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Price Impact of Order Book Events in Bitcoin Market
Erben, Marek ; Šíla, Jan (advisor) ; Baruník, Jozef (referee)
1 Abstract This thesis examines the price impact of order book events in the Bitcoin mar- ket. Using the data obtained from Binance exchange, the thesis shows that short-term price changes can be explained by high-frequency demand-supply interaction depicted in the Limit Order Book (LOB). The thesis demonstrates that the instantaneous price impact function has a non-linear shape, indicating that small and large orders have di↵erent e↵ects on price, potentially leading to opportunities for price manipulation and quasi-arbitrage. Additionally, the analysis confirms the inverse relation between the price impact coe cient and market depth. Furthermore, the thesis observes that there are no clear intraday patterns for the price impact coe cient. These findings provide valuable insights into the understanding of Bitcoin's price dynamics, benefiting traders, investors, and policymakers seeking to understand the complexities of the cryptocurrency market. 1
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Comparison of continuous and frequent batch auctions
Gottlieb, Oskar ; Šmíd, Martin (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
We simulate a fragmented market and study three types of agents and their interactions in continuous trading and frequent-batch auctions. We model the markets using the agent-based modeling approach. There are two exchanges on which one asset is being traded by zero-intelligence (ZI) traders, market makers and a latency arbitrageur. The former two agents are marked as slow traders, the arbitrageur is a fast trader - fast trader has perfect information about the market, slow traders are dependent on the (possibly lagged) NBBO information provided by the regulator. Our main metric is the surplus of ZI traders, we also measure other market's characteristics. We then simulate the market for different delays of the NBBO delay and we find that under certain conditions and until certain length, the batch auctions are beneficial to ZI traders, as they reduce the advantage and therefore the profit of the fast trader.
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The Stigler-Luckock model for a limit order book
Fornůsková, Monika ; Swart, Jan (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
THE STIGLER-LUCKOCK MODEL FOR A LIMIT ORDER BOOK Abstract One of the types of modern-day markets are so-called order-driven markets whose core component is a database of all incoming buy and sell orders (order book). The main goal of this thesis is to extend the Stigler-Luckock model for order books to give a better insight into the price forming process and behaviour of the market participants themselves. The model introduced in this thesis focuses on a comparison of behaviour and various strategies of market makers who are sophisticated market participants profiting from extensive trading. The market is described using Markov chains, and the strategies are compared using Monte Carlo simulations and game theory. The results showed that market makers' orders should have small spread and large volumes. The final model compares two strategies in which market makers monitor their portfolio. In case of having more cash than asset (or vice versa), they shift prices of their orders to equalise the portfolio. The model recommends checking the market quite often, but acting conservatively, which means not changing prices that frequently and not jumping to conclusions just from a small imbalance in the portfolio.
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Comparison of continuous and frequent batch auctions
Gottlieb, Oskar ; Šmíd, Martin (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
We simulate a fragmented market and study three types of agents and their interactions in continuous trading and frequent-batch auctions. We model the markets using the agent-based modeling approach. There are two exchanges on which one asset is being traded by zero-intelligence (ZI) traders, market makers and a latency arbitrageur. The former two agents are marked as slow traders, the arbitrageur is a fast trader - fast trader has perfect information about the market, slow traders are dependent on the (possibly lagged) NBBO information provided by the regulator. Our main metric is the surplus of ZI traders, we also measure other market's characteristics. We then simulate the market for different delays of the NBBO delay and we find that under certain conditions and until certain length, the batch auctions are beneficial to ZI traders, as they reduce the advantage and therefore the profit of the fast trader.
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Market Microstructure of Stock Exchanges in the Visegrad Region
Fraňo, Filip ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Buzková, Petra (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to compare stock exchanges in the Visegrad region with respect to the market microstructure theory, the field of economics studying the outcome of trading under specific rules. First, commonly used structures of markets are presented and the motivation why economists should be concerned with the design of markets is provided. In the main part of the work, besides the basic attributes of these markets, their market structures and trading systems are compared. Moreover, the price behavior of High Capitalization and Mid Capitalization segments of companies from the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE), and the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) is examined. Finally, the method developed by Roll (1984) is implemented to estimate the bid-ask spreads of the largest companies listed on the BSE, the PSE, and the WSE. The results that do not correspond with previous empirical studies probably stem from relatively low liquidity of these markets and unusual price behavior during crisis.
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Market making jako obchodní strategie
Čamaj, Matej ; Stádník, Bohumil (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze market making trading strategy and explore possibilities of using such strategy for intraday trading on the markets with the limit order book. In theoretical part we prove profitability of specified market making strategy under certain assumptions and moreover analyze effect of change of parameters on the performance of the strategy using one dimensional stochastic processes. Next the assumption of constant fair price is relaxed which leads to deterioration of profitability of these strategies. Because one dimensional stochastic processes do not capture price creation in the real world, we propose stochastic model of intraday trading in the next chapter. Advantage of this approach is that we can observe state of the limit order book during whole trading session and therefore better simulate conditions for test of the strategies. Although proposed model exhibit many phenomenons observed in empirical data like volatility clustering, in some situations it produces unrealistically high spread caused by the construction of the model, because arrivals of market and limit orders are modeled as independent processes. Another disadvantages are need of relatively extensive data for model calibration and high sensitivity of model to change of parameters. Lastly we test three different market making strategies under different choice of model parameters and show that expected profitability is positive in all cases.
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Limits to the Efficiency of the Capital Market
Vyhlídka, Jan ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Lopušník, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of this study is to gather insights into market efficiency and mechanisms that work in the financial markets. It provides a framework with an emphasis on liquidity and the failure of arbitrage that deepens our understanding of various financial crises. Described mechanisms are particularly relevant for the last financial crises - including 2007-2009, LTCM, and dot-com bubble. In the first chapter the concept of efficient markets is introduced. In the second chapter it is challenged from the point of view of noise trader theory and limits of arbitrage. The third chapter deals with market microstructure and liquidity. Last chapter shows importance and adverse effects of externalities, particularly of those causing liquidity spirals.
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Selected Models of Exchange Rate Determination
Vrubel, Tomáš ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The aim of this Master Thesis is to summarize the modern theoretical models of fundamental determination of exchange rates. The Thesis contains of Introduction, four explanatory chapters and the conclusion. The first chapter provides the definition of traditional premises (PPP, IRP, expectations) and in the end of the chapter the 5-equation model is introduced. The second chapter focuses the attention on both equilibrium (Bilson-Frenkel) and non equilibrium (Dornbusch, Frankel) monetary models. In the end of the chapter there are also briefly mentioned Hooper-Morton's and Girton-Ropers models. The third chapter brings in the risk and it is focused on portfolio models. The last chapter describes the Lyons-Evans model of market microstructure based on order flow.
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A Simple Decision Problem of a Market Maker
Šmíd, Martin
We formulate a simple decision model of a market maker maximizing an utility from his consumption. We reduce the dimensionality of the problem to one. We nd that, given our setting, the quotes set by the market maker depend on the inventory of the traded asset but not on the amount of cash held by the market maker.
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Optimální strategie na trhu s limitními objednávkami
Šmíd, Martin
We define a decision problem of an investor, trading continuously at a limit order market, maximizing a utility from his wealth at a random time horizon. We show that, in special cases (e.g. risk neutrality, quadratic or exponential utility function), the problem may be factorized and, given additional restrictions, it may even be solved.
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