZK. The other selective group comprised five employers in Ceske Budejovice. It emerged from the interviews that one of the companies does not utilize the programs and projects announced by the European Social Fund at all. Two of the companies complain about excessive administration. One of the employers must always carefully consider its ability to satisfy the involvement conditions. Some negative feelings also appeared about the frequent changing the blank forms, a low number of announced projects for a particular business branch. The programs being related to deepening knowledge and staff training were most appreciated. The results of the Thesis will give the Employment Office a feedback on the utilization of the European Social Fund by employers and will help in adjusting the conditions for further projects being prepared.
|
|
Business plan - establishment of a coffee bar
Bubeníčková, Petra ; Tyll, Ladislav (advisor) ; Svoboda, Jan (referee)
The aim of this Bachelor thesis is to draw up a business plan for the establishment of a venture, more specifically a coffee bar in Prague. The subject of the paper is the description of the business and an estimate of the financial statements in order to test the viability of the project. The thesis is divided into a theoretical and a practical part. The former defines the terms of the issue and provides an outline of the general procedures and strategies for setting up a business. It describes the basic points and parts of a standard business plan. The latter is focused on a specific undertaking and defines the specific steps for establishing an individual business plan.
|
|
Possibilities of Big Data use for Competitive Intelligence
Verníček, Marek ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Šperková, Lucie (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the use of Big Data for the methods and procedures of Competitive Intelligence. Among the goals of the work is a toolkit for small and large businesses which is supposed to support their work with the whole process of Big Data work. Another goal is to design an effective solution of processing Big Data to gain a competitive advantage in business. The theoretical part of the work processes available scientific literature in the Czech Republic and abroad as well as describes the current state of Competitive Intelligence, and Big Data as one of its possible sources. Subsequently, the work deals with the characteristics of Big Data, the differences from working with common data, the need for a thorough preparation and Big Data applicability for the methods of Competitive Intelligence. The practical part is focused on analysis of Big Data tools available in the market with regard to the whole process from data collection to the analysis report preparation and integration of the entire solution into an automated state. The outcome of this part is the Big Data software toolkit for small and large businesses based on their budget. The final part of the work is devoted to the classification of the most promising business areas, which can benefit from the use of Big Data the most in order to gain competitive advantages and proposes the most effective solution of working with Big Data. Among other benefits of this work are expansion of the range of resources for Competitive Intelligence and in-depth analysis of possibilities of Big Data usage, designed to help professionals make use of this hitherto untapped potential to improve market position, gain new customers and strengthen the existing user base.
|
|
Situation of disadvantaged groups in the Zlin region
Zavadilová, Petra ; Prášilová, Marie (advisor)
The thesis deals with the position of disadvantaged groups of the population in the Zlín region. In the theoretical part contains the basic concepts related to physically disadvantaged groups of the population, the employment of these people, care about these groups, the support and contributions not only to the employer.The empirical part is focused on the statistical analysis of the unemployed population groups on the labour market and on the analysis of a survey conducted in order to verify the validity of assumptions, including an analysis of the responses to individual questions. At the conclusion of the thesis are summarized and evaluated the results of the analysis and also proposed measures for improving the position of disadvantaged groups of the population In the Zlín region.
|
|
Employment in a state-funded institution
Brožová, Milena ; Světlíková, Daniela (advisor) ; Pikola, Pavel (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on employment in a state-funded institution. It is divided into a theoretical and an empirical part.
The theoretical part deals with analysis of legal regulations and their interpretation. The method of description is used in this part. The focus in legal regulations is on the problems of a state-funded institution, namely on the legal position and functioning and on management. The focus is also on labour relations, from the general definition to the conclusion of employment for a fixed period of time. The analysis of legal regulations is complemented with interpretations of authors of specialized publications.
Direct and indirect quotations are used in the text and are marked with footnotes.
The empirical part of this thesis deals with the application of legal regulations in a particular state-funded institution. The order of researched areas is in accordance with the theoretical part. The method of comparison and study of documents and internal regulations are used for analysing the data.
The primary research has shown that the legal regulations are applied without difficulty. The discovered discrepancy between the used terminology and the terminology in the Civil code does not invalidate legal documents and thus there is no need to mark it as a defect which needs to be fixed. Suggestions for discussion have been made, for which measures were proposed in the concluding part. The suggestions relate to arrangement of employment for a fixed period of time and its change to permanent contract and to allowance from the founder as a financial mean of a state-funded institution.
|
|
Automatic system for gauge blocks calibration optimized for legal length metrology
Buchta, Zdeněk ; Šarbort, Martin ; Čížek, Martin ; Hucl, Václav ; Řeřucha, Šimon ; Pikálek, Tomáš ; Dvořáčková, Š. ; Dvořáček, F. ; Kůr, J. ; Konečný, P. ; Lazar, Josef ; Číp, Ondřej
This paper presents a contactless system for automatic and contactless gauge blocks calibration based on combination of laser interferometry and low-coherence interferometry. In the presented system, the contactless measurement of the absolute gauge block length is done as a single-step operation without any change in optical setup during the measurement. The optical setup is combined with compact gauge block changer with capacity 126 gauge blocks, which makes the resulting system fully automatic. \nThe paper also presents in detail a set of optimization steps which have been done in order to transform the original experimental setup into the automatic system which meets legal length metrology requirements. To prove the measurement traceability, we conducted a set of gauge block length measurement comparing data from the optimized system and the established reference system and TESA–UPC operated in Czech Metrology Institute laboratory.
|
|
Realization of farm with a focus on poultry
Hromjak, Milan ; Zita, Lukáš (advisor) ; Kovářová, Kateřina (referee)
This thesis deals with the origin of a family farm. By creating a business plan and issues connected with it, its priority is an organic poultry farm, which will produce poultry meat and eggs. Another service beyond the farm production will be creating conditions for a developing branch, which is agro-tourism and other services related to the operation of the farm, so that it leads to the economic development and profit.
The farm will arise by rebuilding of an old house with a large barn and adjacent 10ha of lands inherited from grandparents. There will be built a multi-purpose building called the poultry farm from which the poultry will have access to pasture. The property includes another 1 ha of forest from which the wood will be used as a building material and firewood.
The work is divided into two parts: theoretical and practical. The theoretical part especially focuses on explaining the concepts that are important to understand the business plan.
Then there is the legislation concerning the organic farming, a tangle of laws, public notices and regulations that must be followed in order to meet the conditions for the organic farming. An integral motivational service of the country and the European Union for farmers and not only for those who are environmentally-managing farmers, is support and grants for the years 2014 - 2020. A very important step not only for the starting farmers is a market analysis in the given branch, as well as a SWOT analysis that will show us the positive and negative aspects of the business. The conclusion of this section deals not only with the concept of agro-tourism, but also with its market position as well and possibilities of its use and further development.
In the practical part there is a description of a business plan and individual periods of the project including financing. Finances will flow from own and foreign capital, or the possibility to apply for support through non-refundable grants. The establishment of the farm will have an impact on the labor market, as there will be 5 newly created jobs and the community will fit into the wider public awareness thanks to the activities that the farm will develop for the purpose of product promotion and further development. Furthermore, there are itemized individual items that lead to the final evaluation of the effectiveness of the business plan. By processing the theoretical and practical part of the thesis the requirement of the thesis objective is met - to design a prosperous family farm focused on poultry keeping with a hypothesis if it is currently possible to be competitive while importing poultry meat and eggs from abroad. It can be concluded that the business plan is viable.
|
|
Ethics in advertising
Laurinová, Iveta ; Huml, Jan (advisor)
This bachelor thesis deals with the ethical aspect of advertising. The aim of the thesis is to find out how are people affected by advertisement and what is their attitude towards unethical advertising. The work is divided into a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part focuses on the basic concepts related to advertising and ethics, the types of media which are used and it also includes the concept of self-regulation advertising. The practical part processes questionnaire survey and the analysis is made in order to achieve the aim of the thesis.
|
guest ::
