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Global Economic Outlook - January 2017
Česká národní banka
This year’s first issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Starting with this issue, our regular monitoring will include the United Kingdom, due not least to one of the most keenly awaited events of this year: the actual start of Brexit. In this issue, our analysis focuses on one of the most discussed phenomena of the day –the decline in equilibrium real interest rates in the global economy. We present two theories –one that attributes the phenomenon of low interest rates to structural changes and speaks in favour of a permanent decline in rates, and another arguing that the fall is temporary and based on cyclical swings caused mainly by the financial cycle.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2016, No.2). Volume 14, Number 2, November 2016, Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies
Česká národní banka
Issues connected with the financial cycle have gained prominence in recent decades, as they form the key component of the time dimension of the newly formed macroprudential policies. Analysis of the financial cycle covers a combination of purely theoretical models (explaining different channels of propagation of the financial cycle to the real economy) and practical applications estimating the financial cycle (directly applicable to macroprudential policies such as the setting of countercyclical capital buffers). Financial cycle issues also influence the debate of the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. This edition of the Bulletin presents four articles that address financial cycle issues. Two of them are theoretical, one is purely empirical and one covers issues related to the interaction of the different policies conducted within the central bank.
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Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic
Babecký, Jan ; Franta, Michal ; Ryšánek, Jakub
In this paper we explore the potential of the DSGE-VAR modelling approach for examining the effects of fiscal policy. The combination of the VAR and DSGE frameworks leads theoretically to more accurate estimates of impulse responses and consequently of fiscal multipliers. Moreover, the framework allows for discussion about the differences of the effects of fiscal shocks in DSGE and VAR models and to some extent discussion about misspecification in fiscal DSGE models. The DSGE-VAR model is estimated on Czech data covering the period from 1996 to 2011 at quarterly frequency. The government consumption multiplier attains a value close to 0.4 at the horizon of four years. The public investment multiplier is about 0.4 higher, which confirms findings in the literature. On the other hand, the DSGE model alone implies a similar government consumption multiplier but a much lower public investment multiplier, suggesting misspecification of the fiscal DSGE model.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
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Global Economy Outlook - November 2016
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the relationship between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate over the last ten years. The results show that the inverse relationship between the Brent price and the nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar still applies, helping dampen fluctuations in the dollar price of oil in “non-dollar” economies.
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Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
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Intraday Dynamics of Euro Area Sovereign Credit Risk Contagion
Komárek, Luboš ; Ters, Kristyna ; Urban, Jörg
We examine the role of the CDS and bond markets during and before the recent euro area sovereign debt crisis as transmission channels for credit risk contagion between sovereign entities. We analyse an intraday dataset for GIIPS countries as well as Germany, France and central European countries. Our findings suggest that, prior to the crisis, the CDS and bond markets were similarly important in the transmission of financial shock contagion, but that the importance of the bond market waned during the crisis. We find flight-to-safety effects during the crisis in the German bond market that are not present in the pre-crisis sample. Our estimated sovereign risk contagion was greater during the crisis, with an average timeline of one to two hours in GIIPS countries. By using an exogenous macroeconomic news shock, we can show that, during the crisis period, increased credit risk was not related to economic fundamentals. Further, we find that central European countries were not affected by sovereign credit risk contagion, independent of their debt level and currency.
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Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: Rivals or Teammates?
Malovaná, Simona ; Frait, Jan
This paper sheds some light on situations in which monetary and macroprudential policies may interact (and potentially get into conflict) and contributes to the discussion about the coordination of those policies. Using data for the Czech Republic and five euro area countries we show that monetary tightening has a negative impact on the credit-to-GDP ratio and the non-risk-weighted bank capital ratio (i.e. a positive impact on bank leverage), while these effects have strengthened considerably since mid-2011. This supports the view that accommodative monetary policy contributes to a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, i.e. it boosts the credit cycle. On the other hand, the effect of the higher bank capital ratio is associated with some degree of uncertainty. For these and other reasons, coordination of the two policies is necessary to avoid an undesirable policy mix preventing effective achievement of the main objectives in the two policy areas.
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Central bank monitoring - June 2009
Česká národní banka
ocument contains latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. The Spotlight article "Non-conventional monetary policy of selected central banks". Selected speech: Ben Bernanke on the Fed’s balance sheet
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