|
| |
|
|
Forecasting Exchange Rates: A VAR Analysis
Mida, Jaroslav ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Ivanková, Kristýna (referee)
This thesis aims to out-of-sample forecast the USD/EUR exchange rate using four macroeconomic variables, namely ination, interest rate, unemployment rate and industrial production index. The model applied is the vector autoregressive model. We use monthly data for a period of 2002-2011 and use the data from 2012 in order to compare the forecast accuracy with the random walk, which is believed to outperform many models when forecasting for a short-time horizon, such as one year. We found out that the vector autogressive model beat the random walk in the period of one and three months, which was surprising. In the longer horizon of six, nine and twelve months, random walk, as expected, heavily outperformed vector autogressive model. The reasoning behind this could be that there was no clear trend in the USD/EUR exchange rate during this period.
|
|
| |
|
|
Active policy of employment Czech republic and Slovakia
Verčimáková, Kristína ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Petrášek, František (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on unemployment in Slovak and Czech Republic. It compares the situation in both countries in last four years. Main part of this work are active measures in the labor market, which are helping to fight with high levels of unemployment rate. Primary target will be analysis of individual chosen instruments comparable in both countries. The subject of research will be created working places, number of enrolled applicants, number of placed people in labor market and comparison between individual states.
|
guest ::
