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Armenia's accession to the Customs Union : gains of losses?
Ghazaryan, Sevan ; Svoboda, Karel (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee) ; Manchin, Miriam (referee)
Armenia is going to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (the Eurasian Customs Union) in the coming months. The author uses partial-equilibrium model to investigate and calculate trade diversion, trade creation and net welfare effects of accession on the Armenian economy. The thesis concludes that the membership in the customs union would lead to welfare losses and negative static effects. The main reason is the pure trade diversion effect on Armenia resulting from the increased external tariff rate. Adopting the common external tariff of the Eurasian Customs Union would raise the prices of those imported goods which flow from outside the customs union. As the majority of Armenian imports come from outside the Eurasian Customs Union, the increase in import prices would carry high social costs for the Armenian consumers. In addition, the absence of shared border with the customs union member-states substantially diminishes the potential benefits from possible non-tariff barrier facilitation. Therefore, the thesis strongly recommends against the accession.
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The Trade Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Based on Gravity Model.
Kong, Xiangyi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Chondrogiannis, Ilias (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...
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Armenia's accession to the Customs Union : gains of losses?
Ghazaryan, Sevan ; Svoboda, Karel (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee) ; Manchin, Miriam (referee)
Armenia is going to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (the Eurasian Customs Union) in the coming months. The author uses partial-equilibrium model to investigate and calculate trade diversion, trade creation and net welfare effects of accession on the Armenian economy. The thesis concludes that the membership in the customs union would lead to welfare losses and negative static effects. The main reason is the pure trade diversion effect on Armenia resulting from the increased external tariff rate. Adopting the common external tariff of the Eurasian Customs Union would raise the prices of those imported goods which flow from outside the customs union. As the majority of Armenian imports come from outside the Eurasian Customs Union, the increase in import prices would carry high social costs for the Armenian consumers. In addition, the absence of shared border with the customs union member-states substantially diminishes the potential benefits from possible non-tariff barrier facilitation. Therefore, the thesis strongly recommends against the accession.
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