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Financial and economic crisis and its impact on the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic
STODOLOVSKÁ, Zuzana
My thesis concerns on the unemployment connected with world financial and economic crisis and its impact on the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic. Theoretical part explains what has caused the beginning of the financial crisis, following by the description of unemployment topic, mainly its consequences within economic and social field. Practical part involves questionnaire survey done among employees, and it is focused to their point of view and attitudes to the crisis, mainly in relation to their work. This topic is completed with the description of unemployment development based on public statistic data. I conclude my thesis with an overview of EU arrangements that should contribute to solve the unemployment.
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Financial Crisis In View Of Czech Public - June 2009
Červenka, Jan
According to June survey 54 % of Czechs are concerned with the situation regarding present world financial crisis, 45 % do not care about it. 82 % expect negative impact of crisis to economic development in the Czech Republic, 63 % of Czechs are convinced that the financial crisis will affect their personal situation or the situation of their households.
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Public Opinion on Financial Crisis
Tabery, Paulína
According to January regular survey, 58 % of Czechs are convinced the financial crisis will affect their personal situation or the situation of their households, 29 % have opposite expectations. Two thirds (67%) of population are interested in course of events connected with the financial crisis and 85 % expect negative impact of crisis to economic development of the Czech Republic. One quarter of population (26%) thinks, the response of Czech government to the crisis is good, 45 % consider it as bad, and 29 % do not know.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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The impact of the recession on real estate market
JIRKA, Marek
The thesis is divided thematically into two parts. The first part describes the impact of the financial crisis on the Czech real estate market, the effects of bursting financial bubbles and then a recovery in demand in the property market. It also deals with the mortgage market, which has one of the biggest influences on the real estate market. The second, proper part, describes the situation of housing sales development project that begins before the crisis, and outlines how market situation worsened during the crisis and how the developer had to reduce the price of real estate and used other enticements to motivate the demand for purchase.
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Efficiency of regulation models in financial markets in environment of monetary policy changes.
Stehlík, Jan ; Štekláč, Jiří (advisor) ; Titze, Miroslav (referee)
This paper examines models of supervision and regulation over the financial market and their impact on volatility of interest rates according to monetary policy changes. Its goal is to judge if some of these models aren't less effective and cause higher volatility and if the assumption of market stability is provided. It looks into monetary policy changes and their impact on financial market, interest rates and their development in time of these changes. It analyzes correlation of monetary policy and financial market and gives characteristics of each of regulation models. Using the method of graphical analysis, this paper compares reactions of short- and longterm interest rates (Treasury bills and 10years government yields) in relevant countries during monetary change applications. It examines also official offered rate and real interbank rate and its' spreads. As indicator of financial market stress is used Libor-OIS spread. It evaluates the influence of models used in different countries in each given situation.
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Analysis of Influence of European Sovereign Debt Crisis on Financial institutions
Byrtusová, Eva ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Titze, Miroslav (referee)
Banking crisis and following sovereign debt crisis are the cause of some changes on the financial market. This thesis is mainly focused on the debt crisis and its impact on financial sector stability. Roots, consequences and probable solutions of the debt crisis are also examined. Among analysed solutions were included proposals for financial transaction tax, stability bonds and regulation under new concept of CRD IV, bail-in and federalization of the eurozone. Analysed are also ratings, fiscal policy and optimality of the euro currency areas and its impact on stability of financial institutions. According to results, some proposals could be contrary to each other if implemented in its present form. Or it can increase moral hazard of financial institutions. Another consequence is establishment of new regulations. On the other hand, positive is that financial institutions have endured the sovereign debt crisis.
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Contagion Risk in the Czech Financial System: A Network Analysis and Simulation Approach
Hausenblas, Václav ; Kubicová, Ivana ; Lešanovská, Jitka
This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.
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Vývoj trhu kreditních derivátů v období krize a jeho možná predikce
Dokulil, Miloš
This thesis is focused on the credit derivatives market. The aim is to identify and quantify the causal dependence of the development of credit derivatives market in relation to the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and on this basis the possible prediction. At first, it shows with the help of literature review of their present and history and gives a better look to the different types of credit derivatives. The following section deals with the use of these underlying instruments in practice, their possible trading, insurance, or speculation, whether on the OTC markets or organized exchanges. The following describes the events in the capital and commercial markets during the financial crisis that is between the years 2005-2010, from which are taken the data for the empirical part. The empirical part is based on correlation analysis (multiple regression model) of a few selected and described macroeconomic indicators enriched with Granger causality test. In the conclusion may be find the discussion of the results and possible recommendations for potential investors.
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World Financial Crisis In View Of Czech Public - May 2009
Červenka, Jan
According to May survey 62 % of Czechs are concerned with the situation regarding present world financial crisis, 36 % do not care about it. 85 % expect negative impact of crisis to economic development in the Czech Republic, 69 % of Czechs are convinced that the financial crisis will affect their personal situation or the situation of their households.
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