|
|
Population Characteristics of Voters: Evidence from the Czech Parliamentary Election
Černý, Jakub ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Želinský, Tomáš (referee)
In 2017, nine political parties were elected into the Czech Parliament, which is the greatest number in the history of the country. This thesis analyses the voter turnout and results of particular parties, using aggregated data on the municipal level. The goal is to find a spectrum of variables that would un- cover connections between the population characteristics of voters and their decisions to vote and to choose a political party. The method of weighted least squares is used for estimation and the results are tested for the presence of spa- tial autocorrelation. Subsequently, a spatial error model is used for the same analysis in order to observe spatial effects in the voting results and provide a comparison between the methods. There is found a significant negative con- nection between the voter turnout and the share of people facing distraints, unemployment, and the share of people with no education. Concerning the election results, the parties ANO, SPD, and KSCM receive greater support in municipalities with greater unemployment and lower shares of businessmen and people with university education. On the other hand, the parties ODS, Pirati, and TOP 09 evince exactly the opposite trends in these explanatory variables. JEL Classification H70, I21, I30, J10, J11 Keywords voting behaviour, voter...
|
|
|
The Rise of Extreme Right: Evidence from the Slovak Parliamentary Election
Kotrč, Michal ; Šťastná, Lenka (advisor) ; Čechová, Kristýna (referee)
What explains the late election success of extreme right in Slovakia? Al- though there are many studies on Western European extreme right parties, less attention is devoted to their Central European cousins. From a meth- odological perspective, even fewer studies consider spatial effects in their models. This thesis aims to explain electoral support for the extreme right Kotleba - People's Party Our Slovakia political party (Kotleba-L'SNS) in the 2016 parliamentary election using a broad range of socio-demographic, economic and cultural variables on the municipal level. In the first stage, we use ordinary least squares regression as our baseline model. As this model suffers from spatial error correlation, we use a spatial error model in the second stage. We managed to create a variable which removed Roma people from the group of unemployed and thus we disentangled the effect of Roma people and unemployment on the electoral support for the Kotleba-L'SNS party. In this way, we found a significant positive effect of share of un- employed people on the electoral support for the extreme right-wing party. Other estimates indicate a significant positive effect of share of the young people and share of people with a lower level of education on support for the Kotleba - People's Party Our Slovakia. On the contrary,...
|
guest ::
