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Clustering and regression analysis of micro panel data
Sobíšek, Lukáš ; Pecáková, Iva (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee) ; Brabec, Marek (referee)
The main purpose of panel studies is to analyze changes in values of studied variables over time. In micro panel research, a large number of elements are periodically observed within the relatively short time period of just a few years. Moreover, the number of repeated measurements is small. This dissertation deals with contemporary approaches to the regression and the clustering analysis of micro panel data. One of the approaches to the micro panel analysis is to use multivariate statistical models originally designed for crosssectional data and modify them in order to take into account the within-subject correlation. The thesis summarizes available tools for the regression analysis of micro panel data. The known and currently used linear mixed effects models for a normally distributed dependent variable are recapitulated. Besides that, new approaches for analysis of a response variable with other than normal distribution are presented. These approaches include the generalized marginal linear model, the generalized linear mixed effects model and the Bayesian modelling approach. In addition to describing the aforementioned models, the paper also includes a brief overview of their implementation in the R software. The difficulty with the regression models adjusted for micro panel data is the ambiguity of their parameters estimation. This thesis proposes a way to improve the estimations through the cluster analysis. For this reason, the thesis also contains a description of methods of the cluster analysis of micro panel data. Because supply of the methods is limited, the main goal of this paper is to devise its own two-step approach for clustering micro panel data. In the first step, the panel data are transformed into a static form using a set of proposed characteristics of dynamics. These characteristics represent different features of time course of the observed variables. In the second step, the elements are clustered by conventional spatial clustering techniques (agglomerative clustering and the C-means partitioning). The clustering is based on a dissimilarity matrix of the values of clustering variables calculated in the first step. Another goal of this paper is to find out whether the suggested procedure leads to an improvement in quality of the regression models for this type of data. By means of a simulation study, the procedure drafted herein is compared to the procedure applied in the kml package of the R software, as well as to the clustering characteristics proposed by Urso (2004). The simulation study demonstrated better results of the proposed combination of clustering variables as compared to the other combinations currently used. A corresponding script written in the R-language represents another benefit of this paper. It is available on the attached CD and it can be used for analyses of readers own micro panel data.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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INFLUENCE OF LASER CUTTING AND PUNCHING ON MAGNETIC PROPERTIES\nOF ELECTRICAL STEEL M470-50A
Bulín, Tomáš ; Švábenská, Eva ; Hapla, Miroslav ; Ondrůšek, Č. ; Schneeweiss, Oldřich
Electrical steel M470-50A belongs to the most often used materials in electrical machines. Due to this fact, it is desirable to know the magnetic parameters after processing raw sheets into the required shape. Basic parameters of mechanical, electrical, and magnetic properties of the sheets are usually obtained from the producer but the magnetic properties are changing in dependence on additional machining processes. The aim of this study is to describe changes in parameters of magnetic behavior after punching, laser and spark cutting of the original sheets. The basic information of structure was obtained by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The magnetic parameters were acquired from the measuring of magnetic hysteresis loops in dependence on saturation fields and frequencies. The results are discussed from the point of view of applied\ncutting technology with the aim to obtain the best magnetic parameters and consequently a higher efficiency of the final product. Results can be used as input parameters in simulation of the electrical machine.
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ELECTRON BEAM REMELTING OF PLASMA SPRAYED ALUMINA COATINGS
Matějíček, Jiří ; Veverka, J. ; Čížek, J. ; Kouřil, J.
Plasma sprayed alumina coatings find numerous applications in various fields, where they enhance the properties of the base material. Examples include thermal barriers, wear resistance, electrical insulation, and diffusion and corrosion barriers. A typical structure of plasma sprayed coatings, containing a multitude of voids and imperfectly bonded interfaces, gives them unique properties - particularly low thermal conductivity, high strain tolerance, etc. However, for certain applications such as permeation barriers or wear resistance, these voids may be detrimental.\nThis paper reports on the first experiments with remelting of plasma sprayed alumina coatings by electron beam technology, with the purpose of densifying the coatings and thereby eliminating the voids. Throughout the study, several parameters of the e-beam device were varied - beam current, traverse velocity and number of passes. The treated coatings were observed by light and electron microscopy and the thickness, structure and surface morphology of the remelted layer were determined and correlated with the process parameters. Based on the first series of experiments, the e-beam settings leading to dense and smooth remelted layer of sufficient thickness were obtained. In this layer, a change of phase composition and a marked increase in hardness were observed.\n
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Plasma spraying from liquids: plasma liquid interaction and coating build up
Tesař, Tomáš ; Mušálek, Radek ; Medřický, Jan ; Lukáč, František
Plasma spraying from liquid feedstocks is a rapidly developing field of thermal spraying since the coatings prepared from liquids exhibit some unique features, such as high hardness, thermal shock resistance or low thermal and electric conductivity. The key factor influencing the final coating character and properties is the input material which may be in the form of a suspension or a solution. Parameters of the selected suspension (solids concentration, viscosity, surface tension, chemical composition, etc.) or solution (concentration, etc.) determine its interaction with the plasma jet which strongly influences the coating buildup. This proceeding introduces the problematics of the interaction between the liquid feedstock material with the plasma jet and presents the way of evaluation of the coating buildup.
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Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
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Study of dielectrical properties of organic material thin films
Pospíšil, Jan ; Boušek, Jaroslav (referee) ; Mikula, Milan (referee) ; Zmeškal, Oldřich (advisor)
The dissertation is focused on the study of electric and especially dielectric properties of thin film organic materials with their huge potential for optoelectronics and other industrial sectors. The theoretical part deals with the use of organic materials in organic photovoltaic cells, the methods of deposition techniques and characterization. The theoretical knowledge of the dielectric spectroscopy, including methods for determining the physical properties and evaluation of experimental data are also described. The experimental part is devoted to the study of small molecule organic solar cells with bulk heterojunction composed of electron donor molecule of DPP(TBFu)2 and electron acceptor fullerene derivatives, such as PC60BM, PC70BM and TC60BM. The experimental part is divided into two main parts. The first part deals with the study of processes occurring at the interface between the active layer and the contact; the second part is focused on transport processes inside the structure of photovoltaic cells and also contains a study of perovskite solar cells.
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Noise, Transport and Structural Properties of High Energy Radiation Detectors Based on CdTe
Šik, Ondřej ; Lazar, Josef (referee) ; Navrátil, Vladislav (referee) ; Grmela, Lubomír (advisor)
Poptávka ze strany vesmírného výzkumu, zdravotnictví a bezpečnostního průmyslu způsobila v posledních letech zvýšený zájem o vývoj materiálů pro detekci a zobrazování vysokoenergetického záření. CdTe a jeho slitina CdZnTe. jsou polovodiče umožnují detekci záření o energiích v rozsahu 10 keV až 500 keV. Šířka zakázaného pásma u CdTe / CdZnTe je 1.46 -1.6 eV, což umožňuje produkci krystalů o vysoké rezistivitě (10^10-10^11 cm), která je dostačující pro použití CdTe / CdZnTe při pokojové teplotě. V mé práci byly zkoumány detektory CdTe/CdZnTe v různých stádiích jejich poruchovosti. Byly použity velmi kvalitní spektroskopické detektory, materiál s nižší rezistivitou a výraznou polarizací, detektory s asymetrií elektrických parametrů kontaktů a teplotně degenerované vzorky. Z výsledků analýzy nízkofrekvenčního šumu je patrný obecný závěr, že zvýšená koncentrace defektů způsobí změnu povahy původně monotónního spektra typu 1/f na spektrum s výrazným vlivem generačně-rekombinačních procesů. Další výrazná vlastnost degenerovaných detektorů a detektorů nižší kvality je nárůst spektrální hustoty šumu typu 1/f se vzrůstajícím napájecím napětí se směrnicí výrazně vyšší než 2. Strukturální a chemické analýzy poukázaly, že teplotní generace detektorů způsobuje difuzi kovu použitého při kontaktování a stopových prvků hlouběji do objemu krystalu. Část mé práce je věnována modifikaci povrchu svazkem argonových iontů a jejímu vlivu na chemické složení a morfologii povrchu.
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Response of selected rivers of the Bohemian Massif to lithological and structural conditions
Flašar, Jan ; Nývlt, Daniel (advisor) ; Kalvoda, Jan (referee)
Three groups of streams were selected in the area of the Bohemian Massif: the Berounka river with its source streams; the Vltava river with its tributaries the Malše and the Lužnice; the Labe river with its tributaries the Cidlina, the Bystřice and the Javorka. The lithological and tectonical influences to several parameters of the streams were studied. These parameters include: stream gradient, orientation of the stream and sinuosity of the stream. Data were obtained from digital elevation models, aerial photographs, topographical and geological maps. The longitudinal profiles of the streams (in the combination with geological cross-sections), the SL indexes and the gradient/sinuosity graphs were created on the basis of the obtained data. These tools were used for evaluation of the influence of lithology and the tectonics to the streams. The evolution of the streams and the stream-groups was evaluated and compared as well. A strong influence of lithology on the stream gradient was found on most of the analysed streams. The tectonic situation, on the contrary, had strong influence on the orientation of the streams, especially in the resistant rocks. Also, there were selected areas, where was a higher probability of quaternary vertical movements influencing the streams (mountainous areas of the Novohradské...
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